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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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It is so funny when I think about last year. It seemed like EVERY DAY we were tracking something. I also remember a couple of huge let downs wIth not receiving wintry weather (things changing the DAY BEFORE). LOL. I guess what I am saying is that there are letdowns either way you slice it. I will say that IF (which I still think we will) we have a winter storm, we will cherish it a lot more.

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The writing was on the wall in December. This winter was going to suck from the very beginning. It's the way our weather is now. It's all or nothing, one extreme or the other. We'd either have a blockbuster winter with one huge snow, or a few really good snows, or nothing at all. The days of one or two nice snows are gone.

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The writing was on the wall in December. This winter was going to suck from the very beginning. It's the way our weather is now. It's all or nothing, one extreme or the other. We'd either have a blockbuster winter with one huge snow, or a few really good snows, or nothing at all. The days of one or two nice snows are gone.

Are you ever positive about anything ?Every time you post it seems your always doom and gloom.Alot can still happen this wintrt.It's still only Jan and from what has been said the models can't be trusted over a week out .Next eeek the models will probably look diferent than now.

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And the money we are saving on heating bills...This year my bills are $150+ cheaper.

Yeah, but most would probably fork over $150 for a good 14 inch snow, lol. My guess is this warmth coming won't verify any better than the last torch that was coming, or the cold that was coming.

I worry that the lack of rain will verify. I hate drought worse than t shirt weather in winter...but it's close :) T

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What the heck is he seeing? There is NOTHING to suggest we will see a pattern change. It's one thing to see signs and predict, quite another to be blindly optimistic.

He didn't actually say these exact words, I did. lol

But he is still forecasting a block and a flip in the pattern for Feb... I guess we'll just have to wait until the end of Feb and then do the grading? But He's not been on his game this winter! But there's a lot of others also that are striking out... When Feb gets here I'm always getting in spring mode anyway no matter how the winter has been....

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Below is a list of winters where we had less than an inch of snow and what happened the following year....this is for the RDU area.... based on past history after a stinker of a winter occurs we usually back it up with another stinker....so this wait until next winter should really be, wait until winter 2014 :axe:

2005 - 0.9

2006 - trace

2007 - 1.7

2008 - 1

1991 - trace

1992 - trace

1997 - 0.4

1998 - 2.4

1999 - trace

1986 - 0.9

1987 - 10.8

1975 - 0.6

1976 - 3

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Well it's $150/month, so it will probably be $500 savings this winter over the previous 2 winters....

Yeah, but most would probably fork over $150 for a good 14 inch snow, lol. My guess is this warmth coming won't verify any better than the last torch that was coming, or the cold that was coming.

I worry that the lack of rain will verify. I hate drought worse than t shirt weather in winter...but it's close :) T

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Well it's $150/month, so it will probably be $500 savings this winter over the previous 2 winters....

Lol, well, for a 5 spot I guess I'd have to see 2 good sleets, and two good snows :)

Who knows..in a few hundred years we might be able to order up backyard weather.....

I split up enough wood to deal with temps below 0 the whole winter, and I've barely made a dent in it, even though I've had some pretty cold nights. It's the days where I'm saving on wood. T

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Lol, well, for a 5 spot I guess I'd have to see 2 good sleets, and two good snows :)

Who knows..in a few hundred years we might be able to order up backyard weather.....

I split up enough wood to deal with temps below 0 the whole winter, and I've barely made a dent in it, even though I've had some pretty cold nights. It's the days where I'm saving on wood. T

LOL, well we will probably spend the $500 savings on water this summer if we head into a drought....

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I couldn't agree more.I'm 50 and I don't ever remmeber seeing anything like this winter.i know i'm preaching to the choir but i can't help but think about how this is llike 1960 winter .From what i've read it didn't get started til mid Feb .I would have loved to have seen that happen .

Yeah I was only 5 years old in 1960 and I do remember big snow when I was around that age. I've been told by those older than myself that we received three snowstorms within a nine day period in March of 1960 here in the Upstate of South Carolina. And I've seen snowstorms here in March since then, and big ones at that, even in late March, although rare, so I tend to not give up hope for snow before the end of March.

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LOL, well we will probably spend the $500 savings on water this summer if we head into a drought....

Man, don't you know it!! I'm way more worried about rain than cold. The pattern will snap.. can't keep winter bottled up for 4 or 5 months....might be a cold March/April or Apr/May, but I've seen drought just go on and on.....

I've had some reprieve since XMas, and I'd hate to back slide. I need to get at least a half inch today, just to keep up :) Tony

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Not much hope from the GFS today. Its trough in the east is sliding more and more east during the 7 to 15 day range as I suspected it would with such a fast flow. In that pattern, the Midatlantic and Northeast could get cold(er). We need a Greenland ridge to help slow down the airmasses from jetting out of the South, until that happens I'll take any big western ridge with a grain of salt, they have all been over developed this season. And even when there has been a good one, the cold air still manages to move out of here quickly. Next week looks really nice and Springlike in the Southeast, atleast from Monday through Wednesday, with strong southwest flow and a couple good sunny days before some more rain.

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I'm still holding out hope but it's just not looking good. Common sense says that at some point we have to turn the corner but common sense has been wrong up until now. Here is to hoping though. I'll continue to follow the models and see what they have to offer.

Jeez, BurgerBrick, toughen up!! YOu have lots more pages on this thread for us to kick you..over, and over, and over, lol.....or...still time to luck up and get a storm and be the hero, lol.

The last few days Goofy has been playing around with the 7th or so, and we'd give you credit for a storm around then...well, I would anyway :) T

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atleast we're not losing sleep on late night euro runs this Winter.

Love the optimism. That must explain why I havent been late for work at all this winter, but I must admit I think Ive been a bigger grouch.

At least our storm is back on the GFS, but of course its way too warm, and itll probably end up getting shifted about 600 miles west before all is said and done.

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Not much hope from the GFS today. Its trough in the east is sliding more and more east during the 7 to 15 day range as I suspected it would with such a fast flow. In that pattern, the Midatlantic and Northeast could get cold(er). We need a Greenland ridge to help slow down the airmasses from jetting out of the South, until that happens I'll take any big western ridge with a grain of salt, they have all been over developed this season. And even when there has been a good one, the cold air still manages to move out of here quickly. Next week looks really nice and Springlike in the Southeast, atleast from Monday through Wednesday, with strong southwest flow and a couple good sunny days before some more rain.

It does seem like cold air production over the entire NH is falling away quite early. I've seen Spring begin in March, but never February. :bag:

Well at least I don't have to worry about missing a snow storm while on a cruise next week!

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Love the optimism. That must explain why I havent been late for work at all this winter, but I must admit I think Ive been a bigger grouch.

At least our storm is back on the GFS, but of course its way too warm, and itll probably end up getting shifted about 600 miles west before all is said and done.

It's a pretty sharp trough so it could be 600 miles east as well. Even if we got something the surface air would be our biggest enemy.

Pattern almost looks like a late March cold period...quick cool downs (frost/freeze) then quick warm ups.

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The new Euro really digs a strong trough by the end of the period, but right now I do not trust it either since this is a huge sfirt from the previous run. We are in a period of extreme unpredictability right now in the medium range.

Has a big/strong high (1040) in the north/central part of the US, trying to nose in over the lakes. Looks nothing like the 0z run.

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