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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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I can't imagine what these boards would be like if the models lose the tall western ridge or only have it for a few days, that would be so funny....

The Mayan Prophecy will begin in ernest, ala Southeastern style! If we do not have wintry, we will at least (unless we are just that unlucky) see some severe Wx and the drama of a lot of "winter is over" folks!

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GFS puts 1-2 inches of rain across most on TN and NC thru 6 days. slightly lesser amounts in the lower South.

I am sorry but I can careless about Rain in the Winter. This Winter all I hear is everyone saying oh we are getting X amount of inches of rain. Who cares? Honestly, we are snow lovers here this time of the year. Also people need to stop paying attention to the GFS this Winter unless they want to jump off a cliff every week. GFS givith and takith backith!

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This is a weather board we discuss weather right, whether it be rain sleet or snow? Plenty of people in the South are in a tremendous drought still, so the rain is much needed.

I am sorry but I can careless about Rain in the Winter. This Winter all I hear is everyone saying oh we are getting X amount of inches of rain. Who cares? Honestly, we are snow lovers here this time of the year. Also people need to stop paying attention to the GFS this Winter unless they want to jump off a cliff every week. GFS givith and takith backith!

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I finally see the freezing temps here at hr 228 on the 0z gfs. It retreats the next panel I haven't seen it again. The good news it still has the 11 day storm there. The bad news it's still 11 days away and not cold enough.

For a high Pressure as strong as modeled it's really odd that it's not colder when we are talking about February.

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Two flights scheduled, possibly two more on the way for 2/02...it should help with run to run consistency

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012

WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z

B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55

C. 31/1830Z

D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49

A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z

B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55

C. 01/0730Z

D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK

E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:

A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR

P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z.

B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR

P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z.

JWP

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This is a weather board we discuss weather right, whether it be rain sleet or snow? Plenty of people in the South are in a tremendous drought still, so the rain is much needed.

Yeah, it looks like I am off to a slow start rain wise this year. Only 1.99 for the month. This time of year I would prefer snow of course, but moisture is moisture and I don't want to go into a hot summer with a deficit.

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Nice 1047 arctic high in the Northern Plains Day 8-9 sending the cold air our way...would be nice for the STJ to get active around that time.

Not really seeing the cold air w/ the high pressure. Really bizzare looking to have that strong a hp with the -10 line up over Hudson bay

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This is a weather board we discuss weather right, whether it be rain sleet or snow? Plenty of people in the South are in a tremendous drought still, so the rain is much needed.

Your entitled to your opinion. And yes this is a weather board as we discuss weather but it becomes a depressing weather board when ONLY rain topics are brought up in the winter. We should make a link relating to the drought IMO if there is not one already. I do understand that that is a priority.

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Your entitled to your opinion. And yes this is a weather board as we discuss weather but it becomes a depressing weather board when ONLY rain topics are brought up in the winter. We should make a link relating to the drought IMO if there is not one already. I do understand that that is a priority.

Lighten up Francis.

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I knew looking at this run that as soon as 168 with a weaker PNA ridge that we would get a different solution...

Yep...same here. The recon sampling should help with that ridge and the rest should follow....hopefully.

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Got to say, not that thrilled with the run the western ridge is good, but keeps getting squashed, at the end do the run it try's to build the PV over the pole, lower heights in AK but it try's to fight it off. What I was worried about, still we are 8+ days away.

0zGFS Not good!

00zgfs500mbHGHTNH288.gif

12zGFS ideal run

12zgfs500mbHGHTNH300.gif

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