burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fantasy blizzard incoming at day 11...1060 high lol it would be storm of the century for us. Starts snowing on Friday and doesn't end until Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hits GaWx's target date It certainly gets you a little excited. For run after run it's been hinting at this in the LR....curious to see how the Euro looks at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Very interesting times ahead in the 2/10 period. GFS keeps showing a very similar solution with LP running coast. What a monster HP! (1060). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 We can dream can't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It certainly gets you a little excited. For run after run it's been hinting at this in the LR....curious to see how the Euro looks at 240. Well if the western ridge setups up like the models are showing, if a piece of the PV breaks off and sets up shop in south/eastern Canada and if we get some energy to come from the west like it's showing, we will have a great shot at a winter event. Lot's of if's though...if the western ridge is not as stout or the PV that comes into SE Canada doesn't come as far south as show than we are out of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If we get a High that strong in that place with a Low in the place it's shown many more will see snow out of this. I'm looking at the players and not the exact depiction. I just want to see those players stay on the scene, the smaller details can be worked out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Even at day 16, the western ridge is still there and the PV in eastern Canada is still there. Let's hope that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 One thing to keep an eye on will be the HP situated over the GL, to see if it moves into a favorable position and strength. At hr 126 it is a 1032 down to 1028 over the favored CAD regions in the Carolinas. I know that models have a tough time picking this up this far out. With the patten change taking place, it will be tough for the models to key in on a bonafide solution. Regardless...next week may be our chance at some wintry wx. I am wishing all here in the SE regions good luck! not liking the high pressure at 1032 or 1028 - i would really like to see it stronger to get good wedging action in here. what i would give for a 1040 high lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Guys, keep in mind there is bitter cold up toward Alaska, if things get favorable and we get a push our way.... watch out! A big high is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Finally, the models give us a big fantasy storm to track. Good to see all the needed players on the field for once. HP & LP positions obviously will change. But the fact that it's there in 10 days and a similar scenario has shown up on past runs is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Guys, keep in mind there is bitter cold up toward Alaska, if things get favorable and we get a push our way.... watch out! A big high is not out of the question. its not out of the question (and i would love a 1060, i dont know that i have seen that here lol) - but we are just about in feb. and so far every time we get to the approximate date where the cold was to be here, its still 7-10 days or more out. my confidence in the models is non existant now and until i see the cold IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The models have and continue to be quite consistent with the nicely placed, and tall western ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yet another Day 10+ threat. The mirages keep appearing and we all keep drinking sand ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Finally, the models give us a big fantasy storm to track. Good to see all the needed players on the field for once. HP & LP positions obviously will change. But the fact that it's there in 10 days and a similar scenario has shown up on past runs is promising. Yet, we're not supposed to believe the models after day 5. It's just not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Let me print this out so you'll have something to eat later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fantasy blizzard incoming at day 11...1060 high Almost two weeks away and looks like the really good stuff is north and west of us anyway. We're going to need one huge storm or a few good ones to make up for this craptastic winter. I'd rather it just stay warm and dry now if all we're going to get is an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Two weeks away and looks like the really good stuff is north and west of us anyway. We're going to need one huge storm or a few good ones to make up for this craptastic winter. I'd rather it just stay warm and dry now if all we're going to get is an inch or two. That's just flat out heresy, Brick!! We would all gladly give a left arm (and maybe a right too) for any amount of snow on the ground. Two inches is an infinitely times greater amount of snow than I have seen so far this winter. Bring it on! Who wants warm and dry in February and March? Ugh!! Edit: This may be cause for revocation of your weenie card. How do you expect to win weenie of the year if you can't get excited over two inches of snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That's the talking. Just wait until we get and we'll see who has the last ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS ensembles coming in and- no real surprise- the op GFS in the fantasy range is a huge cold outlier plus there was no sign of this big high/trough coming that far south on last night's Euro/Euro ensembles. Fun to look at and dream, but almost certainly aint gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS ensembles coming in and- no real surprise- the op GFS in the fantasy range is a huge cold outlier plus there was no sign of this big high/trough coming that far south on last night's Euro/Euro ensembles. Fun to look at and dream, but almost certainly aint gonna happen. Seriously?? Couldn't you just let us relish in the moment for a few minutes?