jburns Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't remember 2004 being a snowy pattern. My avatar is my deck on Feb 27, 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I guess we need to keep in mind the Ops are all over the place with the pattern change. Really wild swings. That's always been the case with patten change. Don't know if it means we get winter weather, but it seems our best shot is coming up from the 10th on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 End of this run has our system in the GOM and it's not heading to Cuba looks like to me it's close to a good track. Temps are starting to sag south @240. Instead of "meh" it gets a So...do you get your snow on the 10th, and me my sleet on the 13/14th? You still all in? Or holding back some chips? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If the MJO was indeed wrong, the hopes for February are hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Would the info from the Winter Recon flights be in tonights model output or start showing up tomorrow? Gonna be real interesting to see what the models do with that pac ridge after that info...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If the MJO was indeed wrong, the hopes for February are hosed. Agreed! The GFS/Euro look to get into phase 8 and are headed to phase 1 or the circle of death. The western ridge argues for phase 8 but that is a dry phase, we need phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Euro is not far off from a good pattern. I know, we've been saying that all winter. Aleutian Low. W Canada ridging. Ridging into Greenland. Hints of a southern stream with a wave in northern Mexico and another one approaching California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If the MJO was indeed wrong, the hopes for February are hosed. Maybe it will be important in this case, but I don't necessarily agree that it is crucial based on KATL major S/IP storms since the late 1970's. These have occurred throughout all phases and fairly evenly...even during the so-called warmer phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FWIW, the Canadian had a better look than the GFS in the 156-180 timeframe. Stronger western ridge and arctic front moving south through the Great Lakes at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 So...do you get your snow on the 10th, and me my sleet on the 13/14th? You still all in? Or holding back some chips? Tony Still all in. It's go big or go home time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Based on major (i.e. 3.5"+) KATL S/IP data since 1974, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on MJO phase for major snow/IP in ATL. For the eleven KATL major S/IP's since 1974, yes, there have been more during phase 8 (four) vs. any other one phase. However, the neighboring good phase 7 only had one and the other good phase 1 had zero. So, the total for phases 7, 8 and 1 was only five of the eleven total majors....i.e., not far from the four that would be expected had all phases been equal in terms of major chances. Interestingly, the second largest number was the three during phase 4. Two of the worst ATL winter storms since 1974, the 3/1993 blizzard and snowjam 1982, were actually during phase 4. The third highest number of majors was the two during phase 3. This included one of the two worst sleet storms in ATL history, 2/1979. The paralyzing S/IP storm of 1/2011 was during phases 5 and 6. Well, phases 3-6 are supposedly four of the "bad" phases, but they accounted for four of the five most paralyzing ATL S/IP's. My point is that little emphasis should be placed on the MJO phase when talking about KATL major S/IP chances, especially of the paralyzing variety. What about the five major ATL ZR's since 1974? Well, the most interesting that I found was that all five major ATL ZR's occurred when the MJO was inside the circle, i.e. of low intensity. Of the five, 2.5 were during phase 2, one was during phase 5, one was during phase 8, and one-half was during phase 1. So, the supposedly more favorable phases of 7, 8 and 1 accounted for only 1.5 of the five major KATL ZR's. Combining major KATL S/IP and major ZR storms (16 total), phases 7, 8 and 1 accounted for 6.5 of the 16, or 41% of the 16. If each phase had had equal numbers (i.e., 12.5%), the total for those three phases would have been 37.5%. So, this emphasizes that based on the last 37 years of data, little emphasis should be placed on the MJO phase when talking about KATL major winter storm chances. Although it would be nice to see more data (more storms), there appears to be enough data out there (16 major storms) to at least say that there is no evidence of a sig. correlation between phases 7,8 and 1 as a group and higher major winter storm chances at KATL. One might argue that there may be enough data to say there may be a somewhat enhanced chance during phase 8, alone, since 5 of the 16 majors were during phase 8, alone. Then again, why did the neighboring good phases of 7 and 1 have so little activity (only 1.5 for those two phases, combined)? That makes me a bit skeptical about the actual favorability of phase 8. Perhaps, the most interesting conclusion is that the chances for a major ATL ZR may be enhanced when the MJO intensity is weak (i.e. within the circle or under 1.0). