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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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The new Euro really digs a strong trough by the end of the period, but right now I do not trust it either since this is a huge sfirt from the previous run. We are in a period of extreme unpredictability right now in the medium range.

What the heck is a sfirt? You met's and your new fangled terminology.

All kidding aside, the Euro didn't look all that bad at 192. Nice positive PNA, baby ridging into the southern tip of Greenland (albeit progressive). Other than no cold air to be found anywhere in N/A, it looked pretty good. haha

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The new Euro really digs a strong trough by the end of the period, but right now I do not trust it either since this is a huge sfirt from the previous run. We are in a period of extreme unpredictability right now in the medium range.

Honestly, I can't remember a time when the models have flip flopped as much as they have in the long range. Anything beyond 5 days is a crap shoot right now. :axe:

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The new Euro really digs a strong trough by the end of the period, but right now I do not trust it either since this is a huge sfirt from the previous run. We are in a period of extreme unpredictability right now in the medium range.

Honestly, I can't remember a time when the models have flip flopped as much as they have in the long range. Anything beyond 5 days is a crap shoot right now. :axe:

HM outlined some rationale for this a few days ago in the AAM/GWO thread on the main page...

Just a word of warning...for all of you who don't remember...last year at this time when the AAM state was changing etc. it lead to a significant model forecast degradation during that period (late Jan-early Feb). I suspect this is likely again, so expect, at the very least, wild shifts in timing in the day 2-5 period.

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The new Euro really digs a strong trough by the end of the period, but right now I do not trust it either since this is a huge sfirt from the previous run. We are in a period of extreme unpredictability right now in the medium range.

Honestly, I can't remember a time when the models have flip flopped as much as they have in the long range. Anything beyond 5 days is a crap shoot right now. :axe:

Unpredictability in systems or large scale features or both? It would seem even with the model mayhem nothing would suggest sustained cold right?

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The euro doesn't look terrible from 192 onward, especially for the upper south. Almost looks like there should be a cut off somewhere.

I see a disturbance coming through with 850s well below freezing... surface would likely still be an issue for tennessee... but at least its something.

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The new Euro really digs a strong trough by the end of the period, but right now I do not trust it either since this is a huge sfirt from the previous run. We are in a period of extreme unpredictability right now in the medium range.

I agree. The long zonal flow in the Pacific is going to keep on making it hard to predict , which is why the models including ensembles are/have been off this Winter sometimes, esp. when they show a cold look. That fast pacific argues against any blocking on our side around Greenland especially. But by the same token this particular stretch looks even more unpredictable, I'd think a strong buckling (high amp flow) should occur sometime in that period "somewhere". Flows don't like to be that zonal that long. So who knows where it happens yet, but it probably would happen. I'd sure take the latest ecmwf run around day 8 through 10, who wouldn't? But its way too far out to hope for. That look is a hall mark for an eastern Gulf of Mexico storm with cold air in place. But its pure fantasy right now.

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I have been out sick for the last couple of days so I have not been paying as close attention but the longer range Euro ens has been pretty consistent with a similar configuration over the last 4-5 days as the operational is now showing. 12z today is not so ideal with the ridge over the rockies and main trough axis out over the atlantic but at least it continues to show something different with a chance for more seasonal patterns.

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I have been out sick for the last couple of days so I have not been paying as close attention but the longer range Euro ens has been pretty consistent with a similar configuration over the last 4-5 days as the operational is now showing. 12z today is not so ideal with the ridge over the rockies and main trough axis out over the atlantic but at least it continues to show something different with a chance for more seasonal patterns.

12z Euro Ens also has the mean ridge axis over the Rockies, but by 240 there is ridging extending through far W Canada up into E AK, with an Aleutian low as well

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I agree. The long zonal flow in the Pacific is going to keep on making it hard to predict , which is why the models including ensembles are/have been off this Winter sometimes, esp. when they show a cold look. That fast pacific argues against any blocking on our side around Greenland especially. But by the same token this particular stretch looks even more unpredictable, I'd think a strong buckling (high amp flow) should occur sometime in that period "somewhere". Flows don't like to be that zonal that long. So who knows where it happens yet, but it probably would happen. I'd sure take the latest ecmwf run around day 8 through 10, who wouldn't? But its way too far out to hope for. That look is a hall mark for an eastern Gulf of Mexico storm with cold air in place. But its pure fantasy right now.

Our best winter storms always begin just like this. :)

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If anyone in NC is a member of an electric co-op and recieve the Carolina Country magazine, check out the February edition. In the " I Remember" section there is a story about a man who grew up in Watauga County and he was telling his story of the 1960 snow there. He said that food drops were made via helicopters and everyone went to Boone just to see the helicopters. He also said that the residents there felt they didn't need any help. I know someone a few months back mentioned the food drops on here. Just thought it was a cool read especially since that particular year has been brought up alot.

yes the 18z is a nod to the 12z ecmwf. I've noticed this a lot this season where the 18z comes in similar to 12z euro but the next run loses it altogether, so we'll see if it holds up. It also repeats the interesting setup a couple days later. The models have been seeing some kind of deepening eastern trough that breaks away from the main flow in Canada around this time for a few days now. We've got a long way to go, but hopefully something to follow.

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post-38-0-59403000-1327620649.gif

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yes the 18z is a nod to the 12z ecmwf. I've noticed this a lot this season where the 18z comes in similar to 12z euro but the next run loses it altogether, so we'll see if it holds up. It also repeats the interesting setup a couple days later. The models have been seeing some kind of deepening eastern trough that breaks away from the main flow in Canada around this time for a few days now. We've got a long way to go, but hopefully something to follow.

