Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV

[tnweathernut]

Well there goes that threat then if LC is talking about it. I don't care for him personally. We had words on DT's facebook page about 3 weeks ago. He was putting down anybody that posted on Americanwx, including the red taggers. At that point I had to bring up the fact that he used to post at eastern and got put in his place from the SE crew. I asked him if he's been studying up on his cad events. He didn't respond to me after that.

Haha, good one.

[burgertime]

Well there goes that threat then if LC is talking about it. I don't care for him personally. We had words on DT's facebook page about 3 weeks ago. He was putting down anybody that posted on Americanwx, including the red taggers. At that point I had to bring up the fact that he used to post at eastern and got put in his place from the SE crew. I asked him if he's been studying up on his cad events. He didn't respond to me after that.

He was pretty good last winter. Everyone shows their ass sometime and he showed his pretty bad on Eastern (wish I could have witnessed it first hand). I hold him a little above JB and DT since he most of the time is good about leaving the door open either way...but that CAD thing, how could he ever live that down. Talking trash on AmericanWx...well we've got Wes, Robert, Don S. (who NWS Philly used in a AFD for God's sake), Phil, Bob and a ton of others who are constantly on point. All he needs to do is read that Medium Range outlook on the main weather side.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I know it's more "wishful thinking" than anything, but if the Euro doesn't leave behind the energy in the southwest (it is a known bias) and the ridge axis is just a little bit further west, there could be a significant storm around the 10th for someone in the south/midsouth/southeast........

Wouldn't the fact that ground temps are very warm and above normal for this time of year impact snowfall accumulations if there were to be a snowstorm ?

[burgertime]

Wouldn't the fact that ground temps are very warm and above normal for this time of year impact snowfall accumulations if there were to be a snowstorm ?

This is a question that comes up every single year. It only effects you if temps are marginal and you're not getting a good snow fall. However if we received heavy rates it can quickly overcome the warm ground. I believe March 2009 is a perfect example of that. We had heavy rates and the warm ground didn't matter at all.

[rduwx]

He was pretty good last winter. Everyone shows their ass sometime and he showed his pretty bad on Eastern (which I could have witnessed it first hand). I hold him a little above JB and DT since he most of the time is good about leaving the door open either way...but that CAD thing, how could he ever live that down. Talking trash on AmericanWx...well we've got Wes, Robert, Don S. (who NWS Philly used in a AFD for God's sake), Phil, Bob and a ton of others who are constantly on point. All he needs to do is read that Medium Range outlook on the main weather side.

I responded to this in the banner thread so I don't get this thread off track.

[jburns]

Everyone shows their ass sometime and he showed his pretty bad on Eastern (which I could have witnessed it first hand).

Ah, the infamous 1" of ice incident. I remember it well.

[Bevo]

This is a question that comes up every single year. It only effects you if temps are marginal and you're not getting a good snow fall. However if we received heavy rates it can quickly overcome the warm ground. I believe March 2009 is a perfect example of that. We had heavy rates and the warm ground didn't matter at all.

Yep Yep - March '09 is the best recent example.

March '10 could have been a sequel had it occurred at night (or at least late evening)...blasted sun angle...

[jmundie]

This is a question that comes up every single year. It only effects you if temps are marginal and you're not getting a good snow fall. However if we received heavy rates it can quickly overcome the warm ground. I believe March 2009 is a perfect example of that. We had heavy rates and the warm ground didn't matter at all.

It will affect it, because, for a time, it will melt from the bottom up. The rates will overcome the melting, which allows snow to accumulate on snow, and if temps fall into the mid 20s or lower, it will eventually freez at least the top layer of the ground.

But if you're in the low thirties, even with heavy rates, as soon as it stops snowing, it will melt away quickly.

[jmundie]

Yeah - if Cosgrove is calling for something, I usually bet on the opposite. That guy....

Not only is he abysmal at long range forecasting (and sure, he did well last year, nearly every storm system produced accumulating snow) but he's kinda creepy. I've had one or two comment interactions with him, but friended him mainly to see his forecast thoughts. I posted a pic of my then 6 month old daughter on facebook and he "liked" it.

If it happens again, I'm unfriending him. I'm sure its entirely harmless, but that's just poor social skills. If you don't know me, you shouldn't be liking pics of my daughter.

