Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I can't imagine what these boards would be like if the models lose the tall western ridge or only have it for a few days, that would be so funny.... The Mayan Prophecy will begin in ernest, ala Southeastern style! If we do not have wintry, we will at least (unless we are just that unlucky) see some severe Wx and the drama of a lot of "winter is over" folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 As long as the western ridge grows like Manute Bol, I'm good. That cold (and dense) air will become a tangible thing in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Good news guys... Look at weeks 2 and 3 basically Feb 7th - 19th.. btw these are 2 meter temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS puts 1-2 inches of rain across most on TN and NC thru 6 days. slightly lesser amounts in the lower South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 According the 0z gfs, it's going to be a soggy super bowl Sunday around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Out to 168...I'm worried about our PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS puts 1-2 inches of rain across most on TN and NC thru 6 days. slightly lesser amounts in the lower South. I am sorry but I can careless about Rain in the Winter. This Winter all I hear is everyone saying oh we are getting X amount of inches of rain. Who cares? Honestly, we are snow lovers here this time of the year. Also people need to stop paying attention to the GFS this Winter unless they want to jump off a cliff every week. GFS givith and takith backith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I've seen some weird stuff in the modeling this winter, but this run of the gfs is straight up nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This is a weather board we discuss weather right, whether it be rain sleet or snow? Plenty of people in the South are in a tremendous drought still, so the rain is much needed. I am sorry but I can careless about Rain in the Winter. This Winter all I hear is everyone saying oh we are getting X amount of inches of rain. Who cares? Honestly, we are snow lovers here this time of the year. Also people need to stop paying attention to the GFS this Winter unless they want to jump off a cliff every week. GFS givith and takith backith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Nice 1047 arctic high in the Northern Plains Day 8-9 sending the cold air our way...would be nice for the STJ to get active around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Close but no cigar at 276... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I finally see the freezing temps here at hr 228 on the 0z gfs. It retreats the next panel I haven't seen it again. The good news it still has the 11 day storm there. The bad news it's still 11 days away and not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I finally see the freezing temps here at hr 228 on the 0z gfs. It retreats the next panel I haven't seen it again. The good news it still has the 11 day storm there. The bad news it's still 11 days away and not cold enough. For a high Pressure as strong as modeled it's really odd that it's not colder when we are talking about February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Two flights scheduled, possibly two more on the way for 2/02...it should help with run to run consistency WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55 C. 31/1830Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55 C. 01/0730Z D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z. JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This is a weather board we discuss weather right, whether it be rain sleet or snow? Plenty of people in the South are in a tremendous drought still, so the rain is much needed. Yeah, it looks like I am off to a slow start rain wise this year. Only 1.99 for the month. This time of year I would prefer snow of course, but moisture is moisture and I don't want to go into a hot summer with a deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Nice 1047 arctic high in the Northern Plains Day 8-9 sending the cold air our way...would be nice for the STJ to get active around that time. Not really seeing the cold air w/ the high pressure. Really bizzare looking to have that strong a hp with the -10 line up over Hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This is a weather board we discuss weather right, whether it be rain sleet or snow? Plenty of people in the South are in a tremendous drought still, so the rain is much needed. Your entitled to your opinion. And yes this is a weather board as we discuss weather but it becomes a depressing weather board when ONLY rain topics are brought up in the winter. We should make a link relating to the drought IMO if there is not one already. I do understand that that is a priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Your entitled to your opinion. And yes this is a weather board as we discuss weather but it becomes a depressing weather board when ONLY rain topics are brought up in the winter. We should make a link relating to the drought IMO if there is not one already. I do understand that that is a priority. Lighten up Francis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I knew looking at this run that as soon as 168 with a weaker PNA ridge that we would get a different solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Close but no cigar at 276... Just Cold chasing Rain Same Story different day. I swear it looks like the same GFS every single time (THIS WINTER). Except maybe more moisture nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I knew looking at this run that as soon as 168 with a weaker PNA ridge that we would get a different solution... Yep...same here. The recon sampling should help with that ridge and the rest should follow....hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hope I'm wrong, for sure, and it just isn't a NC ice storm special!! Please... don't act like you're too good for an ice storm... we're all near desperation mode right now for anything winter. X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just Cold chasing Rain Same Story different day. I swear it looks like the same GFS every single time (THIS WINTER). Except maybe more moisture nowadays. I'm going to start following you on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Lighten up Francis. The name's Francis Soyer, but everyone calls me Psycho. Any of you guys call me Francis, and I'll kill you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'm going to start following you on twitter. Awesome writing Follow me on Twitter Works! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Got to say, not that thrilled with the run the western ridge is good, but keeps getting squashed, at the end do the run it try's to build the PV over the pole, lower heights in AK but it try's to fight it off. What I was worried about, still we are 8+ days away. 0zGFS Not good! 12zGFS ideal run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Please... don't act like you're too good for an ice storm... we're all near desperation mode right now for anything winter. X No ice storms please. I can do without trees falling on houses and loss of power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 FYI...the GEFS still looks good, tall west ridge, PV splits like want. The next week or so od model watching to see how this sets up wont be for the faint of heart :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Dang....the Euro must be REALLY awful for no one to even post. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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