burgertime Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Since no one really commented on the Euro it was just "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens ? You would think with a high in the 20s lows would be near 0. Meteostar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't understand some on this site.If the models show the SE warm most on here say it 100 % true .Going to be a torch.But if the models show cold and stormy then it like no it will change .i know it been horrible this winter butthis pattern can't go on forever.I'm feeling when it does change it may stay that way for a while. Even last winter you had to take storms and their tracks with a grain of salt. It's just the nature of the beast. Given how the first half of winter has been you typically favor the average. So many are going to downplay this storm threat simply because those are the odds. It certainly won't stop us from picking about model runs though trying to find everything positive we can for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Since no one really commented on the Euro it was just "meh". I don't know Burger. The trough late next week was not nearly as deep compared to the previous run...but that's not the main event as far as I'm concerned. Thereafter, there's a strengthening low in the Aleutian Islands, with a tall ridge going up into eastern Alaska. That's still potentially a below normal temp setup for the SE if you roll that forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If you look at the northern hemisphere there is a TON of noise in the Pacific, yet there is still a ridge centered near the west coast for much of the run. It also looks to have some split flow potential. That has been shown more than once in the past couple of days. Time will tell how this all plays out, but I feel confident we are heading down a much better road in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Since no one really commented on the Euro it was just "meh". It was certainly funky. I'm not sure I buy the closed high breaking off, and then that high getting shunted south by the low riding through alaska and into greenland. Something doesn't look right about that solution. But - to be fair- the big positive tilted trough in the east looked strange too. Not sure what to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't know Burger. The trough late next week was not nearly as deep compared to the previous run...but that's not the main event as far as I'm concerned. Thereafter, there's a strengthening low in the Aleutian Islands, with a tall ridge going up into eastern Alaska. That's still a below normal temp setup if you roll that forward. Exactly, don't look at the lower 48 only, b/c if you do that it does look "meh", but there are several good things continuing to show on this particular run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't understand some on this site.If the models show the SE warm most on here say it 100 % true .Going to be a torch.But if the models show cold and stormy then it like no it will change .i know it been horrible this winter butthis pattern can't go on forever.I'm feeling when it does change it may stay that way for a while. I don't know anyone who has said they believe anything with 100% certainty unless it already happened. But let me give you some insight as to why people have more confidence in warm forecast than cold this year. If you look at the warm period we have had the teleconnections are all in the complete wrong direction. That points to warm weather around here almost no matter what with the exception of a brief cold shot, we have about a 0% chance of locked in cold with the way teleconnections have been this year. The cold modeled this time definitely has some issues with it getting locked in. This cold threat seems very PNA driven and the NAO is not cooperating which would lead people to believe that it's gonna be short lived. If anything is "going to stay for a while" teleconnections are going to have to cooperate and that is not the case at this point and nothing suggests that a long period of blocking is going to setup right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't know Burger. The trough late next week was not nearly as deep compared to the previous run...but that's not the main event as far as I'm concerned. Thereafter, there's a strengthening low in the Aleutian Islands, with a tall ridge going up into eastern Alaska. That's still potentially a below normal temp setup for the SE if you roll that forward. Exactly, don't look at the lower 48 only, b/c if you do that it does look "meh", but there are several good things continuing to show on this particular run of the Euro. TBH I was just looking at the surface map. So in the LR it just looked pretty seasonal with no big chances..thus the "meh". I did notice even on the surface that lat week action looked like it had potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Operational is Meh...not as impressive as 00Z with the cold as Cheez alluded to via the ensemble support so it should not be overly surprising. However, at this range, prefer to see the 12z ens before getting too interested/uninterested about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't know anyone who has said they believe anything with 100% certainty unless it already happened. But let me give you some insight as to why people have more confidence in warm forecast than cold this year. If you look at the warm period we have had the teleconnections are all in the complete wrong direction. That points to warm weather around here almost