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z GFS Ensemble Mean does however have GaWx's 2/10 storm tracking across the gulf and off the SE coast...00z/06z/12z pretty much identical with this on the Ens Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Cheez rolls the truth!! Seriously?? Couldn't you just let us relish in the moment for a few minutes?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That's just flat out heresy, Brick!! We would all gladly give a left arm (and maybe a right too) for any amount of snow on the ground. Two inches is an infinitely times greater amount of snow than I have seen so far this winter. Bring it on! Who wants warm and dry in February and March? Ugh!! Edit: This may be cause for revocation of your weenie card. How do you expect to win weenie of the year if you can't get excited over two inches of snowfall? What's the point now? The whole winter has sucked, so it might as well be nice and warm so we can enjoy being outside. A couple of inches of snow is only going to aggravate me now. If it's going to finally snow, it better be one snow more than 6 inches or a few snows of 3 inches or more. Not some tiny tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What's the point now? The whole winter has sucked, so it might as well be nice and warm so we can enjoy being outside. A couple of inches of snow is only going to aggravate me now. If it's going to finally snow, it better be one snow more than 6 inches or a few snows of 3 inches or more. Not some tiny tease. man ....you are a hard sell. Hell ill take two inches of snow right now. Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What's the point now? The whole winter has sucked, so it might as well be nice and warm so we can enjoy being outside. A couple of inches of snow is only going to aggravate me now. If it's going to finally snow, it better be one snow more than 6 inches or a few snows of 3 inches or more. Not some tiny tease. Ji is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 its not out of the question (and i would love a 1060, i dont know that i have seen that here lol) - but we are just about in feb. and so far every time we get to the approximate date where the cold was to be here, its still 7-10 days or more out. my confidence in the models is non existant now and until i see the cold IMBY this, somebody message me Sunday and tell me to start paying attention if the 2/10 fantasy is still around, until then, it short sleeves and flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 6 - 10 of 15 days | All 15 Days < Previous 5 days Next 5 days > Previous 5 Days Next 5 Days Saturday Feb 4Partly cloudy and frigid -25°Lo -26° Sunday Feb 5Partly cloudy and not as cold -10°Lo -18° more Monday Feb 6Partly cloudy -7°Lo -8° more Tuesday Feb 7High clouds and windy 3°Lo -8° more Wednesday Feb 8Periods of snow 4°Lo -12° more Looks like Alaska is warmingup just a little .Hard to call 4 dagrees warm but when it's been 20 30 and 40 below I guess it seem like a warm up.Is this a good thing as far as cold coming our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z GFS Ensemble Mean does however have GaWx's 2/10 storm tracking across the gulf and off the SE coast...00z/06z/12z pretty much identical with this on the Ens Mean sure it does, the typically reliable GFS is showing another storm, wait for it . . . over 10 days out lol. if this pattern continues through mid feb. or so i will probably be ready to bite the bullet and give up on winter wx this year. sure it may happen but i see nothing at all to give any real hope (yes the gfs shows something in 12 days. what i mean is MULTIPLE models showing something....and that something doesnt disappear after a few runs but keeps showing up and reaches the NAM territory. i dont think any supposed storm this year has been within the nam's usual range. pathetic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yet another Day 10+ threat. The mirages keep appearing and we all keep drinking sand ..... Seriously. It's nice to actually have a 10 day fantasy to look at this winter for a change, but I have seen this movie before and know how it ends. And it's only one model, too. I don't see anything signaling a break in the current pattern of being warm and dry, rain, cool down a couple of days, and then get warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 sure it does, the typically reliable GFS is showing another storm, wait for it . . . over 10 days out lol. if this pattern continues through mid feb. or so i will probably be ready to bite the bullet and give up on winter wx this year. sure it may happen but i see nothing at all to give any real hope (yes the gfs shows something in 12 days. what i mean is MULTIPLE models showing something....and that something doesnt disappear after a few runs but keeps showing up and reaches the NAM territory. i dont think any supposed storm this year has been within the nam's usual range. pathetic lol Ensembles don't lie. The GFS is quite warmer than the OP as Cheez has alluded to. One storm this year was definitely picked up great and that was the first snow for the NE in October. When that happened, everyone flipped their forecasts around. Ultimately, it was a fluke. Esembles, ensembles, ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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