Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV

[burgertime]

Well the 18z was close but no cigar. Sigh.

[BIG FROSTY]

Here's some encouraging words from Don S. today!

I thought my February 2012 outlook (#703) was ugly enough. The 1/25 run of the CFSv2 is even uglier with coast-to-coast warmth in the CONUS and across almost all of Canada. Alaska and adjacent parts of western Canada are cool. For the CONUS, one could almost have redrawn the February 2000 map.

[Cold Rain]

Here's some encouraging words from Don S. today!

I thought my February 2012 outlook (#703) was ugly enough. The 1/25 run of the CFSv2 is even uglier with coast-to-coast warmth in the CONUS and across almost all of Canada. Alaska and adjacent parts of western Canada are cool. For the CONUS, one could almost have redrawn the February 2000 map.

Well that's terrible.

[Tacoma]

But, isn't 1960 the year we had snow on four consecutive Wednesdays in March? If it is, I think I'll take please.

Yes I was eight years old in the third grade and we had the most fun sleding the whole month of march. schools were closed basically the whole month of march but I'll never forget we went to school like about nine saturdays in a row in april and may to make up for feb. and march. I'll never forget that year.

[SN_Lover]

It looks like the GFS ensembles are coming into better agreement for the 10-15 day range. Lets hope for consistency.

[buckeyefan1]

GOA vortex + positive NAO = more of the same

sigh...

Just keep the rain coming, that's all I'm asking for at this point

[BIG FROSTY]

Bastardi's Feb. temps forecast? Bastardi vs Models!!!

[burgertime]

Bastardi's Feb. temps forecast? Bastardi vs Models!!!

I really hope he is right, but so far he is batting like .058 while Don S. is at a Ted Williams like .400

[LithiaWx]

Models vs Bastardi indeed.

[BIG FROSTY]

I really hope he is right, but so far he is batting like .058 while Don S. is at a Ted Williams like .400

I agree, but hopefully Don S. goes in a slump!!!

[Met1985]

Been away today guys and ladies but great great discussion. I have learned a little more today about patterns, blocking, ect. Wow it was like spring today. Much more of this and i will be ready to fire up the grill and get out the lawn chairs!

[packbacker]

I agree, but hopefully Don S. goes in a slump!!!

I think I have seen Don S. wrong before, once.....maybe...

[POWERSTROKE]

I really hope he is right, but so far he is batting like .058 while Don S. is at a Ted Williams like .400

Don't take but one shot to win the game! lol

[Jon]

Models vs Bastardi indeed.

Wow that's ugly. I wish I could unsee that.

[dsaur]

I think some of the features that are frequently talked about, relating to the 500 mb pattern, and whether or not those features are favorable for Winter wx in the SE, could use a bit of discussion and clarification.

Let's take the Western Ridge/PNA, for example. You can't take one frame of a model and see a western ridge and declare a winter wx potential/cold air outbreak for the SE. Location matters. Height/sharpness matters. Progressiveness matters. A short, progressive ridge is a whole different scenario than a tall, favorably located ridge that has some staying power. Short and progressive usually means a cold frontal passage (cold chasing moisture), followed by cooler weather followed by warmer weather. It doesn't allow SW energy to dig far enough to the south to both spin up a storm and provide a favorable track. A tall ridge that's not as progressive is more likely to provide the opportunity for a significant storm. The location of that ridge helps to determine the storm track. A ridge over or east of the Rockies will usually result in a system tracking too far east for most of us, unless the ridge is really tall and sharp. A ridge a bit west of there is better. All of this though, is usually better than a western trough/-PNA.

Another fun and common feature is the 50/50 low. A weak, quickly moving 50/50 low is going to provide less confluence and suppression than a strong, quasi-stationary one. Again, you should consult more than just, say, the 192 hour panel of the Euro to determine this. To obtain a favorably located, quasi-stationary HP to deliver cold air into the region, a stronger, quasi-stationary 50/50 is better. It will provide the necessary confluence with which to lock in HP. If the 50/50 is weak and zipping along at Warp 6, your timing window for winter wx shortens greatly.

And the last item up for bids is everybody's favorite, the -NAO. For all you newbies out there, this feature is more than just a number put out by the CPC or the CDC or the gfs or the Euro or anything else. Again, you have to look at the height fields at higher latitudes in order to evaluate whether or not you have a -NAO that will help you. Higher heights or a block over iceland or out in the Atlantic is not a preferable configuration if you like winter storms in the SE, all else being equal, even though the index number will be negative. Often, that configuration yields a NW flow, leading to cold and dry, while getting pummeled to death by clipper systems. What you'd want to see are higher heights over Greenland, ridging back into Canada. The Greenland block is a stronger, more stable version of this type of -NAO. These two types of -NAO can help to suppress the storm track and lock in colder air. To evaluate this feature, you should look at the 500 mb pattern over several consecutive time periods in order so see how things are evolving.

None of these things are present to any significant degree on any model output I've seen, going out for the next 10 days to 2 weeks. Until that changes, we're not in a winter wx pattern. In order to get a widespread winter storm, we're going to have to rely heavily on perfect timing with very narrow margins for error. But of course, every now and then, all of the jackpot icons line up on the slot machine.

