LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think its funny how so many people on here just live and die by every single run of the models. Hey, it looks good today, we're gonna get snow for sure. Oh no, it looks bad, winters over. Hilarious what? If you have a chance show me where I live and die by each model run. I have never said we would get snow for sure. Please don't quote one of my posts and them make a claim like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Looking at the surface temperatures this run only has 5 days where the high temperature was at or below normal at GSO. If you figured in the low temperature and came up with the mean temperature, I could only see a couple of days below normal and that is at the very end of the run. If this run were to verify the Triad of NC would not have a night time low below freezing until Valentine's Day! I know this will change with every run, but this one was pretty bad. Even when it does get cold, it is really not that cold for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 what? If you have a chance show me where I live and die by each model run. I have never said we would get snow for sure. Please don't quote one of my posts and them make a claim like that. I wasn't trying to single you out, but to point out how so many here just waver back and forth emotionally with each run. What I wrote previously was just an example of what is normally said on here when the models are good and bad, not an actual quote from you or anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS Ensemble still looks good, colder than the OP, has the Feb 11th fantasy storm, it clips the eastern Carolina's, so it's way west of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well I think the models are showing there will be west ridge and we see a piece of the PV break off and setup shop in eastern Canada, we are not getting the really tall ridge and the PV isn't sagging as far south as we like and blocking doesn't look to set in so cold spells come and go. Still gives us a chance, let's not abandon all hope just yet, even though I want to really bad. Good summary PB. GFS Ens looks better than the OP run and continues with the 2/11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I wasn't trying to single you out, but to point out how so many here just waver back and forth emotionally with each run. What I wrote previously was just an example of what is normally said on here when the models are good and bad, not an actual quote from you or anyone else. Fair enough, thank you for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS Ens potential storm. I hate the low up by the lakes, we really don't want that there, but at least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 One other positive thing I saw today (there weren't many)....was the GFS SuperEnsemble from CPC. This map is a 500mb 5 day mean for the period Feb 9-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The good news is the 12z Ensembles say the OP is on Crack. Lets hope they are right. The average has the SE in cool to cold anamolies from 132 till the end of the run. Looks good to me but I can't forget this has yet to happen this winter with that kind of sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 One other positive thing I saw today (there weren't many)....was the GFS SuperEnsemble from CPC. This map is a 500mb 5 day mean for the period Feb 9-13 Love seeing 2004 show up there, also 1978 and 1980 are snowy patterns too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Looks like the GFS is warmer and without a storm in south central NC. Hopefully that will change in the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Love seeing 2004 show up there, also 1978 and 1980 are snowy patterns too. I don't remember 2004 being a snowy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12Z Euro 8-10 day looking to come in a good bit colder than the 0Z Euro based on much taller W NOAM ridge day 6! Stay tuned, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 144 looks like a nice cold shot diving south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 12Z Euro 8-10 day looking to come in a good bit colder than the 0Z Euro based on much taller W NOAM ridge day 6! Stay tuned, folks! It would appear out to 180 12z Euro will look better. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 @186 it's a good bit colder than the 00z run. Also there is some energy out in west MX...of course that could be a little too far south to do us any good but hopefully it picks up and gives us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 @192 some really cold air moving into the NE from Canada...looks much better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 @204 not looking so good for the SE our cold air was transient and it's retreating. Does look like something brewing in TX though so it could be picking up on the low the GFS has been on for many runs. That being said, it is colder than 00z...so perhaps it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't remember 2004 being a snowy pattern. Feb 2004 was epic for NC, several little events and than one big event, Charlotte was jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 2nd Arctic high coming down day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 @204 not looking so good for the SE our cold air was transient and it's retreating. Does look like something brewing in TX though so it could be picking up on the low the GFS has been on for many runs. That being said, it is colder than 00z...so perhaps it's a trend. Bloody vort up at the lakes is blocking all the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It really makes you wonder how useful the models are more than 5 days out. I guess they could be showing a pattern, but the flip-flopping makes it very hard to trust them even for that, let along specifics. I think I can help you with this one, Brick. When the models show warm beyond five days, you're good to go with believing them. When the models show cold and snow beyond five days, they are categorically and abysmally useless. And if they ever show a 1050+ High moving SE out of Canada into the upper mid-west, they are mocking and taunting you. High pressure of that magnitude in that location will only exist in 10 day fantasy land model depictions or on old maps from a bygone era. It's also important to remember another critical rule: When the Op shows cold and snow but the ensembles do not, then the Op is simply leading the way. Conversely, when the Op loses the threat, but the ensembles still show some potential, then the Op is out to lunch. Hope that helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Feb 2004 was historic for Charlotte to Highpoint, NC. I will never forget that night heavy wet snow with thunder next morning there was 15 inches on the ground and gone 2 days later. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Baby steps, folks. Baby steps. The 12Z Euro has a much better looking W NOAM ridge that brings down several nice Arcitc highs and much colder air for especially the MW and NE in the 7-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 While it isn't exactly what we want I think the Euro is taking a step in the right direction. Larry can chime in on this as well. Storm is brewing in the GOM looks like it might be a tick north of the 00z run and temps look better than last nights run. We just have to hope this is a trend and the storm goes north and temps go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Baby steps, folks. Baby steps. The 12Z Euro has a much better looking W NOAM ridge that brings down several nice Arcitc highs and much colder air for especially the MW and NE in the 7-10 day period. Ah, I see you beat me to it. Looks like it's looking better especially compared to last night. I have a feeling the end of this run is going to give us hope. That storm doesn't look to head to Cuba and temps are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'll take my chances on this at 7 days here in Nashville. Major trough with energy coming down the ridge, and a piece out west undercutting the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 End of this run has our system in the GOM and it's not heading to Cuba looks like to me it's close to a good track. Temps are starting to sag south @240. Instead of "meh" it gets a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If there's anything we learned in the past, it's that we don't want to be in the jackpot so early with any potential threat anyway. I always felt better knowing that we took a gradual approach toward something that could potentially bring something of interest into our region. If this is the beginning of some sort of upward trend, then I'm fine with what was just depicted on today's 12z and hopefully it continues to improve along with the GFS ensembles holding on to their better look compared to their OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Now we await word from Cheez as to the Euro ENS...good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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