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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Yuck...we have to pray the GFS can score the coup...it's got to at some point right?

Not that I post much. But here in Miami area. They're not mentioning any cool down yet. Would be nice. It's been to warm this winter down here.

Late in the week...both GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a middle level low cutting

off over The Rockies...with a building ridge across the southeast

United States. This will lead to above normal temperatures with

just a slight chance of showers. This warm weather pattern of

this winter shows no signs of breaking down.

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Just for fun--- The Farmer's Almanac just posted this on Facebook for the Southeast... (TN and NC are the Northern border, TN and MS the Western border)

January 2012

28th-31st. Showers from the Gulf Coast north.

February 2012

1st-3rd. Few showers, then fair.

4th-7th. Mild days, cool nights.

8th-11th. Wet snow Tennessee, western North Carolina; wintry mix northern Mississippi, Alabama. Elsewhere, rain, then clearing.

12th-15th. Wet weather, then fair skies, milder.

16th-19th. Unsettled.

20th-23rd. Wet snow Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, then fair. Elsewhere, windy/rainy, then clearing.

24th-29th. Showery, then fair, milder.

March 2012

1st-3rd. Fair, pleasantly mild.

4th-7th. Stormy, then return to fair weather.

8th-11th. Showery along Gulf Coast; fair elsewhere.

12th-15th. Mainly clear, quite mild.

16th-19th. Some rain, mainly southern, central Florida.

20th-23rd. Fair.

24th-27th. Showers, then fair, quite mild.

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Just for fun--- The Farmer's Almanac just posted this on Facebook for the Southeast... (TN and NC are the Northern border, TN and MS the Western border)

January 2012

28th-31st. Showers from the Gulf Coast north.

February 2012

1st-3rd. Few showers, then fair.

4th-7th. Mild days, cool nights.

8th-11th. Wet snow Tennessee, western North Carolina; wintry mix northern Mississippi, Alabama. Elsewhere, rain, then clearing.

12th-15th. Wet weather, then fair skies, milder.

16th-19th. Unsettled.

20th-23rd. Wet snow Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, then fair. Elsewhere, windy/rainy, then clearing.

24th-29th. Showery, then fair, milder.

March 2012

1st-3rd. Fair, pleasantly mild.

4th-7th. Stormy, then return to fair weather.

8th-11th. Showery along Gulf Coast; fair elsewhere.

12th-15th. Mainly clear, quite mild.

16th-19th. Some rain, mainly southern, central Florida.

20th-23rd. Fair.

24th-27th. Showers, then fair, quite mild.

Well, might as well roll the dice and say that these are not so far off from the current op models. I'd be shocked if it actually verified. But who knows.

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Ugh...the 18Z GFS sucks for everyone in the south!!! BIG TIME BLIZZARD FOR NEBRASKA!!!

I don't agree but to each their own. The GFS looks to bring me a substantial amount of rain. On top of that the two big players are still on the field for our 2/10 threat. We still have a Low running along the GoM then up the coast and also a nice big HP pressing down from Canada. Don't take the GFS at face value that far out. Look at the players and hope they eventually line up in a favorable position come the 10th. I'm becoming more convinced we will see a system with some cold nearby around that time frame. Again, if those two features keep popping up around the 10th, I'm satisfied with that for now.

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I don't agree but to each their own. The GFS looks to bring me a substantial amount of rain. On top of that the two big players are still on the field for our 2/10 threat. We still have a Low running along the GoM then up the coast and also a nice big HP pressing down from Canada. Don't take the GFS at face value that far out. Look at the players and hope they eventually line up in a favorable position come the 10th. I'm becoming more convinced we will see a system with some cold nearby around that time frame. Again, if those two features keep popping up around the 10th, I'm satisfied with that for now.

Agreed, it's nice to see the storm is still there, all the other details have plenty of time to be ironed out.

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Probably because no other models go out past 240 hours. Hard to have support for something that's not going to show up on the CMC, JMA, Ukmet, or the Euro's last frame. So I guess you mean the Euro's last couple frames don't support it.

lol I should have said it has no ensemble support. Didn't mean anyone models sorry. Op gfs is in lala land according to the ensembles. But we all know they will all change
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I don't agree but to each their own. The GFS looks to bring me a substantial amount of rain. On top of that the two big players are still on the field for our 2/10 threat. We still have a Low running along the GoM then up the coast and also a nice big HP pressing down from Canada. Don't take the GFS at face value that far out. Look at the players and hope they eventually line up in a favorable position come the 10th. I'm becoming more convinced we will see a system with some cold nearby around that time frame. Again, if those two features keep popping up around the 10th, I'm satisfied with that for now.

Ditto on the rain!! I am going to be watching with interest how the gfs will verify with the mid week rain.

My hunch is the weekend storm brings down the cold, and it is Valentines when we might get the big Miller A we want so bad, and goofy has been teasing us with for a while now on it's la la lr weather porn channel. It looks like the pattern wants to change, but it will take a big storm to drag the cold into a new regime, because it looks like the cold air will be dragging it's heels, and kicking, and screaming, lol, and the next storm after will be the good one. It so often takes a big storm to bring on a good storm. T

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Ditto on the rain!! I am going to be watching with interest how the gfs will verify with the mid week rain.

