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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Folks,

The just released 0Z Goofy ensemble mean does have -3 to -4C anomalies, the coldest anomalies in all of North America, for the SE US for the period 2/7-11. This is matching up pretty well with that Euro weekly run from 10 days ago. Unfortunately, it is a dry, cold period with NW 500 mb flow and the trough centered too far east for precip. of consequence. We need the trough to set up near 90W and deeper and allow for moist WSW 500 mb flow together while at the same time allowing for cold. One doesn't normally see much mositure without WSW or SW 500 mb flow. NW or WNW flow won't normally cut it if you want sig. precip.

Feb. is almost here! Keeping hope alive.

Thanks, Frog Man! Your model infiltration, and recon is much appreciated :) Goofy has liked the time around the 7th for a while now, off and on. It'd be nice to see something verify again, other than heat, rain, or weak cold. The way things usually work, in normal times, is the model will push the system back a bit, or give two, so I figure Valentines Day, will start showing up..... if we are lucky, finally, lol. Tony

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lol

It's over guys. There wasn't a winter this year. We should start making considerations about the severe season, although with the drought, I doubt it'll be interesting.

If the administrators would ever fix this site so my Bloo Q Kazoo avatar works again, we'd get snow but nooo we can't have that now can we? It's a conspiracy by the mid-atlantic forum members just because I didn't donate to their trust fund and got more snow than usual last season.

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Euro taken literally is very cold at 240- snow showers from MS to NW GA. Do not really believe yet, but the idea of some sort of amplification is getting more likely IMO.

Well we will have to see if it holds but for now I have seen enough from both the GFS and Euro finally tonight to post again about something dealing with winter. Looks like the 00z Euro agrees to punch that ridge out west which allows for a nice deepening trough through day 10. This of course allows for the Cold to return to the East. We will have to see if this can hold over the next few days. I have notice signs of this the past few days but did not want to post right away but we will see if it can keep this more than a day. Keep your fingers crossed. Good signs either way if only for tonight..

00z Euro

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Seems to be a general agreement of some sort for a huge blast of colder air to settle in while progressing through the first week of February. Obviously not something that's written in stone but it's nice to see that the models develop the huge west ridge/east trough solution. The question that remains of course is whether or not we keep this going for the next several runs (and it's tough to bet on since this is out beyond a week) but so far it's a nice look. All we need now is a nice storm of some sort to mingle with it.

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Matt's vidblog is up. His take on the western ridging out in the LR.

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

Yeah, I talked about that in the discussion and video this morning. I know we have seen false west coast ridging in the medium range models before during this winter, but this is the first time I remember the Op GFS and Euro being in such good agreement with the idea. The 6z GFS really held serve too. I am not all in with the scenario yet, but I have a little more confidence that this may be real than some other times this winter.

A ridge pops up over the Rockies next week, but then the big (possibly pattern-changing) amplification occurs thereafter as you get closer to 240. Ridging makes it right on up into Alaska.

If that were to occur, that's obviously a big difference than the Alaskan vortex setup we've had for much of the winter.

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Yeah, I talked about that in the discussion and video this morning. I know we have seen false west coast ridging in the medium range models before during this winter, but this is the first time I remember the Op GFS and Euro being in such good agreement with the idea. The 6z GFS really held serve too. I am not all in with the scenario yet, but I have a little more confidence that this may be real than some other times this winter.

A ridge pops up over the Rockies next week, but then the big (possibly pattern-changing) amplification occurs thereafter as you get closer to 240. Ridging makes it right on up into Alaska.

If that were to occur, that's obviously a big difference than the Alaskan vortex setup we've had for much of the winter.

Ya great videos and analysis. Just hope it sticks. Things seem to want to progress in the right direction and with the GFS and Euro on the same page is like wow first time this winter.

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Yeah, I talked about that in the discussion and video this morning. I know we have seen false west coast ridging in the medium range models before during this winter, but this is the first time I remember the Op GFS and Euro being in such good agreement with the idea. The 6z GFS really held serve too. I am not all in with the scenario yet, but I have a little more confidence that this may be real than some other times this winter.

A ridge pops up over the Rockies next week, but then the big (possibly pattern-changing) amplification occurs thereafter as you get closer to 240. Ridging makes it right on up into Alaska.

If that were to occur, that's obviously a big difference than the Alaskan vortex setup we've had for much of the winter.

Just got caught up on the 0Z and 6Z model runs and am actually a bit more optimistic about winter weather somewhere in the southeast in Feb. since for the first time in a while we see agreement in the mid-long range with ridging and amplification. If we could get this to hang for a couple weeks with active stream it could be lots of fun for the snow lovers....me!

Nice blog Matt....again

Id rather watch you talk about winter weather right now than tornadoes!

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Yeah, I talked about that in the discussion and video this morning. I know we have seen false west coast ridging in the medium range models before during this winter, but this is the first time I remember the Op GFS and Euro being in such good agreement with the idea. The 6z GFS really held serve too. I am not all in with the scenario yet, but I have a little more confidence that this may be real than some other times this winter.

A ridge pops up over the Rockies next week, but then the big (possibly pattern-changing) amplification occurs thereafter as you get closer to 240. Ridging makes it right on up into Alaska.

If that were to occur, that's obviously a big difference than the Alaskan vortex setup we've had for much of the winter.

