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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Surprised no one mentioned 192 on the Euro. Has some flurries for CAE to just past CLT...granted it's just one frame...but it's something. Could be a start.

I have taken note of my fantasy flizzard as these have been hard to come by :lol:

:unsure: Sheesh....Summer has a good chance to be on the normal to below normal side at least....

This is what I hope for especially after these past two brutal never ending summers :hug:

It will NOT be a normal or below Summer, you can bet on that

Any reasoning behind this?

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Cold invades Europe, then our turn

After many weeks of non-winter with dominant Atlantic maritime air in a positive AO and NAO mode, Europe is seeing winter arrive late but with a vengeance. Siberian air has pushed west and dropped a lot of paralyzing snow in eastern Europe. The cold will reach all the way west and snow may fall in parts of southern Europe that doesn't see it often even to the Mediterranean. as spokes rotate around the large cold vortex.gfs_europe_072_1000_500_thick.gif

gfs_europe_072_500_vort_ht.gif

In the United States after yet another non winter week, the cold arrives week 2. The question still remains is it preceded and accompanied by significant snows. The models are struggling with that and will for a few more days.

Todays; GFS has the cold arrive in the US next week. Remember the record cold trapped in Alaska.

16 days have been 40 below or lower in Fairbanks in January (ir December), there were only 4 with more.

JANUARY 1906.....21

JANUARY 1971.....21

DECEMBER 1917....20

JANUARY 1934.....20

JANUARY 2012.....16*

JANUARY 1969.....16

JANUARY 1947.....16

* Through January 30th

What happened in February in those years.

FEB%20AFTER%20COLD%20JAN%20AK.png

Interesting read from WeatherBell this morning.by Joseph D'aleo.

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I have taken note of my fantasy flizzard as these have been hard to come by :lol:

This is what I hope for especially after these past two brutal never ending summers :hug:

Any reasoning behind this?

Same reasoning behind my prediction that Winter would be mild with short transient periods of cold and little chance of Winter precip. Also that Spring would be a violent one with the pattern switch coming in mid-March early April leading to a borderground of severe weather somewhere between N. Ga. and the Carolinas. This is a classic La Nina weather pattern and I see no reasoning to make me change my thinking so far. I picked the analog years of 1990-91 and 1991-92 as far as the winter goes and those summers were uncomfortably warm and dry as will be this one (barring heavy tropical involvement)

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Same reasoning behind my prediction that Winter would be mild with short transient periods of cold and little chance of Winter precip. Also that Spring would be a violent one with the pattern switch coming in mid-March early April leading to a borderground of severe weather somewhere between N. Ga. and the Carolinas. This is a classic La Nina weather pattern and I see no reasoning to make me change my thinking so far. I picked the analog years of 1990-91 and 1991-92 as far as the winter goes and those summers were uncomfortably warm and dry as will be this one (barring heavy tropical involvement)

Well La Nina is weakening and it appears we are headed towards a weak Nino. By early summer we are likely to be neutral, and by late summer I think we will be flirting with weak Nino conditions. Also I'm not familiar with the word borderground, I would love to know what it means.

The winters of 1990-1991 and 1991-1992 were el nino years I don't understand how you would think those are good analog years. 90-91 was just under a weak nino, technically it was neutral and 91-92 was a strong el nino.

Winter 1990-1991

NDJ: +0.4

DJF: +0.4

JFM: +0.3

Winter 1991-1992

NDJ: +1.6

DJF: +1.8

JFM: +1.6

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Same reasoning behind my prediction that Winter would be mild with short transient periods of cold and little chance of Winter precip. Also that Spring would be a violent one with the pattern switch coming in mid-March early April leading to a borderground of severe weather somewhere between N. Ga. and the Carolinas. This is a classic La Nina weather pattern and I see no reasoning to make me change my thinking so far. I picked the analog years of 1990-91 and 1991-92 as far as the winter goes and those summers were uncomfortably warm and dry as will be this one (barring heavy tropical involvement)

Link please....just don't remember anyone calling for that on this board.

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Same reasoning behind my prediction that Winter would be mild with short transient periods of cold and little chance of Winter precip. Also that Spring would be a violent one with the pattern switch coming in mid-March early April leading to a borderground of severe weather somewhere between N. Ga. and the Carolinas. This is a classic La Nina weather pattern and I see no reasoning to make me change my thinking so far. I picked the analog years of 1990-91 and 1991-92 as far as the winter goes and those summers were uncomfortably warm and dry as will be this one (barring heavy tropical involvement)

Those years we were in a El Nino,not La Nina so those are bad analog years, and the temp and precip for CAE was near normal if memory serves me correctly. CAE the past two summers set all time highest average temps ever recorded, not just by a fraction of a degree either. Anything close to normal this summer would be a welcomed change.

