Mr Bob Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dang....the Euro must be REALLY awful for no one to even post. LOL! Yup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dealing with this weekends system, the 6z GFS is showing the high more locked in then in previous runs. This is something we should follow. RAH from last night is not that impressed, but they also did not see the 6z (.....if that matters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I am sorry but I can careless about Rain in the Winter. This Winter all I hear is everyone saying oh we are getting X amount of inches of rain. Who cares? Honestly, we are snow lovers here this time of the year. Also people need to stop paying attention to the GFS this Winter unless they want to jump off a cliff every week. GFS givith and takith backith! This type of posts aren't useful or wanted. This thread does not say " southeast mid/long range snow discussion thread". Consider this a verbal warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yup... Do you think we have any hope of a good pattern in the next few weeks? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Do you think we have any hope of a good pattern in the next few weeks? TIA It is a different pattern I suppose over the next couple of weeks but does not look sustainable and really, not much cold air gets into the southeast...The new weeklies are fairly variable (but not cold)... given that there is very little snow cover and not much of a locked in blocking regime we will most likely grade out above normal all three months this winter. While I did expect a warmer than average winter this year, it is surprising that we have not had even one real widespread sub 20 degree morning this winter here in the TN Valley. Would have thought we would have had a week or two of more sustained cold just based on simple history...of course we are not done yet...but it sure is starting to feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It is a different pattern I suppose over the next couple of weeks but does not look sustainable and really, not much cold air gets into the southeast...The new weeklies are fairly variable (but not cold)... given that there is very little snow cover and not much of a locked in blocking regime we will most likely grade out above normal all three months this winter. While I did expect a warmer than average winter this year, it is surprising that we have not had even one real widespread sub 20 degree morning this winter here in the TN Valley. Would have thought we would have had a week or two of more sustained cold just based on simple history...of course we are not done yet...but it sure is starting to feel like it. Thank you, although I would like to see some snow, when it's get mid Feb I'm in spring mode anyway!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dealing with this weekends system, the 6z GFS is showing the high more locked in then in previous runs. This is something we should follow. RAH from last night is not that impressed, but they also did not see the 6z (.....if that matters). Yes, It looks like the 6z GooFus did throw us a bone compared to the last few runs but still has a long ways to go. I don't think anyone trust it anymore anyway though unless more models start to trend as well. The above does look better with more CAD but don't know if it would be enough. Its the trends that we need to look for. A few of the 6z ensembles actually look good with a winter storm shown for some of the SE. Of course there is little to no support from any of the other models I glanced at but I'm no met so what do I know LOL. Lets pray the 6z GFS is the start of trending back our CAD stronger each run with moisture in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 It is a different pattern I suppose over the next couple of weeks but does not look sustainable and really, not much cold air gets into the southeast...The new weeklies are fairly variable (but not cold)... given that there is very little snow cover and not much of a locked in blocking regime we will most likely grade out above normal all three months this winter. While I did expect a warmer than average winter this year, it is surprising that we have not had even one real widespread sub 20 degree morning this winter here in the TN Valley. Would have thought we would have had a week or two of more sustained cold just based on simple history...of course we are not done yet...but it sure is starting to feel like it. Obviously you are not buying what the GFS is selling. TBH even my unwavering optimism is starting to diminish after seeing run after run of the Euro look nothing like the GFS ...then the GFS keep pushing back the great look. We'll see though, like you said you would think we would have at least one widespread something if at least a stretch of colder than average temps. Thanks for taking the time and always giving us insights on the Euro Weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dang....the Euro must be REALLY awful for no one to even post. LOL! Don't worry it will change...it's the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Two flights scheduled, possibly two more on the way for 2/02...it should help with run to run consistency WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55 C. 31/1830Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55 C. 01/0730Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z. JWP Very good info to know. This can really help especially since a lot of this will come down to the timing of energy for this weekend. Of course sometimes they do this recon and it doesn't change much so time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This winter is reminding me more and more of 2001-2002. Cold weather was always coming and pattern always looked ready to change in the LR, but it never happened. At least not until a brief change in late Feb.-early March. The big difference in that winter though was the one week of winter weather in early January produced 7" of snow imby ( I think 5" at ATL). With it was weather cold enough to keep snow on the ground for a few days before the blowtorch returned for 2 months. While it is looking more and more likely that a sustained pattern flip will not occur until maybe spring, I would love to see the pattern to temporarily align in a way that would give us enough cold air for a storm to come underneath and produce some snow for us. MBY is used to snowless winters (2003-2007), but I must say the last two years kinda spoiled me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 With the AO so deeply negative it seemed colder weather coming was definitely going to happen until i read where someone recalculated it and instead of mid 4's, it's only low to mid 2's in all acuality. Could this really be the winter without winter? With the modeling trending away from the great look of a few days ago, it appears as if getting a sustained period of winter weather really is like pulling teeth this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 With