Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

Recommended Posts

same old same old wait another ten days, we've heard this since Dec. boy just one good storm and I think everyone would be satisfied, imagine if we were to slip in two storms before spring. we had better hurry though even to get just one, another ten days and another ten days; we're going to run out of ten days eventually

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

somewhat promising

06zgfsnao.gif

Most models have been consistently trending negative with the nao. What I don't understand is that the solutions we're getting aren't really consistent with a pna ridge and a negative nao.

Really, the last 4 runs of the GFS have been completely different from the last with the handling of the system this weekend. The latest 6z run takes the cake, not even a lakes cutter, but a plains cutter. How that happens with the pna ridge plus a greenland block, is beyond me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most models have been consistently trending negative with the nao. What I don't understand is that the solutions we're getting aren't really consistent with a pna ridge and a negative nao.

Really, the last 4 runs of the GFS have been completely different from the last with the handling of the system this weekend. The latest 6z run takes the cake, not even a lakes cutter, but a plains cutter. How that happens with the pna ridge plus a greenland block, is beyond me.

I'm not an expert, but I believe you would see the effects of a -NAO after it establishes(a suppressed flow), like the GFS is showing with a potential storm the following week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

During a pattern change they are going to look a little wonky as they start to see things that are outside the "normal" of what's been going on. Not enough data for them to get serious and consistent, so they'll cycle from one extreme to the other. The amplitude of the inconsistencies will get small and smaller with time as things take shape. But what we're seeing with a large -AO and even a slightly negative NAO bode well for the future. Big dips in the AO like this almost always bring something to the south. The graphs I've run almost always show the NAO following the AO to some extent and I personally like what I see.

Almost all the models are showing the MJO moving into Phase 8 and then possibly into 1 and 2. MJO forecast aren't very good much past a week so that will be something to watch. http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast.php

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember that during pattern changes that the models will have wild swings from one run to the other. There is some great discussion on the main thread that talks about these wild model to model run. Lets just keep reeling in this weekend as we get closer. Also remember to look at the overall pattern not just one storm. Just some thoughts. Hang in there guys and ladies!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

During a pattern change they are going to look a little wonky as they start to see things that are outside the "normal" of what's been going on. Not enough data for them to get serious and consistent, so they'll cycle from one extreme to the other. The amplitude of the inconsistencies will get small and smaller with time as things take shape. But what we're seeing with a large -AO and even a slightly negative NAO bode well for the future. Big dips in the AO like this almost always bring something to the south. The graphs I've run almost always show the NAO following the AO to some extent and I personally like what I see.

Almost all the models are showing the MJO moving into Phase 8 and then possibly into 1 and 2. MJO forecast aren't very good much past a week so that will be something to watch. http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php

Thanks Steve for elaborating on what i had just posted right after you! Don S was saying that the AO has dipped to it's lowest point since last December so like you said in the big picture things do look a lot better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most models have been consistently trending negative with the nao. What I don't understand is that the solutions we're getting aren't really consistent with a pna ridge and a negative nao.

Really, the last 4 runs of the GFS have been completely different from the last with the handling of the system this weekend. The latest 6z run takes the cake, not even a lakes cutter, but a plains cutter. How that happens with the pna ridge plus a greenland block, is beyond me.

Honestly it wouldn't be shocking for the GFS and Euro to come back to a more wintery solution for this weekend for parts of I-40 and north just IMHO. The fact that pretty much each run is something different says a lot. But it could also just go dry. Everything is on the table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But what we're seeing with a large -AO and even a slightly negative NAO bode well for the future. Big dips in the AO like this almost always bring something to the south. The graphs I've run almost always show the NAO following the AO to some extent and I personally like what I see.

No doubt we've had an impressive 3 day run of the AO

Jan 28: -3.2

Jan 29: -4.4

Jan 30: -4.5

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DT tweeted this morning that the pattern could be changing for North America. He also briefly talks about what could happen in to next week. Very brief though. http://www.wxrisk.com/

It was brief because he's been constantly saying the opposite, "no pattern change" for Feb. Once the GFS showed promise he dismissed it because he HATES the gfs and things the model is "BS". The Euro consistently showed another solution, PV staying place, no change, etc. Then, once the Euro changed, he starts to get on board. I wonder which side he's on this morning?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12zGFS sure is ugly, have a vort up in central Canada, another in US midsection, another one coming from Alaska, big SE ridge, west ridge is getting squashed. Cold is getting bottled up, don't like this.

Only good thing about this run in the medium range will be if the cold front sweeps through and sets up shop and that energy in TX gets going....but that is very much as wishcast at this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In a word, 12z gfs is U G L Y so far.... haha

One thing to keep an eye on will be the HP situated over the GL, to see if it moves into a favorable position and strength. At hr 126 it is a 1032 down to 1028 over the favored CAD regions in the Carolinas. I know that models have a tough time picking this up this far out. With the patten change taking place, it will be tough for the models to key in on a bonafide solution. Regardless...next week may be our chance at some wintry wx. I am wishing all here in the SE regions good luck!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing to keep an eye on will be the HP situated over the GL, to see if it moves into a favorable position and strength. At hr 126 it is a 1032 down to 1028 over the favored CAD regions in the Carolinas. I know that models have a tough time picking this up this far out. With the patten change taking place, it will be tough for the models to key in on a bonafide solution. Regardless...next week may be our chance at some wintry wx. I am wishing all here in the SE regions good luck!

airplane_movie.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...