[burgertime]

It will affect it, because, for a time, it will melt from the bottom up. The rates will overcome the melting, which allows snow to accumulate on snow, and if temps fall into the mid 20s or lower, it will eventually freez at least the top layer of the ground.

But if you're in the low thirties, even with heavy rates, as soon as it stops snowing, it will melt away quickly.

Well that's why I said if temps are marginal. An example of that is I believe Jan of 2010. IT snowed on and off all day with marginal temps and warm soil with zero accumulation.

[jburns]

Yep Yep - March '09 is the best recent example.

March '10 could have been a sequel had it occurred at night (or at least late evening)...blasted sun angle...

Snowfall rate trumps everything else. The heaviest snow I was ever in occurred April 27 or 28 in Floyd County Va. in the late 70s. Long time ago and not exactly sure of the date. It had rained heavily over night and was still raining. We had just arrived at the HS school where I was teaching and was surprised to notice cars from the western end of the county with several inches of snow on them coming into the parking lot. As school started the change over occurred and it began to snow heavily. Even though the ground was wet and warm it covered completely in a few minutes. Puddles first turned to slush and then covered. The principal called NWS in Roanoke because the forecast was heavy rain but he was getting worried about bus travel. The met told him it could not be snowing because it was to warm. I won't repeat what he told the met. The met then said there must be a small pocket of cold air aloft and it would quickly change back to rain. An hour later we were dismissing school with 4 inches on the ground and snow pouring down. After the buses struggled out of the parking lot a Va HP car came into the lot to tell us not to dismiss because there was already 14" of snow in the western part of the county.

The snow continued until just after noon and had deposited about a foot when it let up and the sun popped out. You could hear the water rushing down the gutters in the street. After 30 minutes it got very dark like just before a summer thunderstorm and then all hell broke loose. It poured snow with thunder and lightning every few minutes for several hours. I grew up in NW NJ and have never seen it snow like that. By 8pm we had over 30" in town even though it was still melting from the bottom. Reports of more in the higher western end of the county. Trees were leafed out and falling all over as the snow was extremely wet and sticky. Transformers flashing green as one after another they shorted out. I periodically went outside with a sedge hammer and whacked the trunks of my trees to relieve some of the weight from the banches. In those days the clocks weren't changed to DST until April so it seemed surreal to see it snowing on full leafed trees in daylight at 8pm.

So that snow fought very wet warm ground, extremely high sun angle and marginal temps and still put down the heaviest accumulation in the shortest time I have ever seen. Little to no notice was taken of this event outside the county. Floyd is very rural and even today, 30+ years later, there is only one stop light in the entire county. Temps approached 80 the next two days and the snow disappeared almost as fast as it had fallen. We did miss two more days of school for mud. Lots of dirt roads were bus routes.

[dsaur]

Euro doesn't look too bad in the LR. Colder air in Canada looks to be sagging south. Borderline in NC. Out to 192 now.

Well, Goofy, bless it's heart, has been pretty consistantly right about rain, for me, at any rate. I've had rain for a couple of hours now...pretty much on time, and light, as suggested.

Both the GFS and the Euro have been in some agreement as to the advent of cold air around mid month...shifting, shifting, certainly, but without access to the full Doc. I can only go by what I read. Still, something that could be called agreement. Timing, intensity, and cause seeming to be still in debate, but it is something...isn't it? Something we could believe in were it under a week out? Well, next Sunday, we should be looking at possibilities, or the cliff....pretty cut and dried, finally. Fulfillment...... or the old stick and carrot trick exposed, as we find ourselves bunched up, bellys to butts, at the edge of El Capitan T

[burgertime]

Yeah - if Cosgrove is calling for something, I usually bet on the opposite. That guy....

Not only is he abysmal at long range forecasting (and sure, he did well last year, nearly every storm system produced accumulating snow) but he's kinda creepy. I've had one or two comment interactions with him, but friended him mainly to see his forecast thoughts. I posted a pic of my then 6 month old daughter on facebook and he "liked" it.

If it happens again, I'm unfriending him. I'm sure its entirely harmless, but that's just poor social skills. If you don't know me, you shouldn't be liking pics of my daughter.

I responded to this in the banter thread.

