Srain Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ensembles don't lie. The GFS is quite warmer than the OP as Cheez has alluded to. One storm this year was definitely picked up great and that was the first snow for the NE in October. When that happened, everyone flipped their forecasts around. Ultimately, it was a fluke. Esembles, ensembles, ensembles. Not true. The January 25th event in the Plains was well modeled for two week via the op and ensembles. Just because the guidance doesn't forecast snow doesn't mean they are false... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not true. The January 25th event in the Plains was well modeled for two week via the op and ensembles. Just because the guidance doesn't forecast snow doesn't mean they are false... I was referencing his post about the 10 day out + thing. I understand your point also though and they have been wonderful with other weather events. It's hard for the SE to get a good snow, things have to be just right especially down into the Carolinas and FL so how can we even expect the models to be very accurate around here 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Details will follow... it's all about the pattern and the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 12z GEFS isn't as extreme as the OP, I wouldn't expect it to be, but it is cold, it has the western ridge, the -EPO, the cold coming down from eastern Canada, although not as extreme and it has a storm on day 11.... Edit: I am not saying the storm is going to happen, we just have to wait and see, but there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS ensembles coming in and- no real surprise- the op GFS in the fantasy range is a huge cold outlier plus there was no sign of this big high/trough coming that far south on last night's Euro/Euro ensembles. Fun to look at and dream, but almost certainly aint gonna happen. Here are the ensemble members for the CMC and GFS for the 10-15 day rage. It looks pretty cold to me, but then again it's only one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 12z GEFS isn't as extreme as the OP, I wouldn't expect it to be, but it is cold, it has the western ridge, the -EPO, the cold coming down from eastern Canada, although not as extreme and it has a storm on day 11.... Edit: I am not saying the storm is going to happen, we just have to wait and see, but there is a chance. what is the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Here are the ensemble members for the CMC and GFS for the 10-15 day rage. It looks pretty cold to me, but then again it's only one model run. I agree. I do think we're going into a colder pattern but the models can not be trusted for the details.....So basically (my focus is:) is there a western ridge and eastern trough being depicted on the majority of the models? If so we're doing good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 what is the gefs gfs ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 After looking at this some more, the one thing I don't like on the GEFS is the trough is further east than the OP, we would need the trough further west like the OP, so we will see what happens. The GEFS is very similar to the Euro ENS. Lots to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Anyone else think the Euro looks like it's on crack? Just looks plain odd at around 144 - 156. It has a ULL forming (or what looks like one) in the pan handle of Tx and 850's doing a huge dip just west of the Apps but east of the plains with sfc temps high across pretty much the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 This run of the Euro has a very strange look to me....a met can better explain. @168 the ULL is gone and a cold front is starting to move through which looks to push the rain out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro does not look that odd to me, goes along with the general scenario of a big ridge in the western part of NOAM with a closed low that formes in the NM/CO area which becomes inceasingly positive tilt with time. Then another short wave crests the ridge and dives south bringing cold weather to the SE, just probably not as cold and as far west as the Op GFS. Also, looks pretty wet here over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Anyone else think the Euro looks like it's on crack? Just looks plain odd at around 144 - 156. It has a ULL forming (or what looks like one) in the pan handle of Tx and 850's doing a huge dip just west of the Apps but east of the plains with sfc temps high across pretty much the entire country. I'm sure whatever depiction shows no snow here, no matter how strange, will turn out to be the correct one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The only thing that looks weird to me is that there isn't a surface low down around mobile. It seems like with that phase occurring, there would be precip in the cold sector in the mid south, and a surface low about to head ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro does not look that odd to me, goes along with the general scenario of a big ridge in the western part of NOAM with a closed low that formes in the NM/CO area which becomes inceasingly positive tilt with time. Then another short wave crests the ridge and dives south bringing cold weather to the SE, just probably not as cold and as far west as the Op GFS. Also, looks pretty wet here over the weekend. Well I guess just the shape of the 850 line is why it looked odd to me. Just not used to seeing that...which is obviously why we need a MET around to correct me . Euro does show a clipper like system coming down with snow showers for NC...but alas you know how those go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well I guess just the shape of the 850 line is why it looked odd to me. Just not used to seeing that...which is obviously why we need a MET around to correct me . Euro does show a clipper like system coming down with snow showers for NC...but alas you know how those goe. nothing in the long range aka next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well if you were hoping for the Euro to look like the GFS in the LR...it doesn't so far. Just some "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 nothing in the long range aka next week? It has a transient cold shot then at 240 it finally looks like colder air is working it's way down. Not a run most will like unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I don't think you get a 1050 high over Nebraska and Kansas and not have cold air get this far south especially with a low sitting to our east. Of course, that's 276 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fairly big difference for GFS OP versus Euro. Cheez was right, we should forget the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well if you were hoping for the Euro to look like the GFS in the LR...it doesn't so far. Just some "meh". Considering we dont' have access to anything past 240 on the Euro, we can't know if it looks like the GFS at all. Like you said, it looks like the cold air is on the move... may just be a bit slower than the GFS. Not that it really matters anyway. Whether its a warm up or a snow storm, very little that's shown up beyond 168 has looked in any way similar once it gets inside 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It has a transient cold shot then at 240 it finally looks like colder air is working it's way down. Not a run most will like unfortunately. Is there not any precip being thrown back into the cold sector between 168 and 192? Certainly looks like a surface low pops in the SE inbetween frames, and looks like there should be snow in coastal NC and VA at 192. But with the ewall maps, its hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Don't think the Doc. believes it is seemly to have an invasion of 1060 highs. That's a gfs thing But...if ever the Doc, and Goofy both show an invasion of 1060 highs, it might be time to pull out the Mammoth fur long johns, lol. My speculaton is we will be looking at a Valentines Day storm. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Goofy takes away all my rain again as the days get closer but this time it does give me a fantasy zr to ip to sn storm wayyyyy out in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Goofy takes away all my rain again as the days get closer but this time it does give me a fantasy zr to ip to sn storm wayyyyy out in the long range That's why they call it the GooFuS! It will probably bring your rain back at the last minute and we'll end up with a flizzard when we were supposed to get a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Is there not any precip being thrown back into the cold sector between 168 and 192? Certainly looks like a surface low pops in the SE inbetween frames, and looks like there should be snow in coastal NC and VA at 192. But with the ewall maps, its hard to tell. There is a low that pops but it stays off the coast. Then the clipper energy never quite links up fully. It does appear at 192 there would be light snow showers for that section of the coast for NC and VA but again this would be from that energy diving in from the north and not the low throwing moisture back... on a second look the moisture is being thrown back for a good period of time but it's just so light it's hard to tell if it would be anything more than a flizzard..or that's how it appears to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ensembles don't lie. The GFS is quite warmer than the OP as Cheez has alluded to. One storm this year was definitely picked up great and that was the first snow for the NE in October. When that happened, everyone flipped their forecasts around. Ultimately, it was a fluke. Esembles, ensembles, ensembles. I meant my comment to be sarcastic lol. Besides even the ensembles have been all over the place. Don't follow NE so can't speak to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Some more optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Trends are not good on the Euro Ensembles, the west ridge is getting pushed down and east which swings are trough more east :-(.... 0z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Trends are not good on the Euro Ensembles, the west ridge is getting pushed down and east which swings are trough more east :-(.... 0z run.... Yuck...we have to pray the GFS can score the coup...it's got to at some point right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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