For non-modeleers, I hope this helps with what to be on the lookout for when model-gazing.

Nicely done, CR!! Those danged troughs keep showing up too far east, slide by, and I can barely break into the 20's on any of these runs. Looking more and more like a hard cold March....hopefully T

[WilkesboroDude]

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

242 am EST Thursday Jan 26 2012

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... as of 242 am Thursday... The La Nina driven winter season (or lack of a winter season) continues this period.

A brief chill down is still expected Sunday into Monday. However... it will warm back up quickly by Monday afternoon. This warming trend will bring Spring-like temperatures back to the region Tuesday and beyond. In addition to the returning warmth next week... the pattern appears to be turning toward a drier theme with a building ridge over The Rockies and plains... with all moisture sources for our region to be cut off. This does not Bode well for the drought areas especially in the eastern and southern parts of NC and much of SC.

[FallsLake]

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

242 am EST Thursday Jan 26 2012

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... as of 242 am Thursday... The La Nina driven winter season (or lack of a winter season) continues this period.

A brief chill down is still expected Sunday into Monday. However... it will warm back up quickly by Monday afternoon. This warming trend will bring Spring-like temperatures back to the region Tuesday and beyond. In addition to the returning warmth next week... the pattern appears to be turning toward a drier theme with a building ridge over The Rockies and plains... with all moisture sources for our region to be cut off. This does not Bode well for the drought areas especially in the eastern and southern parts of NC and much of SC.

The 6z GFS does not look that bad with temps in the mid range to early long range. But the last couple of days (14-16) would fit what Don was stating (warmth all across the the US, except Alaska).

[Suncat]

I noticed yesterday that the azaleas in my back yard are putting out new leaves and the flower buds are growing. If the weather continues the way it has, I suspect that the azaleas will begin blooming next month. The daffodils will be fully blooming next week and the crocus will be blooming in another week. I have this uneasy feeling that any winter storm that does materialize will hit at the worst possible time for the spring flowers and for agriculture in central NC (i.e., about the time that the strawberries are blooming and setting fruit). It's tempting to put out new plants now, but I'm going to wait until after April 15 to be on the safe side.

[FoothillsNC]

Euro doesn't look good for any Winter weather, anywhere near the Southeast. Most of the country looks very warm through day 10 (Feb 5). Cold air has dwindled to Siberia, and the northern hemisphere looks warmer than it should overall. It does look to turn drier now with systems not as frequent as they were. With the rapidly increasing sun angle now, this will lead to quickly producing plants. The year without a Winter continues.

[POWERSTROKE]

I noticed yesterday that the azaleas in my back yard are putting out new leaves and the flower buds are growing. If the weather continues the way it has, I suspect that the azaleas will begin blooming next month. The daffodils will be fully blooming next week and the crocus will be blooming in another week. I have this uneasy feeling that any winter storm that does materialize will hit at the worst possible time for the spring flowers and for agriculture in central NC (i.e., about the time that the strawberries are blooming and setting fruit). It's tempting to put out new plants now, but I'm going to wait until after April 15 to be on the safe side.

now is a great time to plant shrubs or trees. As far as your azaleas if winter don't get them I guarantee a frost will in March r April. I am afraid of the same thing

[RevDodd]

I noticed yesterday that the azaleas in my back yard are putting out new leaves and the flower buds are growing. If the weather continues the way it has, I suspect that the azaleas will begin blooming next month. The daffodils will be fully blooming next week and the crocus will be blooming in another week. I have this uneasy feeling that any winter storm that does materialize will hit at the worst possible time for the spring flowers and for agriculture in central NC (i.e., about the time that the strawberries are blooming and setting fruit). It's tempting to put out new plants now, but I'm going to wait until after April 15 to be on the safe side.

Down our way the concern for fruit orchards isn't the early bloom ... it's blooms, period. Between December and January's temps, we're at a deficit for good chilling hours. One good extended cold stretch should tip the scales, but for now, and with another warmup coming next week, there's some concern that the blooms will be erratic.

[burgertime]

Well it's pretty obvious now...I do not bring the mojo. What a disaster this winter has been.

[packbacker]

Well it's pretty obvious now...I do not bring the mojo. What a disaster this winter has been.

Well it was good effort on your part....we still have 5-6 weeks of winter left, I think the first week of March is still a valid time to get a winter storm around here and someone is bound to get a winter storm in Feb in the SE, just have to keep being patient I guess. I am going to put out my pre-emergent this weekend, 1st time I have ever put it out this early, but with the warmth coming the crabgrass is going to start sprouting.

[FoothillsNC]

Well it's pretty obvious now...I do not bring the mojo. What a disaster this winter has been.