It will have to happen before I beleive it. There has been a lot of crying wolf about the pattern change since December. It would not surprise me, though, if we went from one extreme to the other this winter. Our weather seems to be all about extremes these days. So we'll either go from no winter and no snow at all to a frozen tundra and lots of snow, or it'll still stay warmer than normal and not snow at all. There's no in between anymore.

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Yeah, I talked about that in the discussion and video this morning. I know we have seen false west coast ridging in the medium range models before during this winter, but this is the first time I remember the Op GFS and Euro being in such good agreement with the idea. The 6z GFS really held serve too. I am not all in with the scenario yet, but I have a little more confidence that this may be real than some other times this winter.

A ridge pops up over the Rockies next week, but then the big (possibly pattern-changing) amplification occurs thereafter as you get closer to 240. Ridging makes it right on up into Alaska.

If that were to occur, that's obviously a big difference than the Alaskan vortex setup we've had for much of the winter.

Agree. Nice to see the models develop that ridging and then have some type of deep Southeast anomaly now showing up several runs on the ecmwf. Hopefully it continues. I've studied a lot of patterns of great storms in the past for the Midatlantic and part of the upper south and the op. run fits it day 8 through 10. Location means everything though, too far west and we're warmer /wetter, and too far east would favor the Midatlantic and Northeast. There is a huge potential for an eastern Gulf storm with moisture being thrown into the cold air on that run, with a slow moving storm going up the east coast from Fl. panhandle to the Northeast. We'll see how the 5h pattern evolves, but this is better than where we have been. It also fits the strong flip I've been expecting at some point this winter.

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lol

It's over guys. There wasn't a winter this year. We should start making considerations about the severe season, although with the drought, I doubt it'll be interesting.

What drought are you speaking of ?The ground is so wet now the water just lays and has no where to go.

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Agree. Nice to see the models develop that ridging and then have some type of deep Southeast anomaly now showing up several runs on the ecmwf. Hopefully it continues. I've studied a lot of patterns of great storms in the past for the Midatlantic and part of the upper south and the op. run fits it day 8 through 10. Location means everything though, too far west and we're warmer /wetter, and too far east would favor the Midatlantic and Northeast. There is a huge potential for an eastern Gulf storm with moisture being thrown into the cold air on that run, with a slow moving storm going up the east coast from Fl. panhandle to the Northeast. We'll see how the 5h pattern evolves, but this is better than where we have been. It also fits the strong flip I've been expecting at some point this winter.

Foothills, it's been my feeling that the longer this very anomolous pattern goes on the better our chances are for a significant event late in the season. Sort of along the lines of the thought pattern that Hurricanes occur to balance out the uneveness of global energy in the atmoshpere. Is there any scientific data that would support this? The thinking being that the last few months have been way out of whack with where the pattern "WANTS" to be (more typical pattern) and the longer it waits the more severe the correction.

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Foothills, it's been my feeling that the longer this very anomolous pattern goes on the better our chances are for a significant event late in the season. Sort of along the lines of the thought pattern that Hurricanes occur to balance out the uneveness of global energy in the atmoshpere. Is there any scientific data that would support this? The thinking being that the last few months have been way out of whack with where the pattern "WANTS" to be (more typical pattern) and the longer it waits the more severe the correction.

I always remembered the same growing up. Extremes are balanced by extremes. I remember the winter leading up to the March '93 storm being very mild and uneventful.

TW

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I always remembered the same growing up. Extremes are balanced by extremes. I remember the winter leading up to the March '93 storm being very mild and uneventful.

TW

Yea like most I thought we were going to miss out on snow since there hadn't been any the winter of 1993 in our area.Did that ever change.

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Foothills, it's been my feeling that the longer this very anomolous pattern goes on the better our chances are for a significant event late in the season. Sort of along the lines of the thought pattern that Hurricanes occur to balance out the uneveness of global energy in the atmoshpere. Is there any scientific data that would support this? The thinking being that the last few months have been way out of whack with where the pattern "WANTS" to be (more typical pattern) and the longer it waits the more severe the correction.

I always remembered the same growing up. Extremes are balanced by extremes. I remember the winter leading up to the March '93 storm being very mild and uneventful.

TW

I believe there is truth to this. I am just worried that the way it will be balanced out later down the road will be with a wild spring with severe storms and tornadoes instead of a huge snow.

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Well, it figures we were sunny and the in the mid 60s yesterday and could be talking about a snow storm a week from today.

This is what we in the south refer to as "Winter".

The tug of war between warm and cold is nothing new to southern winters, it's just been a little more weighted to the warm side (and rainy) this year.

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lol

It's over guys. There wasn't a winter this year. We should start making considerations about the severe season, although with the drought, I doubt it'll be interesting.

Dude, you make Eeyore look like the eternal optimist! If you are going to be ridiculously negative, at least post something that makes since. Winter on the calendar is half over. Most of us get normal snowfall with one good storm. Our ground is so saturated right now, you sink an inch or two just standing in you front yard. We have had 2 tornado warnings and 4 severe weather outbreaks in the last 5 weeks. If there was no severe weather this spring (which I seriously doubt) it would already have been an active year. You need to take up a new hobby, like going to hear motivational speakers on the power of positive thinking.

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lol

It's over guys. There wasn't a winter this year. We should start making considerations about the severe season, although with the drought, I doubt it'll be interesting.

Unfortunately your probably right, we have yet to get a good or even a mediocre pattern show up on the models inside of 8 days, it seems the models can never get it closer than 8-10 days out. Until it shows up inside 5 days we should remain skeptical. Although I will admit we are really only 1/2 way through winter. We have about 5 weeks left.

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