IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I was just taking a look at the long range on the 12z GFS and I was intrigued. I'm no expert, but by the looks of this map we have a large spike in the PNA. It would also seem to show that the PV gets shifted east and centered over Hudson Bay. At the same time, we have high lattitude ridging over Greenland. Then the coldest air we have seen in quite some time is ushered in with -20 850 temps clearing the coast and -30 850 temps into northern New England. So what does this all mean? Right now mostly dry and very cold. I'm not sure what -20 to -30 temps at the 850 level transition to at the surface, but that has to be very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Believe me, this winter was somewhat catchable in its poorness when you look back now. So many indices popping similar to years like 1999-00 and other poor ones but alot of people got all caught up in the deal that because of the changed PDO phase and recent apparent NAO phase change we could not see a 1999-00. The thing is the NAO can have raging + and - years within the dominant opposing phase cycle all the time and generally La Ninas are bad for the NE U.S., especially the coast, all that considered too many people were going cold this year. I would tend to agree with some of the meteorologists that perhaps the insanely cold stratosphere in November could have ultimately caused the entire thing to go bad because it ultimately forced snow pack into areas we don't generally want to see it going too and set the whole negative feedback mechanism into full blown effect. What I find to happen quite often with LR forecasts is after the bust happens, we look back and say, "Oh, I should have seen that factor(s) and thus should have weighted that more heavily in my outlook." Hindsight is 20/20. One of the most difficult aspects in fashioning a long term outlook, IMO, is the quantity/percentage weight ascribed to each particular variable. For example, this past October, I was looking at a few conflicting signals, and ultimately giving more weight to the cold indicators rendered my winter outlook terrible at the end of the day. Last winter I found that the presence of a low geomagnetic field correlated highly to a negative north atlantic oscillation. Even though low geomag activity persisted this winter, that correlation (and it was a fairly strong one) failed pretty badly, which destroyed my NAO forecast, thereby destroying my sensible weather forecast. Looking back, we had a major spike in solar flux late oct/early November, and when coupled with the westerly wind anomalies in the upper stratosphere (+QBO still present) I believe it at least significantly helped to initiate the strong vortex/+AO event for Nov through January. In addition, I've done some research on the NAO/AO behaviour in November, and based on that, it suggested that this winter would feature a positive/strongly positive NAO/AO. But that's the beauty of LR forecasting although it is extremely difficult, learning new things every year. How do I balance statistics, pattern persistance, correlations, analogs, forecast model data, and consequently weight each variable accordingly, to come up with the desired result. I think this year, the pattern for the winter pretty much became evident/revealed itself by late Nov/early Dec, which is also why, after this winter, I've acquried the opinion that winter outlooks before late November are playing with fire big time. Even late November is difficult, and ideally, one would want to do an outlook in early/mid December (obviously can't b/c its already met winter). Bottom line, skill falls off a cliff beyond a month or two in advance. John - very nice post, and I pretty much agree with everything. February looks fairly benign to me w/ a continued unfavorable tropical forcing and little NAO blocking. On the bright side, the AO is much lower as you pointed out. This will be the difference IMO when we're having +PNA pulses - that we'll get more cold air into the Northeast than we did w/ the raging +AO of Dec and early Jan. No, not severe cold, but I think seasonable cold can get into the Northeast early/mid Feb, and if we time the +PNA pulses well, maybe even a light or mdoerate snow. But let's take one step at a time. February looks better than Dec and Jan, but again, that's like saying a caveman is more attractive than an ogre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Thanks for the kind words! I definitely agree in regards to the Alaskan vortex. It has been a semi-permanent feature of our pattern for much of the winter. We were able to lose it for a while several weeks ago -- but at that time the Atlantic and Canadian pattern were in shambles with the PV oriented over Greenland and much of Western and Central Canada in above normal anomalies. Shortly thereafter, the Alaskan vortex returned and the pattern turned ugly again. I agree in regards to the temperature anomalies and little help from the PNA. But I think, if we can get enough amplification there, we could see a big storm on the East Coast around super bowl weekend or around that time. Model guidance this afternoon is still pretty firm and anomalous with that feature with a ridge axis over Boise and positive height anomalies into Western Canada. Despite the lack of an arctic air source, the amplification could be big especially comparatively to what we've seen this season. We will see. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f276.gif http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f300.gif I'd be more optimistic, if I hadn't seen this before. Remember the big Canadian ridge, that models where showing early this month? Anyway, the trough looks transient on the 12z GEFS. Right now, I think it's just another cold shot without a major winter storm along the coast. Also none of the GFS ensemble members show the monster PV over Canada, that 12z OP GFS has, at 288hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Thank you for the kind words. That's correct. I busted with that end-of-winter call. Hopefully, upon reviewing things afterward, I have learned some things that will allow for better insight should such a situation arise again. Needless to say, long-range forecasting remains a high-risk exercise and that means that there will be more busts at some point in the future. Actually Don, you busted with your late winter blocking call in 2009-2010 also. You said the blocking would return come March 2010. It never did. The great winter ended in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Actually Don, you busted with your late winter blocking call in 2009-2010 also. You said the blocking would return come March 2010. It never did. The great winter ended in February. IIRC, we had blocking in March 2010 (hence the great March noreaster), so he didn't fail there, we simply didn't have any cold air left to create snow. Just because you equate blocking and winter, doesnt mean he busted, blocking and winter weather are corelations, not certainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Too bad this winter sucks, but it's all a learning experience. Hopefully in the future we learn from it, and enjoy a much snowier winter next year. And very classy as well for those who put predictions out there to admit busts, acknowledge where, and how it might help them to improve for next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 IIRC, we had blocking in March 2010 (hence the great March noreaster), so he didn't fail there, we simply didn't have any cold air left to create snow. Just because you equate blocking and winter, doesnt mean he busted, blocking and winter weather are corelations, not certainties. I remember that-the air was completely stale due to too much blocking for too long-we could not get any fresh arctic air at that point...if we had the late Feb 1888 style storm would have been biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I remember that-the air was completely stale due to too much blocking for too long-we could not get any fresh arctic air at that point...if we had the late Feb 1888 style storm would have been biblical well, it wasn't the prolonged blocking that killed the cold air, the globe was uber warm from the nino, there wasn't a large supply to begin with and a lot of it was backed over the other side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 please...every model has show cold and snow 10 days out all winter long... Do you think the models tend to default to seasonal patterning after maybe 200+ hours out? In a typical wintertime pattern those solutions are much more likely and the input parameters are more or less ignored. Its completely true that every model has shown a major cold outbreak 10 days out for the past 45+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Too bad this winter sucks, but it's all a learning experience. Hopefully in the future we learn from it, and enjoy a much snowier winter next year. And very classy as well for those who put predictions out there to admit busts, acknowledge where, and how it might help them to improve for next time. If we could manange one more event, say 4-8 inches, I wouldn't feel so bad then. I just would hate if we went out without seeing snow again until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 some hope for early feb if we can get a healthy PNA to amplify one of these many s/w's that enter the u.s..GFS is still signaling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 some hope for early feb if we can get a healthy PNA to amplify one of these many s/w's that enter the u.s..GFS is still signaling it truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 If we could manange one more event, say 4-8 inches, I wouldn't feel so bad then. I just would hate if we went out without seeing snow again until next winter. Feb is usually the mildest/calmest month in Nina winters. What you get in Ninas normally is front-loaded. I guess if we see a real improvement in the pattern we can luck out, but if we get a so-so pattern, it'll likely disappoint. We might get a rogue like 3/1/09 or 3/15/99, but even one of those still leaves us below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This is interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Feb is usually the mildest/calmest month in Nina winters. What you get in Ninas normally is front-loaded. I guess if we see a real improvement in the pattern we can luck out, but if we get a so-so pattern, it'll likely disappoint. We might get a rogue like 3/1/09 or 3/15/99, but even one of those still leaves us below average. Oh I've given up on reaching average. I just would like to see one more snow event around here. I would hate for the winter to go out like with more benign 40s and low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The large building PNA ridge will at least give us one more shot of seeing some cold temperatures this winter and if we had any shortwave present or anything, we could see a snowstorm. Feb 2006 had a similar massive PNA ridge that was timed perfectly, probably not going to see the same this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Question, do solar flares have any affect on the pattern? If so will the recent solar events have any impact in the short-medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Question, do solar flares have any affect on the pattern? If so will the recent solar events have any impact in the short-medium range? HM and others are discussing it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The large building PNA ridge will at least give us one more shot of seeing some cold temperatures this winter and if we had any shortwave present or anything, we could see a