Tacoma Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 same old same old wait another ten days, we've heard this since Dec. boy just one good storm and I think everyone would be satisfied, imagine if we were to slip in two storms before spring. we had better hurry though even to get just one, another ten days and another ten days; we're going to run out of ten days eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 somewhat promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 somewhat promising Most models have been consistently trending negative with the nao. What I don't understand is that the solutions we're getting aren't really consistent with a pna ridge and a negative nao. Really, the last 4 runs of the GFS have been completely different from the last with the handling of the system this weekend. The latest 6z run takes the cake, not even a lakes cutter, but a plains cutter. How that happens with the pna ridge plus a greenland block, is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Most models have been consistently trending negative with the nao. What I don't understand is that the solutions we're getting aren't really consistent with a pna ridge and a negative nao. Really, the last 4 runs of the GFS have been completely different from the last with the handling of the system this weekend. The latest 6z run takes the cake, not even a lakes cutter, but a plains cutter. How that happens with the pna ridge plus a greenland block, is beyond me. I'm not an expert, but I believe you would see the effects of a -NAO after it establishes(a suppressed flow), like the GFS is showing with a potential storm the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 During a pattern change they are going to look a little wonky as they start to see things that are outside the "normal" of what's been going on. Not enough data for them to get serious and consistent, so they'll cycle from one extreme to the other. The amplitude of the inconsistencies will get small and smaller with time as things take shape. But what we're seeing with a large -AO and even a slightly negative NAO bode well for the future. Big dips in the AO like this almost always bring something to the south. The graphs I've run almost always show the NAO following the AO to some extent and I personally like what I see. Almost all the models are showing the MJO moving into Phase 8 and then possibly into 1 and 2. MJO forecast aren't very good much past a week so that will be something to watch. http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Remember that during pattern changes that the models will have wild swings from one run to the other. There is some great discussion on the main thread that talks about these wild model to model run. Lets just keep reeling in this weekend as we get closer. Also remember to look at the overall pattern not just one storm. Just some thoughts. Hang in there guys and ladies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 During a pattern change they are going to look a little wonky as they start to see things that are outside the "normal" of what's been going on. Not enough data for them to get serious and consistent, so they'll cycle from one extreme to the other. The amplitude of the inconsistencies will get small and smaller with time as things take shape. But what we're seeing with a large -AO and even a slightly negative NAO bode well for the future. Big dips in the AO like this almost always bring something to the south. The graphs I've run almost always show the NAO following the AO to some extent and I personally like what I see. Almost all the models are showing the MJO moving into Phase 8 and then possibly into 1 and 2. MJO forecast aren't very good much past a week so that will be something to watch. http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php Thanks Steve for elaborating on what i had just posted right after you! Don S was saying that the AO has dipped to it's lowest point since last December so like you said in the big picture things do look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Most models have been consistently trending negative with the nao. What I don't understand is that the solutions we're getting aren't really consistent with a pna ridge and a negative nao. Really, the last 4 runs of the GFS have been completely different from the last with the handling of the system this weekend. The latest 6z run takes the cake, not even a lakes cutter, but a plains cutter. How that happens with the pna ridge plus a greenland block, is beyond me. Honestly it wouldn't be shocking for the GFS and Euro to come back to a more wintery solution for this weekend for parts of I-40 and north just IMHO. The fact that pretty much each run is something different says a lot. But it could also just go dry. Everything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 But what we're seeing with a large -AO and even a slightly negative NAO bode well for the future. Big dips in the AO like this almost always bring something to the south. The graphs I've run almost always show the NAO following the AO to some extent and I personally like what I see. No doubt we've had an impressive 3 day run of the AO Jan 28: -3.2 Jan 29: -4.4 Jan 30: -4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 At least down south, there always seems to be a lag in the AO/NAO before we see something. It seems up north the lag is not as apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ft Yukon Alaska... -61.6F the last 24 hours. There is cold air on our side of the world. http://www.daculaweather.com/world_extremes.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yeah, but that's Alaska! Hasn't that been the problem all along? Alaska has the cold and won't let go, lol. At least the goofy lr has cold, suppression, and the gulf all in the same general time frame. That gives me hope. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameronfry Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 DT tweeted this morning that the pattern could be changing for North America. He also briefly talks about what could happen in to next week. Very brief though. http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 DT tweeted this morning that the pattern could be changing for North America. He also briefly talks about what could happen in to next week. Very brief though. http://www.wxrisk.com/ It was brief because he's been constantly saying the opposite, "no pattern change" for Feb. Once the GFS showed promise he dismissed it because he HATES the gfs and things the model is "BS". The Euro consistently showed another solution, PV staying place, no change, etc. Then, once the Euro changed, he starts to get on board. I wonder which side he's on this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 In a word, 12z gfs is U G L Y so far.... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 In a word, 12z gfs is U G L Y so far.... haha Congrats to Nebraska on their comma head blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 In a word, 12z gfs is U G L Y so far.... haha Yep looks very close to 6z for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 12zGFS sure is ugly, have a vort up in central Canada, another in US midsection, another one coming from Alaska, big SE ridge, west ridge is getting squashed. Cold is getting bottled up, don't like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Getting sick of seeing HP off the east cost (boooooooo)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 12zGFS sure is ugly, have a vort up in central Canada, another in US midsection, another one coming from Alaska, big SE ridge, west ridge is getting squashed. Cold is getting bottled up, don't like this. Only good thing about this run in the medium range will be if the cold front sweeps through and sets up shop and that energy in TX gets going....but that is very much as wishcast at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 In a word, 12z gfs is U G L Y so far.... haha One thing to keep an eye on will be the HP situated over the GL, to see if it moves into a favorable position and strength. At hr 126 it is a 1032 down to 1028 over the favored CAD regions in the Carolinas. I know that models have a tough time picking this up this far out. With the patten change taking place, it will be tough for the models to key in on a bonafide solution. Regardless...next week may be our chance at some wintry wx. I am wishing all here in the SE regions good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 One good thing about this run compared to 6z is it does appear cold air is moving in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well up until 204 GFS is just "meh"...but after 228 things could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 One thing to keep an eye on will be the HP situated over the GL, to see if it moves into a favorable position and strength. At hr 126 it is a 1032 down to 1028 over the favored CAD regions in the Carolinas. I know that models have a tough time picking this up this far out. With the patten change taking place, it will be tough for the models to key in on a bonafide solution. Regardless...next week may be our chance at some wintry wx. I am wishing all here in the SE regions good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The often overlooked UKMet has been on this solution for a few days now of closing off next week's system in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 lol epic snow storm at 264 for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fantasy blizzard incoming at day 11...1060 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I've never really expected anything this weekend for NC, but late next week-weekend looks to be a more favorable time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 @272 looks like a snow storm for all of NC northern SC and Norther GA...but thickness doesn't look right...so could be a massive sleet storm for anything east of I-40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 lol epic snow storm at 264 for WNC Hits GaWx's target date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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