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think I can help you with this one, Brick. When the models show warm beyond five days, you're good to go with believing them. When the models show cold and snow beyond five days, they are categorically and abysmally useless. And if they ever show a 1050+ High moving SE out of Canada into the upper mid-west, they are mocking and taunting you. High pressure of that magnitude in that location will only exist in 10 day fantasy land model depictions or on old maps from a bygone era. It's also important to remember another critical rule: When the Op shows cold and snow but the ensembles do not, then the Op is simply leading the way. Conversely, when the Op loses the threat, but the ensembles still show some potential, then the Op is out to lunch. Hope that helps! I really hope this isn't taken the wrong way, but I think it's pretty much a waste of time to even analyze the models beyond 5 days right now. In all my years of forecasting, I can't tell you how many times the models have shown something in the 7-10 day range, only to take it away once better data got ingested into them regarding the specific energy they were trying to model. We know how well the euro does in that 3-5 day range, but a lot of the signals for a pattern change are (and have been) showing up well outside that range, and mostly in the 10 day range...and it's been that way most of the winter. If you think about it, the models haven't been that bad in the 3-5 day range this winter, but we're all so desparate to find a sign that the pattern is going to improve that we keep looking farther and farther out. I have been as guilty as anyone of this much of this winter, but at this point I'm refusing to acknowledge anything the model suggests beyond 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I really hope this isn't taken the wrong way, but I think it's pretty much a waste of time to even analyze the models beyond 5 days right now. In all my years of forecasting, I can't tell you how many times the models have shown something in the 7-10 day range, only to take it away once better data got ingested into them regarding the specific energy they were trying to model. We know how well the euro does in that 3-5 day range, but a lot of the signals for a pattern change are (and have been) showing up well outside that range, and mostly in the 10 day range...and it's been that way most of the winter. If you think about it, the models haven't been that bad in the 3-5 day range this winter, but we're all so desparate to find a sign that the pattern is going to improve that we keep looking farther and farther out. I have been as guilty as anyone of this much of this winter, but at this point I'm refusing to acknowledge anything the model suggests beyond 120 hours. I think there is a big difference though in looking at models and trying to write a forecast 5-10 days away (very difficult to impossible at times) vs. looking at op and ensemble outputs for the projected evolution of large scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I really hope this isn't taken the wrong way, but I think it's pretty much a waste of time to even analyze the models beyond 5 days right now. In all my years of forecasting, I can't tell you how many times the models have shown something in the 7-10 day range, only to take it away once better data got ingested into them regarding the specific energy they were trying to model. We know how well the euro does in that 3-5 day range, but a lot of the signals for a pattern change are (and have been) showing up well outside that range, and mostly in the 10 day range...and it's been that way most of the winter. If you think about it, the models haven't been that bad in the 3-5 day range this winter, but we're all so desparate to find a sign that the pattern is going to improve that we keep looking farther and farther out. I have been as guilty as anyone of this much of this winter, but at this point I'm refusing to acknowledge anything the model suggests beyond 120 hours. So your not buying the western ridge and trough developing in the east in the 7-10 day period? Or are you saying it's foolish to look at specific events at day 10-12? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Based on major (i.e. 3.5"+) KATL S/IP data since 1974, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on MJO phase for major snow/IP in ATL. For the eleven KATL major S/IP's since 1974, yes, there have been more during phase 8 (four) vs. any other one phase. However, the neighboring good phase 7 only had one and the other good phase 1 had zero. So, the total for phases 7, 8 and 1 was only five of the eleven total majors....i.e., not far from the four that would be expected had all phases been equal in terms of major chances. Interestingly, the second largest number was the three during phase 4. Two of the worst ATL winter storms since 1974, the 3/1993 blizzard and snowjam 1982, were actually during phase 4. The third highest number of majors was the two during phase 3. This included one of the two worst sleet storms in ATL history, 2/1979. The paralyzing S/IP storm of 1/2011 was during phases 5 and 6. Well, phases 3-6 are supposedly four of the "bad" phases, but they accounted for four of the five most paralyzing ATL S/IP's. My point is that little emphasis should be placed on the MJO phase when talking about KATL major S/IP chances, especially of the paralyzing variety. What about the five major ATL ZR's since 1974? Well, the most interesting that I found was that all five major ATL ZR's occurred when the MJO was inside the circle, i.e. of low intensity. Of the five, 2.5 were during phase 2, one was during phase 5, one was during phase 8, and one-half was during phase 1. So, the supposedly more favorable phases of 7, 8 and 1 accounted for only 1.5 of the five major KATL ZR's. Combining major