dsaur Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow, I am really proud of the group- the 12Z GFS has a snow event of pretty good magnitude at fantasy range and nary a peep! BTW, the ensembles look nothing like the Op run, no surprise.... That's my secondary Valentines storm....it's been expected, lol! And poor Burger is all in on the one that drags down the cold for mine...ha, ha....ha, ha...all in...ha, ha... I tried to warn him, I did, it's all on record....save some chips, Burgerman, I said, ) Oh, well, all absurd fantasy gloating aside...if looks like we get some more rain, you and I. I had a nice Jan., as did you, and would hope to continue into a nice wet Feb. If cold ever finds us we might get something frozen, but at least let's keep the rains rolling in and dent this danged drought. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow, I am really proud of the group- the 12Z GFS has a snow event of pretty good magnitude at fantasy range and nary a peep! BTW, the ensembles look nothing like the Op run, no surprise.... Sorry had some meetings with the boss then did a lunch...or I would have def. mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 That's my secondary Valentines storm....it's been expected, lol! And poor Burger is all in on the one that drags down the cold for mine...ha, ha....ha, ha...all in...ha, ha... I tried to warn him, I did, it's all on record....save some chips, Burgerman, I said, ) Oh, well, all absurd fantasy gloating aside...if looks like we get some more rain, you and I. I had a nice Jan., as did you, and would hope to continue into a nice wet Feb. If cold ever finds us we might get something frozen, but at least let's keep the rains rolling in and dent this danged drought. Tony Who says I can't buy more chips or invest in you as a side bet! ....Seriously though it's pretty incredible how every OP run of the GFS now keeps our miller A in some form or another. The bad is that we are in a broken record now with the cold. It keeps pushing back and back and weaker and weaker with the onset initially which doesn't look too great to me. Euro is running so we'll see if it picks up the Miller A to atleast pull the cold down like you've been saying T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Oh, well, all absurd fantasy gloating aside...if looks like we get some more rain, you and I. I had a nice Jan., as did you, and would hope to continue into a nice wet Feb. If cold ever finds us we might get something frozen, but at least let's keep the rains rolling in and dent this danged drought. Tony Therein lies the second issue I have with the whole "La Nina" dominant classification. For something to have a primary calling card of *dry*...well, I can't remember getting this much rain, even during a moderate Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Sorry had some meetings with the boss then did a lunch...or I would have def. mentioned it. tell your boss we are trying get this winter to wake up and you don't have time for meetings between 11-2........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Sorry had some meetings with the boss then did a lunch...or I would have def. mentioned it. Lol same. I had class otherwise I would of sounded the fantasy alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Looks like the Euro is more stout with the CAD with this weekends system..... edit: nevermind.... @96 looked ok then @120 not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Talking about the GFS Miller A around 228 hour or so, the model is literally showing no precip and temps that are too warm for most. But if you can avoid being too specific at 9-10 days out, you'll see a high that's moving into a very good general position and a low that's taking a generally very good track. If those players are still on the field as we move inside of 3-5 days, I'll guarantee you a substantial threat will exist, and likely, someone in the SE would get some snow....if not many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Talking about the GFS Miller A around 228 hour or so, the model is literally showing no precip and temps that are too warm for most. But if you can avoid being too specific at 9-10 days out, you'll see a high that's moving into a very good general position and a low that's taking a generally very good track. If those players are still on the field as we move inside of 3-5 days, I'll guarantee you a substantial threat will exist, and likely, someone in the SE would get some snow....if not many locations. Yeah, the players have been strutting about on the stage for a while. It's just getting them to ACT...and inside 7 days. Still, my goal is mid month, and if not then, well, late month... or, then next month, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro doesn't look too bad in the LR. Colder air in Canada looks to be sagging south. Borderline in NC. Out to 192 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Euro doesn't look too bad in the LR. Colder air in Canada looks to be sagging south. Borderline in NC. Out to 192 now. Do you have pay access burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 That is the great thing about predictions, sooner or later there is an answer as to who was right According to you, I can already bet my mortgage payment on it... My take.... Weakening second year La Nina going to weak El Nino or neutral based on the latest modelling...add to that what looks to be a fairly wet pattern...while it would seem a little extreme to guess a 2009 redux, it is not difficult to imagine a front loaded summer with only minor positive anomalies in June then normal or below in July and August...that of course is subject to change based on rainfall patterns later this spring. as for your analogs...89 was a moderate La Nina, 90 was neutral to ntl +, 91 is neutral + and 92 is a full blown El Nino which yielded fairly wet and slightly below normal conditions in those two summers...( as much attributable to Pinatubo as anything but nevertheless mischaracterized). We will never know what 92 "might" have done. By comparison over the last three winters we have El Nino, La Nina, La Nina...not seeing the correlation??? So you might want to check your facts before you make bets on them. Finally, the pattern this winter seemed fairly obvious by the beginning of December ( you can check on in many threads on this board) which you claim as the time you posted your forecast so if you are comparing yourself to most who published in mid October then there is not as much virtue there as you regard for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Do you have pay access burger? Yea, that being said for our neck of the woods it's not as cold as the 00z run. At 204 looks like an ULL coming down hitting the mid section of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well this is interesting @210 an ULL is hitting TN and pulling down some cold temps with it. Looks like on this run TN gets some descent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yeah, the players have been strutting about on the stage for a while. It's just getting them to ACT...and inside 7 days. Still, my goal is mid month, and if not then, well, late month... or, then next month, lol. T You have captured the entire theme of this Winter in one sentence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 @216 verbatim light snow across WNC including GSO and CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So no miller A on the euro. Do these runs have the recon data in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 According to you, I can already bet my mortgage payment on it... My take.... Weakening second year La Nina going to weak El Nino or neutral based on the latest modelling...add to that what looks to be a fairly wet pattern...while it would seem a little extreme to guess a 2009 redux, it is not difficult to imagine a front loaded summer with only minor positive anomalies in June then normal or below in July and August...that of course is subject to change based on rainfall patterns later this spring. as for your analogs...89 was a moderate La Nina, 90 was neutral to ntl +, 91 is neutral + and 92 is a full blown El Nino which yielded fairly wet and slightly below normal conditions in those two summers...