We were due this pattern after 2 excellent years. I've never seen a Winter with non-stop warmth in the whole nation like this one so far, and really no end in sight. Even the warmest Winters had an interlude of a week or 2 when the pattern flipped to colder than normal. So far, we've had 2 two-day cold spells which hardly qualifies for a pattern flip. So it looks like Nov, Dec and Jan will all feature well above warmth over most of the US. Only time will tell if the pattern flips atleast a little while..I think it will be may be too late. If it waits until March it probably will be too late, if it occurs in late Feb. there's still a slight chance at someone getting the cold to combine with moisture for snow, but it would have to be a stark pattern change. It's happened though, but its the exception more than the rule. Still think the mountains will end up with more snow in March than they do in Nov, Dec , Jan and Feb combined., as the storm track + cold is concentrated in the Apps then. For us we will see if this is the first snowless year on record , as no flakes at all have been observed here yet. Atleast GA has seen 3 different minor events. I think this might qualify as a top 5 warmest Winters on record for some parts of the South, maybe not NC since we have a lot of damming events and missed some real warmth. Starting this weekend we dry out more and the rains look less frequent for a while, so Spring will be in the air once we get some sunny days going.

[BIG FROSTY]

The block will lock up top, So by mid Feb we will be ready to rock!

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

We were due this pattern after 2 excellent years. I've never seen a Winter with non-stop warmth in the whole nation like this one so far, and really no end in sight. Even the warmest Winters had an interlude of a week or 2 when the pattern flipped to colder than normal. So far, we've had 2 two-day cold spells which hardly qualifies for a pattern flip. So it looks like Nov, Dec and Jan will all feature well above warmth over most of the US. Only time will tell if the pattern flips atleast a little while..I think it will be may be too late. If it waits until March it probably will be too late, if it occurs in late Feb. there's still a slight chance at someone getting the cold to combine with moisture for snow, but it would have to be a stark pattern change. It's happened though, but its the exception more than the rule. Still think the mountains will end up with more snow in March than they do in Nov, Dec , Jan and Feb combined., as the storm track + cold is concentrated in the Apps then. For us we will see if this is the first snowless year on record , as no flakes at all have been observed here yet. Atleast GA has seen 3 different minor events. I think this might qualify as a top 5 warmest Winters on record for some parts of the South, maybe not NC since we have a lot of damming events and missed some real warmth. Starting this weekend we dry out more and the rains look less frequent for a while, so Spring will be in the air once we get some sunny days going.

I couldn't agree more.I'm 50 and I don't ever remmeber seeing anything like this winter.i know i'm preaching to the choir but i can't help but think about how this is llike 1960 winter .From what i've read it didn't get started til mid Feb .I would have loved to have seen that happen .

[FoothillsNC]

I couldn't agree more.I'm 50 and Idon't ever remmeber seeing anything like this winter.i know i'm preaching to the choir but i can't help but think about hoe this is llike 1960 winter .From what i've read it didn't get started til mid Feb .I would have loved to have seen that happen .

I'd like to see that again too, but doubt it happens anytime soon, probably not this Winter. You can't forecast those patterns in advance, and no model has double blocking in just the right spots. The blocking has been in all the wrong spots so far. The only thing that will get me excited on snow chances the rest of this Winter will be to see the models and ensembles develop a strong Greenland/eastern Canada block, and there's nothing remotely similar to that showing up for 2 weeks. A strong PNA+ probably wouldn't cut it for us this year, it alone rarely does anyway, and with this fast flow the chances are even lower. We desperately need a 50/50 low and blocking near southern Greenland to have some hope. Otherwise, a deep cold, well placed cutoff could do it, but its a long shot. That will probably happen in Spring for the mountains though.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

The block will lock up top, So by mid Feb we will be ready to rock!

Just like 1960 mid Feb.

[burgertime]

We were due this pattern after 2 excellent years. I've never seen a Winter with non-stop warmth in the whole nation like this one so far, and really no end in sight. Even the warmest Winters had an interlude of a week or 2 when the pattern flipped to colder than normal. So far, we've had 2 two-day cold spells which hardly qualifies for a pattern flip. So it looks like Nov, Dec and Jan will all feature well above warmth over most of the US. Only time will tell if the pattern flips atleast a little while..I think it will be may be too late. If it waits until March it probably will be too late, if it occurs in late Feb. there's still a slight chance at someone getting the cold to combine with moisture for snow, but it would have to be a stark pattern change. It's happened though, but its the exception more than the rule. Still think the mountains will end up with more snow in March than they do in Nov, Dec , Jan and Feb combined., as the storm track + cold is concentrated in the Apps then. For us we will see if this is the first snowless year on record , as no flakes at all have been observed here yet. Atleast GA has seen 3 different minor events. I think this might qualify as a top 5 warmest Winters on record for some parts of the South, maybe not NC since we have a lot of damming events and missed some real warmth. Starting this weekend we dry out more and the rains look less frequent for a while, so Spring will be in the air once we get some sunny days going.

I'm still holding out hope but it's just not looking good. Common sense says that at some point we have to turn the corner but common sense has been wrong up until now. Here is to hoping though. I'll continue to follow the models and see what they have to offer.

[FoothillsNC]

I'm still holding out hope but it's just not looking good. Common sense says that at some point we have to turn the corner but common sense has been wrong up until now. Here is to hoping though. I'll continue to follow the models and see what they have to offer.

atleast we're not losing sleep on late night euro runs this Winter.