no matter what with the exception of a brief cold shot, we have about a 0% chance of locked in cold with the way teleconnections have been this year. The cold modeled this time definitely has some issues with it getting locked in. This cold threat seems very PNA driven and the NAO is not cooperating which would lead people to believe that it's gonna be short lived. If anything is "going to stay for a while" teleconnections are going to have to cooperate and that is not the case at this point and nothing suggests that a long period of blocking is going to setup right now. Nicely put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Operational is Meh...not as impressive as 00Z with the cold as Cheez alluded to via the ensemble support so it should not be overly surprising. However, at this range, prefer to see the 12z ens before getting too interested/uninterested about it... why do you hate winter so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 why do you hate winter so much? Winter and the Pansies...both losers this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The Euro ensembles are very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The Euro ensembles are very meh This year it's positive if they aren't showing a torch! How are you doing on rain? I'm up over 4. I haven't had any .1 wonders like I use to have to accept while the rest were complaining about too much water. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 This year it's positive if they aren't showing a torch! How are you doing on rain? I'm up over 4. I haven't had any .1 wonders like I use to have to accept while the rest were complaining about too much water. Tony After getting screwed all spring/summer/fall, I have done very well the past 2 months, almost 12" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Man, nobody is talking about the 18z GFS. In the LR it is a dream run. It shows some potential for at least some mixed precip at the 180 hour time zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I think the first question is the depiction of a storm in 7-8 days correct? Or is it possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Man, nobody is talking about the 18z GFS. In the LR it is a dream run. It shows some potential for at least some mixed precip at the 180 hour time zone. The models cannot latch on to a scenario. That is an indicator of something extreme warm or cold that may happen. I wish we coul have 2 good days of tracking a winter potential. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The models cannot latch on to a scenario. That is an indicator of something extreme warm or cold that may happen. I wish we coul have 2 good days of tracking a winter potential. LOL I do agree, but just for fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I do agree, but just for fun: FROPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 FROPA? I went and checked out the run, and I don't think it's a FROPA. There's a system beginning to form in the gulf near the end of the run, and then it moseys it's way up the coast. Allan's site actually prints out some light snow accumulation across most of NC, but of course this is currently in fantasyland. We can only hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I do agree, but just for fun: Amen to that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 FROPA? It could be anything...But maybe we have cold air and a storm somewhere. It's more than we've had all winter (model wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Folks, Not that this means diddly, but for the fun of it, the 18Z Goofy ens. mean has a miller A going across C. FL pen. on 2/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Folks, Not that this means diddly, but for the fun of it, the 18Z Goofy ens. mean has a miller A going across C. FL pen. on 2/12. LOL....this winter has reduced even larry to this...You used to do verification on 850 temps in cold waves...you should save and report back in two weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Folks, Not that this means diddly, but for the fun of it, the 18Z Goofy ens. mean has a miller A going across C. FL pen. on 2/12. We definitly can not talk about details of individual storms 14 days out, but if we can discusse the potential pattern. Most have mentioned a huge western ridge but with a continued postive NAO. The way I see that type of pattern would allow for some southern (maybe very southern) storms to shot out to sea like you described. Not saying it will but the pattern discussed would increase the possibilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Folks, Not that this means diddly, but for the fun of it, the 18Z Goofy ens. mean has a miller A going across C. FL pen. on 2/12. 2/12..sound familiar? 2/12/10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 LOL....this winter has reduced even larry to this...You used to do verification on 850 temps in cold waves...you should save and report back in two weeks! We are desperate, even here in the mtns. This winter is horrible for snow fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I think the first question is the depiction of a storm in 7-8 days correct? Or is it possible? Hey Falls,the GFS has been hinting at something in that timefrime since yesterday's 12Z run. I doubt that anything wintry will come of it for us but I guess only time will tell. Like you, I'm more interested in what happens after that. Maybe, just maybe, we can thread a needle before mid-February gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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