the AO so deeply negative it seemed colder weather coming was definitely going to happen until i read where someone recalculated it and instead of mid 4's, it's only low to mid 2's in all acuality. Could this really be the winter without winter? With the modeling trending away from the great look of a few days ago, it appears as if getting a sustained period of winter weather really is like pulling teeth this year. A lot of bad news today, with the mis-calculation of the AO and the MJO evidently struggling to get out of phase 7 that could really just put a nail in the coffin for this winter. I hope the models are kind and put us out of our misery quickly instead of giving us false hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 A lot of bad news today, with the mis-calculation of the AO and the MJO evidently struggling to get out of phase 7 that could really just put a nail in the coffin for this winter. I hope the models are kind and put us out of our misery quickly instead of giving us false hope... Don S. did mention about the calculation, but he also did mention about the GFS ensembles forecasting a tanking of the AO mid-month, so if correct, would mean colder weather for about two weeks, then a warm-up in the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Don S. did mention about the calculation, but he also did mention about the GFS ensembles forecasting a tanking of the AO mid-month, so if correct, would mean colder weather for about two weeks, then a warm-up in the end of the month. Yeah, I still thinks look relatively good for a better wintery pattern from about the 8-18th. Maybe not as extreme as the GEFS is showing but hopefully in between the Euro/GEFS. The MJO is very worrisome, that would really help if we can get to phase 8 and push to phase 1 in mid-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS is showing decent CAD in the 130+ hr range. It appears a BL is setting up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS looks horrible past 200 hours. Took our GOM fantasy storm too far south and temps just look lousy transient cold shot followed by warm temps . Let's hope this is simply a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 @ 216, 12z GFS goes off the rails and just looks ridiculous. Surface map not matching upper level maps. Anything past 200 hours is garbage output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 @ 216, 12z GFS goes off the rails and just looks ridiculous. Surface map not matching upper level maps. Anything past 200 hours is garbage output. been the trend in the models the past few days. Mjo forecast looks horrible looks the models will break our hearts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think we can stick a fork in this one guys. we are going to have a storm nearby but the cold is not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think we can stick a fork in this one guys. we are going to have a storm nearby but the cold is not happening. Yep. This will go down as the very top worst Winter ever in my book. It's amazing how the models show a favorable pattern getting closer and closer for several days and then, as if somebody flipped a switch, the go to crap again. It's just not happening this year. The good thing is, next year is unlikely to be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Has everyone reached the acceptance phase of the grieving process yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Has everyone reached the acceptance phase of the grieving process yet? I oscillate between the denial and anger stages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yep. This will go down as the very top worst Winter ever in my book. It's amazing how the models show a favorable pattern getting closer and closer for several days and then, as if somebody flipped a switch, the go to crap again. It's just not happening this year. The good thing is, next year is unlikely to be worse. It really makes you wonder how useful the models are more than 5 days out. I guess they could be showing a pattern, but the flip-flopping makes it very hard to trust them even for that, let along specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It really makes you wonder how useful the models are more than 5 days out. I guess they could be showing a pattern, but the flip-flopping makes it very hard to trust them even for that, let along specifics. The trend is your friend or in this case your enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This forum is hilarious. Why do any of you take anything literally outside of 5 days? I mean, for petes sake, the last several runs of the GFS have had a 1040 high pressure dropping down into the center of the country with no cold air. Does that seem reasonable to anyone? The things I'm noticing are that the models still don't have a clue what's going to happen by the end of this week. They certainly don't know what's going to happen after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think we can stick a fork in this one guys. we are going to have a storm nearby but the cold is not happening. The last two runs have the big gulf low nicely suppressed, which is always a good way to start out in the goofy lr, then bring it north just enough to hammer is all. But, this time it seems to be one of those unusual warm air pressing down from the north suppression things, lol. Oh, well, you can't say this carrot and stick routine leading a whole region over to the cliff isn't entertaining T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well I think the models are showing there will be west ridge and we see a piece of the PV break off and setup shop in eastern Canada, we are not getting the really tall ridge and the PV isn't sagging as far south as we like and blocking doesn't look to set in so cold spells come and go. Still gives us a chance, let's not abandon all hope just yet, even though I want to really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTriadwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think we can stick a fork in this one guys. we are going to have a storm nearby but the cold is not happening. I think its funny how so many people on here just live and die by every single run of the models. Hey, it looks good today, we're gonna get snow for sure. Oh no, it looks bad, winters over. Hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This forum is hilarious. Why do any of you take anything literally outside of 5 days? I mean, for petes sake, the last several runs of the GFS have had a 1040 high pressure dropping down into the center of the country with no cold air. Does that seem reasonable to anyone? The things I'm noticing are that the models still don't have a clue what's going to happen by the end of this week. They certainly don't know what's going to happen after that. At first I thought it was strange that the High did not have any really cold air but the source region is not very cold, so only seeing relatively cool air instead of cold is not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.