snowstorm. Feb 2006 had a similar massive PNA ridge that was timed perfectly, probably not going to see the same this year though. February '06 also had some blocking near Greenland; yes we had a monster PNA also; but the blocking helped; the H500 low closed off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This is interesting..... February '06 also had some blocking near Greenland; yes we had a monster PNA also; but the blocking helped; the H500 low closed off... Note the second date on the Super Ensemble Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Lol. Bob, I didn't even see that. If we can get something like that in this horrible season, it's a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Lol. Bob, I didn't even see that. If we can get something like that in this horrible season, it's a blessing. The January 30th 1964 date stuck out to me also. That February turned out to be a very snowy, cold month. One storm that month dropped 11" of snow on February 10th, the very day i was born. I think being a snow lover has stuck with me since birth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The January 30th 1964 date stuck out to me also. That February turned out to be a very snowy, cold month. One storm that month dropped 11" of snow on February 10th, the very day i was born. I think being a snow lover has stuck with me since birth! January 1964 also had a monster event earlier in the month.. 24-30+ amounts in PA, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 January 1964 also had a monster event earlier in the month.. 24-30+ amounts in PA, NY. The winter of 63-64 was one of those great winters, here in Lancaster as i'm sure it was up your way. December was 6 degrees below normal with 11" of snow. January was a hair above normal with 17" of snow. 14" of those falling in the storm you mentioned. February was 4 degrees below normal with 24" of snow. March was a degree above normal but still managed to bring 7" of snow. Wall to wall winter FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The winter of 63-64 was one of those great winters, here in Lancaster as i'm sure it was up your way. December was 6 degrees below normal with 11" of snow. January was a hair above normal with 17" of snow. 14" of those falling in the storm you mentioned. February was 4 degrees below normal with 24" of snow. March was a degree above normal but still managed to bring 7" of snow. Wall to wall winter FTW! That is one heck of a season indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The winter of 63-64 was one of those great winters, here in Lancaster as i'm sure it was up your way. December was 6 degrees below normal with 11" of snow. January was a hair above normal with 17" of snow. 14" of those falling in the storm you mentioned. February was 4 degrees below normal with 24" of snow. March was a degree above normal but still managed to bring 7" of snow. Wall to wall winter FTW! that winter was classic...The coldest period was mid December...There was a 6-7" snowstorm on the 23rd...A real White Christmas...News Years day had sleet and rain with a thaw that lasted a week or so...A 13" blizzard on the 13th...Another thaw a week later helped make that month milder than average...February had frequent storms...Back to back light snowfalls on 2/10-11...on Saturday night 2/15 wet snow developed but changed to rain after an inch or two in the early morning hours...It ended as light snow flurries...late on 2/18 wet snow developed around the same time as the last storm but didn't change to rain although it was supposed to...It was an all day wet snow event with 4-5" accumulating in the city...That evening the snow became powder and ended early on the 20th...5-7" was the final totals...Temperatures were cold but not very cold...The month ended with a 2-3" snowfall that started late in the afternoon on the 28th and ended early am on the 29th...There was some light wet snow on March 12th during the day with around an inch on cars and grass...The afternoon of 3/21 was cool and cloudy but I played in a softball game...That evening rain developed but quickly mixed with wet snow and changed to wet snow before midnight...The snow ended before dawn with almost 5" accumulating...That morning the snow melted fast and I played in another softball game that afternoon in 50 degree temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Do you think the models tend to default to seasonal patterning after maybe 200+ hours out? In a typical wintertime pattern those solutions are much more likely and the input parameters are more or less ignored. Its completely true that every model has shown a major cold outbreak 10 days out for the past 45+ days. The GFS heavily skews towards climo I believe beyond 240 hours, hence why it often will show a cold pattern in the winter and at least a relatively mild pattern in summer during those periods...it may not necessarily show 588dm heights in summer from 252-384 hours but it will generally show some sort of summer type pattern at 500mb in that range even if you're in the midst of a very cool summer where no such pattern is ever going to develop such as 1996 or 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 HIYO! Weather x, looks good right? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble500mbHGHTNA240.gif Granted its smoothed by this point, but you can still see lower heights over greenland, the Davis Straights and eastern Canada. And while it's a robust PNA riding signal, the trough looks progressive on the exit side. I believe maybe it was trials or someone else who said if possibly a s/w dropping down from the ridge can amplify enough to dig the trough a bit deeper. That's our best shot, because anything that would coke u p the coast would be quick moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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