[dsaur]

Snowfall rate trumps everything else. The heaviest snow I was ever in occurred April 27 or 28 in Floyd County Va. in the late 70s. Long time ago and not exactly sure of the date. It had rained heavily over night and was still raining. We had just arrived at the HS school where I was teaching and was surprised to notice cars from the western end of the county with several inches of snow on them coming into the parking lot. As school started the change over occurred and it began to snow heavily. Even though the ground was wet and warm it covered completely in a few minutes. Puddles first turned to slush and then covered. The principal called NWS in Roanoke because the forecast was heavy rain but he was getting worried about bus travel. The met told him it could not be snowing because it was to warm. I won't repeat what he told the met. The met then said there must be a small pocket of cold air aloft and it would quickly change back to rain. An hour later we were dismissing school with 4 inches on the ground and snow pouring down. After the buses struggled out of the parking lot a Va HP car came into the lot to tell us not to dismiss because there was already 14" of snow in the western part of the county.

The snow continued until just after noon and had deposited about a foot when it let up and the sun popped out. You could hear the water rushing down the gutters in the street. After 30 minutes it got very dark like just before a summer thunderstorm and then all hell broke loose. It poured snow with thunder and lightning every few minutes for several hours. I grew up in NW NJ and have never seen it snow like that. By 8pm we had over 30" in town even though it was still melting from the bottom. Reports of more in the higher western end of the county. Trees were leafed out and falling all over as the snow was extremely wet and sticky. Transformers flashing green as one after another they shorted out. I periodically went outside with a sedge hammer and whacked the trunks of my trees to relieve some of the weight from the banches. In those days the clocks weren't changed to DST until April so it seemed surreal to see it snowing on full leafed trees in daylight at 8pm.

So that snow fought very wet warm ground, extremely high sun angle and marginal temps and still put down the heaviest accumulation in the shortest time I have ever seen. Little to no notice was taken of this event outside the county. Floyd is very rural and even today, 30+ years later, there is only one stop light in the entire county. Temps approached 80 the next two days and the snow disappeared almost as fast as it had fallen. We did miss two more days of school for mud. Lots of dirt roads were bus routes.

Very, very cool story!! Wish I'd been there to see it. T

[Bevo]

Snowfall rate trumps everything else. The heaviest snow I was ever in occurred April 27 or 28 in Floyd County Va. in the late 70s....

Awesome story - would love to see that happen (preferably in February when leaves are typically still absent).

March '10 had fairly heavy rates off and on (in the GSP FA anyway) - but maybe not consistently enough. However, we were given the "Sun Angle" explanation.

[jburns]

Awesome story - would love to see that happen (preferably in February when leaves are typically still absent).

March '10 had fairly heavy rates off and on (in the GSP FA anyway) - but maybe not consistently enough. However, we were given the "Sun Angle" explanation.

Bingo. Consistency has to be there because it is melting from the bottom and bare ground will reappear every time the snow rate falls off. When the storm I was in ended the bottom 2 or three inches were sloppy wet slush.

[DaculaWeather]

Robert has a new post: http://www.wxsouth.com

[burgertime]

Snowfall rate trumps everything else. The heaviest snow I was ever in occurred April 27 or 28 in Floyd County Va. in the late 70s.

Wow that's a once in a lifetime! Great story.

[GaWx]

Folks,

I just did an analysis of MJO phases 8, 1 and 2 and the associated temp.'s/wintry precip. at KATL:

1. I counted 17 episodes during Jan-early March since 1975. Six of the 17 were cold, eight of the 17 were near normal, and three were warm. So, whereas there would seem to be a slight cold tendency, the 17 averaged only slightly below normal average.

2. a) For the six cold periods, there was at least a trace of S/IP in every case and there was measurable S/IP during four out of the six including one major (3.6" on 2/12/2010).

