Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi US temps on the chopping block next week as pattern brings winter to US http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/162885514159067136/photo/1 It's A bute Clark. Thought we had an exclusive JB thread.... Just to reiterate from yesterday...Euro ens means have been supporting the colder pattern for more than a few days...but the active Pacific looks to batter it down the western ridge before too long...perhaps more than two days this time at least...second weekend in Feb may be your last chance to enjoy the Carolina ski resorts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Thought we had an exclusive JB thread.... Just to reiterate from yesterday...Euro ens means have been supporting the colder pattern for more than a few days...but the active Pacific looks to batter it down the western ridge before too long...perhaps more than two days this time at least...second weekend in Feb may be your last chance to enjoy the Carolina ski resorts.... Good point. I'm afraid we just have to hope for some perfect timing for Feb into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 So you're saying the first 10 days of February will be okay, but after that it's warmth again. JB says otherwise as he thinks mid February is when the cold and stormy will kick in the most.. At least we know where each of you stand. Thanks for the input. TW Since I am not selling my opinion, I am not going tit-for-tat with you on JB...nice try though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Color me nuts, but that looks like a CAD event with HPS up over Maine? (Not that I believe anything 384 hours out the way this winter has gone) with this years track record, i havent looked at anything past 180 hours, let alone 384. for this winter, at least, i have resigned myself that we probably wont have much to track (at least for a long time). IF we do end up with a chance at winter wx, i am thinking it will be one of those last minute pop up things where we get marginally cold air and then a little moisture to come in from a disturbance or what not. either that or the bowling balls start swinging thru the se again btw, that map would be nice, just bring the blue line s a bit haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You have to think if we can get a ridge that initially looks too far east to help us to retrograde to the west coast as it's strenthening and reaching up toward Alaska that will be our first real shot at a possible Miller A. At the very least this type of a pattern could save winter for the upper midatlantic into new england, but who cares about that, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 At the very least this type of a pattern could save winter for the upper midatlantic into new england, but who cares about that, right? Those jackwagons up there complain if it snows, they complain if it doesn't snow. Here, we just complain if it doesn't snow. I thought the years from 2006-2009 were bad. But this one (so far) has taken the cake. Maybe, just maybe Feb and March will resemble something of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 GFS looks quite cold. one of the coldest looks we've seen all year in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 GFS looks quite cold. one of the coldest looks we've seen all year in the long range. Nice to seem some blocking show up on day 7/8 for a few days. Be great if the Euro would show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Well, Well...GFS has tall ridge north/northeast of Alaska, with northern Greenland blocking into Baffin Bay, cold vortex in SE Canada / New England....brr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hey, um anybody notice the big PNA ridge and the -NAO/Greenland block on the new GFS?? You want to see an example of a decent 500 mb pattern for winter wx in the SE, take a look at the pattern around 252 or so. Really, watch how things evolve from about 200 on. Lots of favorable things happening. Edit: Looks like somebody did notice. ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 DT ain't buying it: *** ALERT *** ALERT ** 12Z friday GFS Model goes BONKERS (again!!!) with extreme cold and some winter storm potential... its NOT to be believed for 1 second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 GFS looks decent, with a couple arctic shots beginning around day 7 and continues till the end of the run. Things continue to trend towards a colder look in February. Let's get the ensembles on board and the Euro then I think we may be cooking. We obviously can't see if it's gonna snow or not but the pattern is looking colder for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Hey, um anybody notice the big PNA ridge and the -NAO/Greenland block on the new GFS?? You want to see an example of a decent 500 mb pattern for winter wx in the SE, take a look at the pattern around 252 or so. Really, watch how things evolve from about 200 on. Lots of favorable things happening. CR - correct me if I am wrong, this is where I really started noticing the blocking get going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It does appear the the blocking is short lived on the GFS but we are talking long range on an operational run. It is a good sign but again we have a ways to go on this yet. I like how things have trended over the last week or so in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 CR - correct me if I am wrong, this is where I really started noticing the blocking get going.... Yeah, I think the -NAO starts to drop and evolve into a favorable location around the 200 hour mark. Don't know if this, if true, will have a lot of staying power, but it would widen our timing window nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 LOL. What a difference a few hours can make! Let's hope this sticks. Wouldn't it be awesome to see a COMEBACK of the EXTREME and close the winter season with a bang? It has happened before and will happen again. Let's hope it is this season! yea close to feb. and march of 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I like the look of the CMC at 180hrs. This might be our first legit threat at something wintery this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I like the look of the CMC at 180hrs. This might be our first legit threat at something wintery this year. well go ahead and post the 180 CMC.............don't tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 well go ahead and post the 180 CMC.............don't tease. Well it's got a nice OV winter storm, maybe TN could get some action. The PNA ridge is there so hopefully after we can get a system to come through, with blocking. The 1040+ high building in is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Notice all the energy dropping down the back side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 12z GFS Ens looks good overall with the western ridging from hr204 through the end of the run....no sign of Greenland blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Notice all the energy dropping down the back side of the trough. Very similar to the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Does anyone else think that the frames after 180 on the CMC could be something big? Look at all the energy dropping down the backside of the huge ridge. If it digs deep enough it could be very good. edit : we are on the same page it appears.... Notice all the energy dropping down the back side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Does anyone else think that the frames after 180 on the CMC could be something big? Look at all the energy dropping down the backside of the huge ridge. If it digs deep enough it could be very good. edit : we are on the same page it appears.... not enough separation imo, but if the models are amplifying the wrong wave it could lead to a totally different and more productive outcome. again, jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 not enough separation imo, but if the models are amplifying the wrong wave it could lead to a totally different and more productive outcome. again, jmo Verbatim, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The thing right now is tht we very solid evidence of at least a decent amplification of the western ridge. The Op models are a lot deeper than the ensembles with the trough, usually I would go with the ensembles but if the Ops keep this trend we may at least get a compromise. Right now the most likely scenario IMO is for a pretty good cold shot like we had in December with snow in the mountains and maybe flurries farther south/east. The Euro coming in now will be helpful- will it stick to its guns or weaken the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The thing right now is tht we very solid evidence of at least a decent amplification of the western ridge. The Op models are a lot deeper than the ensembles with the trough, usually I would go with the ensembles but if the Ops keep this trend we may at least get a compromise. Right now the most likely scenario IMO is for a pretty good cold shot like we had in December with snow in the mountains and maybe flurries farther south/east. The Euro coming in now will be helpful- will it stick to its guns or weaken the trough? A compromise would be nice As for the second part of the bolded....it's not called Dr. No for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I don't understand some on this site.If the models show the SE warm most on here say it 100 % true .Going to be a torch.But if the models show cold and stormy then it like no it will change .i know it been horrible this winter butthis pattern can't go on forever.I'm feeling when it does change it may stay that way for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 A compromise would be nice As for the second part of the bolded....it's not called Dr. No for nothing The highs in the 20's and lows in the teens Goofy is giving me in the lr would be quite refreshing!! And if it degenerated to lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's, it would still refresh me after all this danged heat T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The highs in the 20's and lows in the teens Goofy is giving me in the lr would be quite refreshing!! And if it degenerated to lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's, it would still refresh me after all this danged heat T Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens ? You would think with a high in the 20s lows would be near 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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