burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 @216 our low takes a perfect track but temps are not cold enough. Of course the low treks up north and pulls down the cold air as soon as it leaves. On a good note it still has that Miller A....we just need the cold to get here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 yep...at 192, Gulf Low begins to form but zero cold air source to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 People are going to like the LR...another Miller A look riding up the coast with cold temps. Very good look after 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Cold air arrives too late for the next system around Day 10 but had that system slowed down some... EDIT: Something else of interest pops at 276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Per 0z Goofy, coastal NC snow 2/12 with followup wave to 2/9 Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well I'm off to bed. Good luck on the Euro. Hopefully it gives us something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Pretty much zero PNA ridge through 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Looks like they dropped 7 dropsondes...the obs don't mean crap to me, but hopefully they bring some mojo to the models. http://i.imgur.com/vEAt0.jpg (large image) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Looks like they dropped 7 dropsnodes...the obs don't mean crap to me, but hopefully they bring some mojo to the models. http://i.imgur.com/vEAt0.jpg (large image) Is this data being used by the 0Z GFS? If so, perhaps that can partially explain such a different run. Then again, variability is the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Is this data being used by the 0Z GFS? If so, perhaps that can partially explain such a different run. Then again, variability is the norm. I'd guess for the 0z runs tomorrow...don't know the process (if there is one) for incorporating the data into the models, but I understand that a few mets look over the data before they do anything with it to check for errors and accuracy. Trying to learn more about this myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Keep the original graphic Stovepipe...the meaningful +PNA we are looking for goes up after 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The 2 closed ridges on the gfs really muck up the flow early on and prevent a ton of cold air delivery as the flow is veered zonal. Once those clear out of the picture and we see more meridional flow the cold will start building southward. The UKMet has taken the other models to the woodshed with closing the late week wave off over the Rockies....it's had that look for days now. It gets all of that junk into the Ohio Valley some 24 hours ahead of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Ya guys if you have a chance please visit talkweather.com and read up on SD analysis just like Gastonwxman said. Just great stuff guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here's the latest GFS Ensemble....this may be the most consistently modeled Miller A in the history of the free world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here's the latest GFS Ensemble....this may be the most consistently modeled Miller A in the history of the free world. Via DT: **ALERT*** 0Z GFS ENSEMBLES has MAJOR LOW JUST OFF THE VA NC COAST 7PM FEB 11 ... snow over central nc eastern va coastal I-95. The SURFACE low is probably too far East Upper air/ 500 MB maps looks very good. I want to see that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Via DT: **ALERT*** 0Z GFS ENSEMBLES has MAJOR LOW JUST OFF THE VA NC COAST 7PM FEB 11 ... snow over central nc eastern va coastal I-95. The SURFACE low is probably too far East Upper air/ 500 MB maps looks very good. I want to see that map. Here it is...mean trough to the west of the sfc low, extending down into the northern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here it is...mean trough to the west of the sfc low, extending down into the northern gulf. Thanks. I thought he was talking about an individual member lol. Nevermind. It does look good though. Individual members should be promising from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice cold shot coming in on the Euro at 168 with a 1040 high building in. Question is how far south does it come... EDIT: Well it seeps in for one day and then heads out the next on 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Sorry, but the above maps are misleading. I looked fairly closely at the ensemble mean charts, and the 0 line at 850 does not enter NC until after the low is pretty far out to sea and the precip had ended or motly ended. Plus, the GFS is pretty likely a total POS in the shorter term (massive differences between it and the UKIE, Euro and CMC), so why should we believe the ensembles in the 8-9 day range. Still not totally ruling out some sort of event after 8 or 9 days, but still very skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 How the 6z is so drastically different from the 00z is beyond me. Oh well on to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Surprised no one mentioned 192 on the Euro. Has some flurries for CAE to just past CLT...granted it's just one frame...but it's something. Could be a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Taking into account the fact that everything had come back west this year (or maybe I'm just remembering the evolution of this current system on the euro) would hope for the sake of all that the trough being modeled on the euro and gfs ends up over the entire east, instead of just the me and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 getting ready to throw in the towel here. I was up beat a couple days ago but I think the reality of a shutout winter is setting in this morning. It doesn't help matters that today's high will be around 70 degrees, possibly above it. I'm not buying the GFS Miller A storm in the extended, it just does not have much support from other guidance, the overall pattern, and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 6z Gfs ensembles still look a lot better but the operational looked like it was having a hard time changing the pattern thats for sure. Hopefully it is not sniffing out just more of the same and is a hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I agree, I'm worried about the models continued push back of the cold. I'm also worried about this coming spring; most have stated similar years have produced cold spring. So we get the worst possible weather, warm winter with no snow, cold spring with killing freezes but no snow, and then if La Nina is still influencing the pattern a hot dry summer. How's that for depressing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I agree, I'm worried about the models continued push back of the cold. I'm also worried about this coming spring; most have stated similar years have produced cold spring. So we get the worst possible weather, warm winter with no snow, cold spring with killing freezes but no snow, and then if La Nina is still influencing the pattern a hot dry summer. How's that for depressing? Sheesh....Summer has a good chance to be on the normal to below normal side at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Sheesh....Summer has a good chance to be on the normal to below normal side at least.... Yep - and we sure could use it. If Winter is going to bypass the cold lovers, then at least give us a break from the summer camps spent in Hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Sheesh....Summer has a good chance to be on the normal to below normal side at least.... I had asked that question a couple of weeks ago without a response. I am glad to see that's what it looks like right now. My cooling bill last year was nothing short of brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Is the NAM broken? Its 8:21 CST and stuck on hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I do hope La Nina does drop. From what I read most do expect the (2nd) peak about now. The question is how long does the influence continue? Even it it drops to normal or below, can we still get a La Nina type pattern for the summer? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120119152001.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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