( as much attributable to Pinatubo as anything but nevertheless mischaracterized). We will never know what 92 "might" have done. By comparison over the last three winters we have El Nino, La Nina, La Nina...not seeing the correlation??? So you might want to check your facts before you make bets on them. Finally, the pattern this winter seemed fairly obvious by the beginning of December ( you can check on in many threads on this board) which you claim as the time you posted your forecast so if you are comparing yourself to most who published in mid October then there is not as much virtue there as you regard for yourself. Damn! Good job Bob. I must say since the beginning of winter you've kept a cool head and been very consistent. Kudos as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 From Larry Cosgrove: Severe weather and heavy rainfall threat for the south central U.S. continues from Thursday night into Saturday. Track of surface low is important here; warm sector should stay just below KS/OK border and Interstate 44. Heavy wet snow NE, IA, NW IL. The "bowling ball" shape of the cold upper low riding into the lower Great Plains and parts of the Mid-South strongly supports a tornado and hail threat. Also keep a close eye on the February 11 - 15 period. I am getting a very bad vibe about energy digging into mexico linking or phasing with a shortwave in the Midwest to produce a huge winter-type storm from the Gulf of Mexico and just off of the Atlantic Coast. Follow GFS ensembles on this prospect for now as operational scheme breaks down +PNA ridge complex too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yea, that being said for our neck of the woods it's not as cold as the 00z run. At 204 looks like an ULL coming down hitting the mid section of TN. That's what the trajectory looked like based on the 168 frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 @216 verbatim light snow across WNC including GSO and CLT. Thus we are reducued to this....sigh...Hehe....some fantasy storm, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 So no miller A on the euro. Do these runs have the recon data in them. Nope but at this point I'm willing to take anything the Euro will give. At 216 it kind of looks like a clipper on steroids...and we all know how those work out. Wish it would have kept it's ULL look but alas I'm sure the mountains would break that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Thus we are reducued to this....sigh...Hehe....some fantasy storm, eh? I feel like this looking at the Euro and GFS this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 According to you, I can already bet my mortgage payment on it... My take.... Weakening second year La Nina going to weak El Nino or neutral based on the latest modelling...add to that what looks to be a fairly wet pattern...while it would seem a little extreme to guess a 2009 redux, it is not difficult to imagine a front loaded summer with only minor positive anomalies in June then normal or below in July and August...that of course is subject to change based on rainfall patterns later this spring. as for your analogs...89 was a moderate La Nina, 90 was neutral to ntl +, 91 is neutral + and 92 is a full blown El Nino which yielded fairly wet and slightly below normal conditions in those two summers...( as much attributable to Pinatubo as anything but nevertheless mischaracterized). We will never know what 92 "might" have done. By comparison over the last three winters we have El Nino, La Nina, La Nina...not seeing the correlation??? So you might want to check your facts before you make bets on them. Finally, the pattern this winter seemed fairly obvious by the beginning of December ( you can check on in many threads on this board) which you claim as the time you posted your forecast so if you are comparing yourself to most who published in mid October then there is not as much virtue there as you regard for yourself. Keep in mind, Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, and that had an verifiably observed effect on global temperature in '91 and '92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Keep in mind, Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, and that had an verifiably observed effect on global temperature in '91 and '92. Noted in my post...Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Noted in my post...Thanks. Ooops, did not see that part. I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Ooops, did not see that part. I apologize. No worries...it is a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Let's do a deal on the ATL summer CDD strip (contract). I sell; you buy. It will NOT be a normal or below Summer, you can bet on that Thanks for playing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 From Larry Cosgrove: Severe weather and heavy rainfall threat for the south central U.S. continues from Thursday night into Saturday. Track of surface low is important here; warm sector should stay just below KS/OK border and Interstate 44. Heavy wet snow NE, IA, NW IL. The "bowling ball" shape of the cold upper low riding into the lower Great Plains and parts of the Mid-South strongly supports a tornado and hail threat. Also keep a close eye on the February 11 - 15 period. I am getting a very bad vibe about energy digging into mexico linking or phasing with a shortwave in the Midwest to produce a huge winter-type storm from the Gulf of Mexico and just off of the Atlantic Coast. Follow GFS ensembles on this prospect for now as operational scheme breaks down +PNA ridge complex too quickly. Well there goes that threat then if LC is talking about it. I don't care for him personally. We had words on DT's facebook page about 3 weeks ago. He was putting down anybody that posted on Americanwx, including the red taggers. At that point I had to bring up the fact that he used to post at eastern and got put in his place from the SE crew. I asked him if he's been studying up on his cad events. He didn't respond to me after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I know it's more "wishful thinking" than anything, but if the Euro doesn't leave behind the energy in the southwest (it is a known bias) and the ridge axis is just a little bit further west, there could be a significant storm around the 10th for someone in the south/midsouth/southeast........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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