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Obviously I didn't make myself clear on the La Nina years. The preceding year to 1990 (1989) was a strong La Nina year (much like last year's Nina which is the cause of this winter weather IMO) which led to a warm winter in 1990 and the carry over to 1991 was because there was no signal of either a Nina or Nino. As for borderground, it should have read battleground with the border being Ga to the Carolinas, my mistake. Not sure if I am allowed to link a different site here but it was in late November- early December on the WeatherBell site in a post, not sure if I carried it over here also before Dec or not to be honest. I am sure where you can see where I think we are headed for next winter so I will just go ahead and say it will be another mild (though not quite as mild as this one) Winter in the SE next year barring something really unusual occurring

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NCEP Operational Status Message

Wed Feb 1 14:59:48 2012 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 011459

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

1457Z WED FEB 01 2012

AFTER THIS MORNINGS COMMS ISSUE RESOLVED..THE 12Z GFS IS EXPECTED

TO RUN ON TIME. EXPECT ABOUT AN HR DELAY ON AVG FOR THE 12Z

NAM...13Z RUC.

12Z RAOB RECAP...

JAN/72235 - SHORT TO 682MB.

PBZ/72520 - SHORT TO 784MB.

PPG/91765 - 10159.

ZAC/76526 - MISSING PART A.

PTP/78897 - DELETED TEMPS 728 TO 697 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT.

SXM/78866 - DELETED TEMPS 790 TO 742 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT.

$$

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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I had asked that question a couple of weeks ago without a response. I am glad to see that's what it looks like right now. My cooling bill last year was nothing short of brutal.

I must have missed it...sorry about that. But I it looks like I am already wrong seven months before verification!

:weight_lift:

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Well La Nina is weakening and it appears we are headed towards a weak Nino. By early summer we are likely to be neutral, and by late summer I think we will be flirting with weak Nino conditions. Also I'm not familiar with the word borderground, I would love to know what it means.

I freaking love your responses Marietta - seriously.

The major cause of the winter bust this year - IMO - has been the progressive PJ under-cutting everything. In turn, you get no block of -NAO (which we had during last year's La Nina). Can this not also occur during Nino years?

Why we have to classify everything into one of the Latin Children episodes, I still don't understand. But, I'm no Met by any stretch...

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Same reasoning behind my prediction that Winter would be mild with short transient periods of cold and little chance of Winter precip. Also that Spring would be a violent one with the pattern switch coming in mid-March early April leading to a borderground of severe weather somewhere between N. Ga. and the Carolinas. This is a classic La Nina weather pattern and I see no reasoning to make me change my thinking so far. I picked the analog years of 1990-91 and 1991-92 as far as the winter goes and those summers were uncomfortably warm and dry as will be this one (barring heavy tropical involvement)

Are you seriously telling us that we are going to have our THIRD consecutive brutal summer in a row ? Atlanta has had 2 of it's 3 hottest summers ever the last 2 summers. Why can't we just have a normal summer for a change ?

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Same reasoning behind my prediction that Winter would be mild with short transient periods of cold and little chance of Winter precip.

Link please....just don't remember anyone calling for that on this board.

My opinion was for just weak cold transient shots all winter.

I guess no one listened to me!

:whistle:

So back to the 12z, when does our 1" of ice accretion commence for this weekend?

Do I ever hope we all get one unexpected wallop of snow with 12 - 24 hours notice before mid-March comes along.

Or a repeat of the 60s style winter that gave western NC 4 Wednesdays of snow on top of snow the entire month of March.

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I freaking love your responses Marietta - seriously.

The major cause of the winter bust this year - IMO - has been the progressive PJ under-cutting everything. In turn, you get no block of -NAO (which we had during last year's La Nina). Can this not also occur during Nino years?

Why we have to classify everything into one of the Latin Children episodes, I still don't understand. But, I'm no Met by any stretch...

Thank you. :hug: We learned last winter that a -NAO, if strong enough can trump the typical pattern set by ENSO conditions, I don't know if that applies to summer but I doubt it. I'm not aware of a link between ENSO state and blocking or lack of blocking, if there is one I'd love to learn more about it.

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It's rather funny when we can go an entire model run on the first day of February with no mention of anything about it. To break the silence, it didn't look all that bad to me. Has our storm at hr 204, suppressed with decaying cold ready to be tapped.

Then after that it looks to pull some sort of tropical system in to merge with the cold. LOL!! better to laugh then cry...

gfs_namer_324_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Wow, I am really proud of the group- the 12Z GFS has a snow event of pretty good magnitude at fantasy range and nary a peep! BTW, the ensembles look nothing like the Op run, no surprise....

I saw it and laughed in it's face at hour 348! I am not going to let Goofy fool me into hoping no more! Tired of being teased. LOL!

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