3. For the eight near normal periods, either three or four had S/IP and two of the eight had measurable S/IP including one major (5.0" in 1/18/1992).

c) For the three warm periods, two had no S/IP and the other had only a trace. So, none had measurable S/IP.

d) For the 17 as a whole, which add to 241 days, there was 11.6" of S/IP. Since the main S/IP season for KATL is ~120 days long, this amounts to ~two snow seasons worth of days or ~6"/season. Being that the longterm avg. S/IP for KATL is only ~2"/winter, that is a rather impressive amount and may mean at least a slightly higher than normal chance toward above average S/IP for each respective period. However, with S/IP being so unpredictable, this is really a pretty small sample size to allow for much of any conclusion. About the only conclusion to make is that when phases 8, 1 and 2 are cold at KATL, there likely is a much higher than normal chance of above avg. S/IP. However, that may be mainly due to it being cold rather than the phases being 8, 1, or 2.

By the way, most winters at KATL have below average S/IP with the relatively few with lots of S/IP allowing for it to average ~2"/winter. So, not surprisingly, 11 of these 17 periods still had below average snow (from zero S/IP up to a trace). Four were above avg. with three way above avg. thus skewing the avg. of the 17 to about three times the avg. S/IP for each period.

[packbacker]

Robert has a new post: http://www.wxsouth.com

Great, so when blocking occurs, we might be in business, considering we haven't had it all winter, I fail to see how it all of a sudden develops.

[POWERSTROKE]

Well that's why I said if temps are marginal. An example of that is I believe Jan of 2010. IT snowed on and off all day with marginal temps and warm soil with zero accumulation.

March 09 and Feb 04 both were warm. The rate it falls is the key however the ground temperature will win out unless cold air stays around. On those to dates it was melting fast up under the snow as we plowed it. Water was being plowed a long with the snow. Generally if e get anything this time of year it usually is significant. Flakes are big and it is a wet heavy snow.

[okie333]

Yeah - if Cosgrove is calling for something, I usually bet on the opposite. That guy....

Not only is he abysmal at long range forecasting (and sure, he did well last year, nearly every storm system produced accumulating snow) but he's kinda creepy. I've had one or two comment interactions with him, but friended him mainly to see his forecast thoughts. I posted a pic of my then 6 month old daughter on facebook and he "liked" it.

If it happens again, I'm unfriending him. I'm sure its entirely harmless, but that's just poor social skills. If you don't know me, you shouldn't be liking pics of my daughter.

I liked a picture of an acquaintance's (someone I've never met, but is in a group I am part of) 3 little sisters, all preschool-age... I think you're over-analyzing things.

[GaWx]

For those interested, here are the 17 MJO phases 8, 1, and 2 analyzed for KATL with temp.'s and S/IP (above avg. S/IP for each period bolded)(there was no sig. ZR)

-1/19-2/8/75: warm, T

-1/27-2/3/76*: norm, T

-2/7-28/78*: cold, 0.3"

-(1/20-30/83): cold, 1.9"

-1/12-2/3/85: cold, 0.4"

-2/21-3/16/88*: norm, 0.0"

-(2/7-23/90): warm, 0.0"

-1/13-2/2/92: norm, 5.0"

-1/3-15/93*: warm, 0.0"

-1/2-14/97: norm, T

-(1/6-12/98): norm, 0.0"

-2/16-24/99: norm, 0.4"

-1/10-27/04*: norm, T or 0.0"

-2/3-12/06: cold, T

-1/16-24/09: cold, T

-2/7-15/10: cold, 3.6"

-1/24-28/11: norm, 0.0"

* = strong MJO

() = rather weak MJO but still outside circle

If anyone else has enough interest and time to do this for his/her city, I'd love to see it posted.

[Marion_NC_WX]

18z GFS has a fantasy snow for Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Hatteras on the 12th...

[dsaur]

Folks,

I just did an analysis of MJO phases 8, 1 and 2 and the associated temp.'s/wintry precip. at KATL:

1. I counted 17 episodes during Jan-early March since 1975. Six of the 17 were cold, eight of the 17 were near normal, and three were warm. So, whereas there would seem to be a slight cold tendency, the 17 averaged only slightly below normal average.

2. a) For the six cold periods, there was at least a trace of S/IP in every case and there was measurable S/IP during four out of the six including one major (3.6" on 2/12/2010).

