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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Is this data being used by the 0Z GFS? If so, perhaps that can partially explain such a different run. Then again, variability is the norm.

I'd guess for the 0z runs tomorrow...don't know the process (if there is one) for incorporating the data into the models, but I understand that a few mets look over the data before they do anything with it to check for errors and accuracy. Trying to learn more about this myself.

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The 2 closed ridges on the gfs really muck up the flow early on and prevent a ton of cold air delivery as the flow is veered zonal. Once those clear out of the picture and we see more meridional flow the cold will start building southward.

The UKMet has taken the other models to the woodshed with closing the late week wave off over the Rockies....it's had that look for days now. It gets all of that junk into the Ohio Valley some 24 hours ahead of the GFS.

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Here's the latest GFS Ensemble....this may be the most consistently modeled Miller A in the history of the free world.

Via DT: **ALERT*** 0Z GFS ENSEMBLES has MAJOR LOW JUST OFF THE VA NC COAST 7PM FEB 11 ... snow over central nc eastern va coastal I-95. The SURFACE low is probably too far East Upper air/ 500 MB maps looks very good.

I want to see that map. :lmao:

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Via DT: **ALERT*** 0Z GFS ENSEMBLES has MAJOR LOW JUST OFF THE VA NC COAST 7PM FEB 11 ... snow over central nc eastern va coastal I-95. The SURFACE low is probably too far East Upper air/ 500 MB maps looks very good.

I want to see that map. :lmao:

Here it is...mean trough to the west of the sfc low, extending down into the northern gulf.

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Here it is...mean trough to the west of the sfc low, extending down into the northern gulf.

Thanks. I thought he was talking about an individual member lol. Nevermind. It does look good though. Individual members should be promising from this run.

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Sorry, but the above maps are misleading. I looked fairly closely at the ensemble mean charts, and the 0 line at 850 does not enter NC until after the low is pretty far out to sea and the precip had ended or motly ended. Plus, the GFS is pretty likely a total POS in the shorter term (massive differences between it and the UKIE, Euro and CMC), so why should we believe the ensembles in the 8-9 day range. Still not totally ruling out some sort of event after 8 or 9 days, but still very skeptical.

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Taking into account the fact that everything had come back west this year (or maybe I'm just remembering the evolution of this current system on the euro) would hope for the sake of all that the trough being modeled on the euro and gfs ends up over the entire east, instead of just the me and coast.

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getting ready to throw in the towel here. I was up beat a couple days ago but I think the reality of a shutout winter is setting in this morning. It doesn't help matters that today's high will be around 70 degrees, possibly above it. I'm not buying the GFS Miller A storm in the extended, it just does not have much support from other guidance, the overall pattern, and so on.

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I agree, I'm worried about the models continued push back of the cold. I'm also worried about this coming spring; most have stated similar years have produced cold spring. So we get the worst possible weather, warm winter with no snow, cold spring with killing freezes but no snow, and then if La Nina is still influencing the pattern a hot dry summer.

How's that for depressing?

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I agree, I'm worried about the models continued push back of the cold. I'm also worried about this coming spring; most have stated similar years have produced cold spring. So we get the worst possible weather, warm winter with no snow, cold spring with killing freezes but no snow, and then if La Nina is still influencing the pattern a hot dry summer.

How's that for depressing?

:unsure: Sheesh....Summer has a good chance to be on the normal to below normal side at least....

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