KATL S/IP and major ZR storms (16 total), phases 7, 8 and 1 accounted for 6.5 of the 16, or 41% of the 16. If each phase had had equal numbers (i.e., 12.5%), the total for those three phases would have been 37.5%. So, this emphasizes that based on the last 37 years of data, little emphasis should be placed on the MJO phase when talking about KATL major winter storm chances. Although it would be nice to see more data (more storms), there appears to be enough data out there (16 major storms) to at least say that there is no evidence of a sig. correlation between phases 7,8 and 1 as a group and higher major winter storm chances at KATL. One might argue that there may be enough data to say there may be a somewhat enhanced chance during phase 8, alone, since 5 of the 16 majors were during phase 8, alone. Then again, why did the neighboring good phases of 7 and 1 have so little activity (only 1.5 for those two phases, combined)? That makes me a bit skeptical about the actual favorability of phase 8. Perhaps, the most interesting conclusion is that the chances for a major ATL ZR may be enhanced when the MJO intensity is weak (i.e. within the circle or under 1.0). Great info GA...only thing I'm not following is with respect to phase 7....this link indicates that phase 7 has warm anomalies in the SE....with phases 8, 1, 2 having the best cold anomalies in the SE (and add phase 3 later in the winter - Jan/Feb/Mar) - http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So your not buying the western ridge and trough developing in the east in the 7-10 day period? Or are you saying it's foolish to look at specific events at day 10-12? Or both? At this point I'm not buying anything at that time frame. The system this week that the models have been in chaos about are going to affect the longer range pattern, and it just a continuous feedback the farther out in time you go. I personally try to stay away from looking at any specific event beyond 7 days, because the inherent error in models is just too great at that time range to be trusted. I do agree that you can sometimes start to see a pattern change developing at 7-10 days, but even there small details with individual storms are ultimately going to alter the predicted pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think there is a big difference though in looking at models and trying to write a forecast 5-10 days away (very difficult to impossible at times) vs. looking at op and ensemble outputs for the projected evolution of large scale features. Well said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At this point I'm not buying anything at that time frame. The system this week that the models have been in chaos about are going to affect the longer range pattern, and it just a continuous feedback the farther out in time you go. I personally try to stay away from looking at any specific event beyond 7 days, because the inherent error in models is just too great at that time range to be trusted. I do agree that you can sometimes start to see a pattern change developing at 7-10 days, but even there small details with individual storms are ultimately going to alter the predicted pattern. Thanks! The early Jan pattern change was brutal, it looked promising for a colder setup to occur at the day 10 mark and disaster occurred, but I don't think we had the model consensus we have now, but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Still all in. It's go big or go home time! I don't know Burgerman! Read Larry's post, then consider moving to the Atl. area, where we don't get as much as you guys do, but we say, "mjo phase? We don't need no stinkin' mjo phase", lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I really hope this isn't taken the wrong way, but I think it's pretty much a waste of time to even analyze the models beyond 5 days right now. In all my years of forecasting, I can't tell you how many times the models have shown something in the 7-10 day range, only to take it away once better data got ingested into them regarding the specific energy they were trying to model. We know how well the euro does in that 3-5 day range, but a lot of the signals for a pattern change are (and have been) showing up well outside that range, and mostly in the 10 day range...and it's been that way most of the winter. If you think about it, the models haven't been that bad in the 3-5 day range this winter, but we're all so desparate to find a sign that the pattern is going to improve that we keep looking farther and farther out. I have been as guilty as anyone of this much of this winter, but at this point I'm refusing to acknowledge anything the model suggests beyond 120 hours. I pretty much agree with you. I was joking around with Brick earlier. I don't think it's ever wise to believe specific threats on the models outside of a few days, but I have seen better accuracy in previous years when it comes to honing in on pattern changes, although those years have their share of false starts. This year has just been one big false start from front to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This afternoon's RAH Long term discussion: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT NWP RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN PULLING ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN DIVERGE WITH HOW THIS ENERGY MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OR INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND ACCORDINGLY THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS AN ARC PF PRECIPITATION TO THE THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION AND GIVEN ENOUGH PRECIPITATION...A DAMMING EVENT MAY SETUP FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW PTYPE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...DAMMING AND PRECIPITATION. -BLAES -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I saw my first iris blooming today... A meterologist friend reminded me today that the longer the severe cold stays in place this month, the greater the liklihood that there will be severe storms later on when the cold air finally begins moving south. Considering how warm the air is now, things could be pretty bad for somebody. I'd much rather face an ice storm than a tornado! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Great info GA...only thing I'm not following is with respect to phase 7....this link indicates that phase 7 has warm anomalies in the SE....with phases 8, 1, 2 having the best cold anomalies in the SE (and add phase 3 later in the winter - Jan/Feb/Mar) - http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Supposedly the CFSv2 is a better MJO predictor.http://www.daculaweather.com/ncep_mjo.php Here's the mean of all the models and each model individually: http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast.php And last but not least, the 30 and 90 days MJO anomalies, don't expect any of them to be very accurate past 5 days: http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast_anomaly.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At this point I'm not buying anything at that time frame. The system this week that the models have been in chaos about are going to affect the longer range pattern, and it just a continuous feedback the farther out in time you go. I personally try to stay away from looking at any specific event beyond 7 days, because the inherent error in models is just too great at that time range to be trusted. I do agree that you can sometimes start to see a pattern change developing at 7-10 days, but even there small details with individual storms are ultimately going to alter the predicted pattern. Welcome to the forum! I look forward to hearing your insights! Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't know Burgerman! Read Larry's post, then consider moving to the Atl. area, where we don't get as much as you guys do, but we say, "mjo phase? We don't need no stinkin' mjo phase", lol. T Old rule of thumb though is that if ATL gets snow usually CLT does as well, so I secretly want that ATL area to get something so I can hopefully cash in. Good write up by Larry for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Good write up by Robert... http://wxsouth.com/?p=95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At this point I'm not buying anything at that time frame. The system this week that the models have been in chaos about are going to affect the longer range pattern, and it just a continuous feedback the farther out in time you go. I personally try to stay away from looking at any specific event beyond 7 days, because the inherent error in models is just too great at that time range to be trusted. I do agree that you can sometimes start to see a pattern change developing at 7-10 days, but even there small details with individual storms are ultimately going to alter the predicted pattern. You are preaching to this choir- many times the past month or two the Op models have had what turned out to be completely bogus wintry solutions for the SE, and in most if not all cases the ensembles of that particular run were much different. There is little question that the ensembles will win out in many many cases, especially if the Op models are jumping around a lot. This is even more true in a strong zonal setup like we are in presently. One thing I see in the ensembles right now is that are few if any members really show a good pattern for SE wintry weather the next 1-2 weeks. The Euro ensemble spaghetti plots for the NAO and AO are quite spread out after 7 days, but few solutions are strongly negative. My conclusion right now is except for maybe a small ice threat in the NC/VA area with the upcoming CAD we wil likely have to wait for a better pattern, which may never come at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Good write up by Robert... http://wxsouth.com/?p=95 There are two of us working on the advanced subscription features that Robert wants on his site. Tonight I'm working on an opening page that will then lead you to a subscription signup page or to a login page. I figure we have another week or so of work and fine tuning and he should be good to go. I hope everyone will help Robert out by getting a subscription when it's available. Robert has been one of the most valuable resources I've had for weather related information and I just want to be able to repay him in anyway I can. Again, his new site is http://www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Good write up by Robert... http://wxsouth.com/?p=95 Wow, brutal read, he isn't buying the western ridge/east trough. Since he isn't the only one, if the models don't bring it closer than we can really start to think about canceling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wow, brutal read, he isn't buying the western ridge/east trough. Since he isn't the only one, if the models don't bring it closer than we can really start to think about canceling winter. I agree, sadly. When he starts talking like that...it may just be time to cut our losses and move along. (sigh) (in a month or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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