3. For the eight near normal periods, either three or four had S/IP and two of the eight had measurable S/IP including one major (5.0" in 1/18/1992).

c) For the three warm periods, two had no S/IP and the other had only a trace. So, none had measurable S/IP.

d) For the 17 as a whole, which add to 241 days, there was 11.6" of S/IP. Since the main S/IP season for KATL is ~120 days long, this amounts to ~two snow seasons worth of days or ~6"/season. Being that the longterm avg. S/IP for KATL is only ~2"/winter, that is a rather impressive amount and may mean at least a slightly higher than normal chance toward above average S/IP for each respective period. However, with S/IP being so unpredictable, this is really a pretty small sample size to allow for much of any conclusion. About the only conclusion to make is that when phases 8, 1 and 2 are cold at KATL, there likely is a much higher than normal chance of above avg. S/IP. However, that may be mainly due to it being cold rather than the phases being 8, 1, or 2.

By the way, most winters at KATL have below average S/IP with the relatively few with lots of S/IP allowing for it to average ~2"/winter. So, not surprisingly, 11 of these 17 periods still had below average snow (from zero S/IP up to a trace). Four were above avg. with three way above avg. thus skewing the avg. of the 17 to about three times the avg. S/IP for each period.

Looks to bolster your conclusion that the phase doesn't mean so much in Atl. since it appears, on this sample anyway, that the amount of cold isn't necessarily a factor of the phase, so much as the instance of ip/sn is a probable factor of the cold.

My hopes for Feb. are coming down to climo, as I recall from your posts, we are beginning to enter the several sweet spots, and the long lingering fantasy gulf storm is a big possible just waiting to be an influence, and after the 20th another shot if we can find some cold.

I sure love me some supressed gulf low though, if we could just get some cold air to jump it. It just doesn't reason out that it is down there because of warm air.... something cold must be pushing it down there. They just never seem to wander by down there just for fun, lol, split flow, or no. All the players can't be on the stage just yet, can they? They always want to come up here unless something strong is pushing from the north. T

[Marion_NC_WX]

Big time blocking in the Atlantic on the GFS Long Range...

[Gastonwxman]

18z is a nice look if you're looking for colder conditions and fantasy storms in the long range.

[msuwx]

Awesome story - would love to see that happen (preferably in February when leaves are typically still absent).

March '10 had fairly heavy rates off and on (in the GSP FA anyway) - but maybe not consistently enough. However, we were given the "Sun Angle" explanation.

March '10. Snowed for 13 hours straight at my place only to accumulate to a dusting.....and that was when it was really coming down. I knew we were in trouble with that one when I talked to my buddies in GSP....had been snowing heavily there for a while. Was anxiously awaiting the word of how much they had so far only to hear 'a little but on the roofs....nothing but wet ground.' Knew we were sunk at that point.

[Southern Track]

March '10. Snowed for 13 hours straight at my place only to accumulate to a dusting.....and that was when it was really coming down. I knew we were in trouble with that one when I talked to my buddies in GSP....had been snowing heavily there for a while. Was anxiously awaiting the word of how much they had so far only to hear 'a little but on the roofs....nothing but wet ground.' Knew we were sunk at that point.

Yeah I was in GSP watching it snow and not accumulating. I guess being that it was in the middle of the day and marginal temps.

[AcworthWx]

For those interested, here are the 17 MJO phases 8, 1, and 2 analyzed for KATL with temp.'s and S/IP (above avg. S/IP for each period bolded)(there was no sig. ZR)

-1/19-2/8/75: warm, T

-1/27-2/3/76*: norm, T

-2/7-28/78*: cold, 0.3"

-(1/20-30/83): cold, 1.9"

-1/12-2/3/85: cold, 0.4"

-2/21-3/16/88*: norm, 0.0"

-(2/7-23/90): warm, 0.0"

-1/13-2/2/92: norm, 5.0"

-1/3-15/93*: warm, 0.0"

-1/2-14/97: norm, T

-(1/6-12/98): norm, 0.0"

-2/16-24/99: norm, 0.4"

-1/10-27/04*: norm, T or 0.0"

-2/3-12/06: cold, T

-1/16-24/09: cold, T

-2/7-15/10: cold, 3.6"

-1/24-28/11: norm, 0.0"

* = strong MJO

() = rather weak MJO but still outside circle

If anyone else has enough interest and time to do this for his/her city, I'd love to see it posted.

Thanks for the stats, Larry! I would love to see what they are for KCLT, and maybe if I had some actual free time to put towards a project like this I would, but maybe Burger would be interested in something like this.