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January 27-28 Clipper


wisconsinwx

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I love it when you're optimistic!! :lmao::)

I'm feeling a little better about it. IWX was saying yesterday around an inch and today 1-2", so I'll say .9".

LAF has overachieved in every event this winter. Why buck the trend? I should have gone 1"+. :D

Really though, any snow is good snow to me.

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40° here, so expect a mix at the beginning. MKE not expecting 2" amounts anymore < 1" generally. Tom Skilling's RPM model still has 1-2" amounts over N IL, S WI.

000

FXUS63 KMKX 271644 AAA

AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1044 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

.UPDATE...

SOME MODELS...NAM...DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW AT MADISON UNTIL 6 PM

WHILE OTHERS STAY ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF SNOW ARRIVING THERE AROUND

4 OR 5 PM. THE BIG CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS HOW MUCH THEY HAVE BACKED

OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERN WI. SURFACE PROGS NOW SHOW QPF

MAX AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH A

DEFINITE WEAKER AREA OF QPF OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ONLY MODEL NOT

SHOWING THIS SPLIT IN THE QPF IS THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL. THE

BIG PROBLEM WILL BE THE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE IT CAN BEGIN

SNOWING AT THE SURFACE.

WILL BE KNOCKING DOWN EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE

A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...RATHER THAN

AN INCH OR MORE. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN QPF

EAST OF MADISON THIS EVENING...SO MILWAUKEE MAY END UP WITH SLIGHTLY

HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN MADISON.

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12z ECMWF

LSE:

 
SAT 00Z 28-JAN   0.0    -6.1    1011	  77	  98    0.02	 536	 528   
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  -2.0    -9.0    1013	  72	  54    0.02	 529	 518

MSN:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  -0.4    -6.3    1011	  84	  59    0.02	 534	 525   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -6.7    -9.3    1014	  80	  18    0.01	 524	 513

MKE:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.5    -6.5    1011	  78	 100    0.01	 536	 527   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -1.0    -8.8    1011	  65	  56    0.05	 525	 516

SBM:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.3    -6.9    1009	  77	 100    0.01	 534	 526   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -2.1    -8.9    1009	  70	  65    0.06	 523	 516

CID:

 
SAT 00Z 28-JAN   1.8    -4.8    1015	  60	  98    0.01	 542	 530   
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  -1.0    -8.8    1016	  67	  38    0.01	 534	 521

DVN:

 
SAT 00Z 28-JAN   1.5    -5.0    1016	  70	  99    0.01	 543	 531   
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.5    -7.6    1015	  82	  63    0.04	 536	 525 

PIA:

 
SAT 00Z 28-JAN   2.3    -3.6    1017	  68	 100    0.01	 547	 533   
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.6    -5.7    1016	  95	  99    0.16	 541	 528   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -3.0    -8.6    1019	  60	  33    0.04	 531	 516

RFD:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  -0.2    -6.8    1013	  87	  98    0.04	 537	 526   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -3.9    -8.8    1015	  72	  15    0.02	 526	 514

ORD:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.3    -6.2    1013	  87	  98    0.04	 539	 528   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.1    -8.4    1012	  70	  29    0.05	 527	 518

MDW:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.6    -6.1    1014	  89	  98    0.05	 540	 529   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.2    -8.2    1013	  72	  30    0.05	 528	 518

STL:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   2.1    -3.0    1017	  91	  99    0.04	 548	 534   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -1.5    -7.2    1023	  74	  30    0.03	 543	 525

DEC:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.9    -4.2    1016	  91	  99    0.07	 545	 532   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -1.1    -7.6    1019	  75	  35    0.08	 537	 522

PAH:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   3.9    -2.6    1022	  80	  27    0.01	 553	 536

IND:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.6    -1.9    1017	  85	  59    0.02	 548	 535   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.8    -5.4    1015	  94	  99    0.05	 542	 529   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   2.3    -8.6    1022	  43	  12    0.01	 536	 519

LAF:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.9    -3.5    1016	  91	  76    0.05	 545	 532   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.9    -7.2    1015	  92	  60    0.08	 537	 525

VPZ:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.5    -5.7    1015	  90	 100    0.05	 541	 530   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.3    -7.9    1012	  81	  40    0.08	 531	 521

OKK:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN   0.6    -3.9    1016	  88	  89    0.04	 545	 533   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.8    -6.4    1014	  92	  99    0.08	 538	 527   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   1.4    -9.3    1020	  41	  36    0.01	 531	 515

FWA:

 
SAT 06Z 28-JAN  -0.1    -4.3    1016	  77	  89    0.01	 545	 532   
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.7    -6.0    1012	  91	  99    0.09	 537	 527   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   1.0    -9.0    1017	  46	  31    0.02	 529	 515

HAO:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   1.2    -3.9    1015	  86	  97    0.01	 546	 534   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   3.2    -7.4    1020	  56	  18    0.04	 541	 525

DAY:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.5    -4.2    1015	  85	  98    0.01	 544	 533   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   2.3    -7.8    1019	  55	  30    0.04	 538	 523

CMH:

 
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   2.7    -7.1    1017	  78	  21    0.04	 540	 526

TDZ:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.4    -4.8    1012	  89	  99    0.04	 539	 529   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   2.6    -8.3    1013	  61	  14    0.06	 528	 518

CLE:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.2    -4.1    1014	  83	  93    0.01	 542	 531   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   1.8    -7.0    1012	  84	  38    0.04	 533	 524   
SUN 00Z 29-JAN  -0.8   -10.7    1019	  55	  55    0.02	 530	 514

MKG:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.8    -7.3    1007	  87	  89    0.14	 527	 521   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN  -1.0   -11.4    1014	  66	  52    0.03	 521	 511

GRR:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.0    -7.1    1008	  93	  98    0.12	 529	 523   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN  -0.6   -11.0    1013	  68	  31    0.07	 522	 512   
SUN 00Z 29-JAN  -2.6   -11.1    1017	  57	  89    0.01	 526	 513

BTL:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -0.1    -7.1    1009	  93	  99    0.10	 532	 524   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN  -0.3   -10.5    1014	  65	  26    0.06	 524	 513   
SUN 00Z 29-JAN  -3.8   -11.1    1018	  56	  67    0.01	 528	 513

ADG:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN   0.1    -6.0    1011	  91	  97    0.05	 536	 527   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   1.8    -9.0    1013	  53	  13    0.05	 526	 516

DTW:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -0.3    -6.3    1011	  89	  98    0.02	 536	 528   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   2.2    -8.1    1010	  60	  34    0.06	 525	 517

PHN:

 
SAT 12Z 28-JAN  -1.1    -7.4    1010	  83	  99    0.01	 535	 527   
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   2.6    -7.1    1007	  74	  76    0.07	 524	 519   
SUN 00Z 29-JAN  -3.2   -11.4    1015	  62	  36    0.01	 523	 511

YKF:

 
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   0.6    -6.9    1006	  85	 100    0.08	 528	 523   
SUN 00Z 29-JAN  -2.8   -10.4    1012	  68	  41    0.07	 521	 512

YYZ:

 
SAT 18Z 28-JAN   1.6    -6.6    1006	  82	  99    0.04	 530	 525   
SUN 00Z 29-JAN  -0.7    -9.6    1010	  70	  67    0.05	 522	 514

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don't see this over coming the warmth for us to see snow

With low 20° dewpoints, evaporative cooling should drop temperatures enough. Probably see liquid or a mix to start. I don't think anyone north of I-80 will see more than 1-1.25".

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