My hunch is the weekend storm brings down the cold, and it is Valentines when we might get the big Miller A we want so bad, and goofy has been teasing us with for a while now on it's la la lr weather porn channel. It looks like the pattern wants to change, but it will take a big storm to drag the cold into a new regime, because it looks like the cold air will be dragging it's heels, and kicking, and screaming, lol, and the next storm after will be the good one. It so often takes a big storm to bring on a good storm. T

Hey T, I'm taking my chips and going all in with this one. It's now or never right? You can get all the sleet you want and I'll be happy with my foot of snow in the back yard :bike: . Hopefully 00z keeps it and amplifies it! :weenie:

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Wich GaWX was here to give us his insight on the weeklies but from the Philly thread (see below)...looks like from about the Feb 10-20th (week 2 and 3) we have a good pattern and then week 4 we have a -PNA and -NAO, interesting to see if that could produce.

Wow. Holy -NAO block on the weeklies. Holds strong from Week 2 through Week 4. I don't have the temp anomalies, only H5 this week, but would be a much more conducive pattern if it verifies. Standby until Thursday to see if this is hiccup or not.

Week 2 is a +PNA with an east based -NAO, Week 3 is a -EPO/-NAO, and Week 4 is -PNA/-NAO

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Wich GaWX was here to give us his insight on the weeklies but from the Philly thread (see below)...looks like from about the Feb 10-20th (week 2 and 3) we have a good pattern and then week 4 we have a -PNA and -NAO, interesting to see if that could produce.

Wow. Holy -NAO block on the weeklies. Holds strong from Week 2 through Week 4. I don't have the temp anomalies, only H5 this week, but would be a much more conducive pattern if it verifies. Standby until Thursday to see if this is hiccup or not.

Week 2 is a +PNA with an east based -NAO, Week 3 is a -EPO/-NAO, and Week 4 is -PNA/-NAO

Well that's def. a good sign for sure. Hopefully as that poster said it's not just a hiccup...because if it's not then game on! Could be that the GFS is sniffing something out the past few runs.

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Ditto on the rain!! I am going to be watching with interest how the gfs will verify with the mid week rain.

My hunch is the weekend storm brings down the cold, and it is Valentines when we might get the big Miller A we want so bad, and goofy has been teasing us with for a while now on it's la la lr weather porn channel. It looks like the pattern wants to change, but it will take a big storm to drag the cold into a new regime, because it looks like the cold air will be dragging it's heels, and kicking, and screaming, lol, and the next storm after will be the good one. It so often takes a big storm to bring on a good storm. T

I'm watching the same channel :wub:

Hey T, I'm taking my chips and going all in with this one. It's now or never right? You can get all the sleet you want and I'll be happy with my foot of snow in the back yard :bike: . Hopefully 00z keeps it and amplifies it! :weenie:

I would be very happy with what the 12z goofy was showing :lol:

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Hey T, I'm taking my chips and going all in with this one. It's now or never right? You can get all the sleet you want and I'll be happy with my foot of snow in the back yard :bike: . Hopefully 00z keeps it and amplifies it! :weenie:

Oh, I think you guys could get something, no worries, but the wide spread look just isn't there to me yet. Hope I'm wrong, for sure, and it just isn't a NC ice storm special!! I'd just like more clarity a week out of more suppression. And I can't help but believe you guys will get a storm down on you with a side swipe, before we get one to share with you with a head on.

But I'm thinking if this time the switch is actually on, then the chances should just keep coming. I've seen good March's before, and not just the bliz! I'm betting on a real good 6 weeks. That blast goofy was showing with the 1060 highs slamming in the cold was just the sign I was looking for. An actual insane goofy special...the kind we always have with goofy, and haven't had at all this year. If we can get that change finally, then the chances might just keep rolling in.

In any case I never give up until the Masters, and the last commercial I saw intimated that it was still held in April. So, Burgerman, hold some chips out, just in case :) Tony

I'm watching the same channel :wub:

Darlin', my other big looked for tell in this game of weather poker will be rain on Michelle :) If you get hammered with the drops next weekend then I'll believe! I'll have had me a vision!! Tony

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Weeklies for the win!! But seriously guys, something is changing. Look at it this way, it took several months to begin FINALLY showing fantasy storms. When I calculate the appropriate lag time, we should have winter storms on our doorstep in 10 to 11 days.

OOPS, i meant months. Sorry guys.

:lmao: I lol'd

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It is probably the "wish cast" in me, but I have this feeling that we will have a good run at the Med/LR for wintry potential. Flame away...I am a glass half full kind of guy! :)

Well the good news is we will know in 2 weeks whether this pattern is going to produce or whether winter is over. If the pattern caves around the 20th as models are showing then winter will be over for the SE.

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Well the good news is we will know in 2 weeks whether this pattern is going to produce or whether winter is over. If the pattern caves around the 20th as models are showing then winter will be over for the SE.

I agree in some aspects. I at least will have the bungee cord attached and waiting for a nice, sunny 72 degree day to cliff dive! ;)

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