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post-38-0-59403000-1327620649.gif

I love that signature look on the weather map! I remember seeing those on a regular basis last year. I personally am not giving up just yet. :)

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I love that signature look on the weather map! I remember seeing those on a regular basis last year. I personally am not giving up just yet. :)

well even though nothing has worked out yet, the odds are still pretty high imo, that it eventually will, "somewhere". There are too many shortwaves and strong amplified periods to ignore and those things have shown no sign of going away. We haven't had one lately, but we're about due for another period of that, and this particular year something tells me that we'll follow this potential straight into April for the Mountains. Hopefully some area can get a big snowstorm before the season ends. I'd be suprised if they don't. But obviously we're not going to have a cold winter (like I forecast, and many others)....still I've seen many years with warm winters have a big last hurrah. Not all of them though. Makes forecasting fun.

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well even though nothing has worked out yet, the odds are still pretty high imo, that it eventually will, "somewhere". There are too many shortwaves and strong amplified periods to ignore and those things have shown no sign of going away. We haven't had one lately, but we're about due for another period of that, and this particular year something tells me that we'll follow this potential straight into April for the Mountains. Hopefully some area can get a big snowstorm before the season ends. I'd be suprised if they don't. But obviously we're not going to have a cold winter (like I forecast, and many others)....still I've seen many years with warm winters have a big last hurrah. Not all of them though. Makes forecasting fun.

I look at it as the region in the SE that scores with that one big system, then I will be just ad happy. As for you and I Robert, we can always make a quick road trip to the NC Mountains! Hmm...something to think about! :)

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well even though nothing has worked out yet, the odds are still pretty high imo, that it eventually will, "somewhere". There are too many shortwaves and strong amplified periods to ignore and those things have shown no sign of going away. We haven't had one lately, but we're about due for another period of that, and this particular year something tells me that we'll follow this potential straight into April for the Mountains. Hopefully some area can get a big snowstorm before the season ends. I'd be suprised if they don't. But obviously we're not going to have a cold winter (like I forecast, and many others)....still I've seen many years with warm winters have a big last hurrah. Not all of them though. Makes forecasting fun.

Are you surprised at the extent of the warmth this winter ? I don't recall anyone forecasting temps 5-10 degrees above normal for 2 months straight. Atlanta was 5+ above normal in Dec and Jan. I'm guessing Feb will be another 5+ above normal ? That might be a first, to have all 3 winter months 5+ above normal.

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Are you surprised at the extent of the warmth this winter ? I don't recall anyone forecasting temps 5-10 degrees above normal for 2 months straight. Atlanta was 5+ above normal in Dec and Jan. I'm guessing Feb will be another 5+ above normal ? That might be a first, to have all 3 winter months 5+ above normal.

I am surprised. But looking at how the super strong +AO laid the foundation esp. around Alaska and the La Nina, now I'm not that surprised. It was hard to crack for sure, but most missed the warmth. The Pacific is playing hardball. That's the nature of forecasting seasons though, win and lose some. It looks like the season will reverse, but I don't really know if it will come in time to bring about Winter Weather....I think it does though. Most winters do have a flip of a pattern in them. When we have cold Winters, they also usually flip, not always, but most of the time. The big question is do we flip in time to make use of cold aloft? If it happens in March, its tough to do in the Southeast and really eastern seaboard. It can happen though,and if ever any Winter was prone to extremes, this is a likely candidate. We'd need major blocking to setup in western or eastern Canada to see that happen though. Otherwise, a one hit wonder is probably the best hope down here. And we can't see big blocks until 2 weeks in advance at best. There's actually still time, but who knows. Things in February usually get much more 'dynamic' than in January. So I still don't see a boring pattern at all.

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yes the 18z is a nod to the 12z ecmwf. I've noticed this a lot this season where the 18z comes in similar to 12z euro but the next run loses it altogether, so we'll see if it holds up. It also repeats the interesting setup a couple days later. The models have been seeing some kind of deepening eastern trough that breaks away from the main flow in Canada around this time for a few days now. We've got a long way to go, but hopefully something to follow.

That trends further west and we might have another severe wx problem...

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12z Euro Ens also has the mean ridge axis over the Rockies, but by 240 there is ridging extending through far W Canada up into E AK, with an Aleutian low as well

It has waffled between a solid +PNA and the not so good Rockies placement the last few days...Like I said...it is not perfect but is definitely a different look. Unfortunately, the latest I have received on the weeklies do not support this pattern continuing. Hopefully, HM is right and the models including the weeklies are in a state of flux right now.

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That's right winter is about to show it's hand. Just be patient.

NAO stays very positive, that's not a good sign. We do pop a good +PNA but I worry it's not enough for more than a strong but transient cold shot. Also the run did not show a flake of snow for the southeast unless you live in the mountains and even then it was <1" We have a long way to go yet.

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Yep, GFS has a tall ridge going up through far western Canada beginning at hr204. We'll have to see if it holds, but there's reasonable agreement on this from GFS/Euro/Canadian Ensembles. 00z GFS is a well placed +PNA ridge. With that look, a storm could come from a wave off of the trough south of the Aleutians undercutting the ridge and moving into CA / west coast, or a wave diving down the east side of the ridge into the TN Valley.

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Folks,

The just released 0Z Goofy ensemble mean does have -3 to -4C anomalies, the coldest anomalies in all of North America, for the SE US for the period 2/7-11. This is matching up pretty well with that Euro weekly run from 10 days ago. Unfortunately, it is a dry, cold period with NW 500 mb flow and the trough centered too far east for precip. of consequence. We need the trough to set up near 90W and deeper and allow for moist WSW 500 mb flow together while at the same time allowing for cold. One doesn't normally see much mositure without WSW or SW 500 mb flow. NW or WNW flow won't normally cut it if you want sig. precip.

Feb. is almost here! Keeping hope alive.

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