Shawn Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Meh -- Euro doesn't have any better of a clue with this pattern than GFS. When's the last time needing a 500 mile southward trend with the GFS worked out? I personally think with all the changes happening (potentially) the Euro will outperform the GFS like the last 2 winters. If we stay a torch, nvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Folks, I know it seems silly to talk about it since the chances of verifying are lower than a snowball's chance in the SE US., but the 0Z Goofy ensemble mean is another Goofy ensemble mean with a Miller A going across the FL peninsula on 2/10. Hmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hopefully the Euro will still throw us a bone for the weekend storn but we still have 5-6 days for waffling and details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Folks, I know it seems silly to talk about it since the chances of verifying are lower than a snowball's chance in the SE US., but the 0Z Goofy ensemble mean is another Goofy ensemble mean with a Miller A going across the FL peninsula on 2/10. Hmmmm.... Euro Ensemble would support that idea of Feb 9-12 being a timeframe to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 00z Canadian GGEM and GFS are very similar at hr144 (Saturday Evening). Bananna sfc high with centers near upper New York state and Nebraska. Cold air damming east of the apps. GFS has rain with temps in mid-40's in that timeframe at Greensboro. UKMet closes the wave off in the 4 corners region as the northern stream moves into the Northeast....so there's no storm or a very weak one in the southwest. UKMet keeps going farther west with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 120 on the Euro system looks like it's somewhere in Mexico (looking on Allan's site) with a 1039 high building in from the north. Let's see where it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This run is cutting it off in the southern Rockies. similar to GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 definitely no strong damming atleast no ice this run. The way it cuts off changes the configuration of the surface high as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Tremendous +PNA ridge on the Euro at 192. Should lead to strong surge of cold air, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 So no energy ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Tremendous +PNA ridge on the Euro at 192. Should lead to strong surge of cold air, but we'll see It certainly pushes some at Day 10 but doesn't quite make it far enough south from what I can tell. It's a very cold look for the MA/NE/GL regions though. As for what the Euro said about our possible winter storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Just as soon as the models start looking more positive, the trend down begins.. Hopefully the long range can still produce something wintry but the models are just not wanting to unleash the cold on the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It will be at least mid-March or more likely April before this pattern truly breaks down which would be much too late for everyone except the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 A glance at the data at the start of the work day today indicates that if the models have a handle on the next 7 to 10 days, it is not enough of a change to give anyone south of the NE to Mid Atlantic a period of winter. Hopefully the solutions shown are still evolving to how things will eventually play out, but as of now, they still have a considerable ways to go to deliver us a period of solid winter. Hoping for the best, but as we know, a wishcast does not make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the last several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me. **Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the least several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me. **Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10. YEA!! Recent year's history suggests that this is a good time period.....But why am I telling you that Keep bringing the good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 good placement too, as most of the time it will shift west and nail us back inland more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the least several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me. **Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10. 6z certainly looked good it's just that it's 11 days away. We need something 5 days away or 3 days away. Really hope that one verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The 6z GFS does show some potential. But as Burger stated we need to get the potentials closer. This weekend's "potentail" is not looking so good, but lets wait to see what the 12z models say. **The best thing, the 6z GFS did not show the same thing yesterdays 6z showed (warm for SE in LR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This weekend is a crap-shoot at best.....it's occurring just as the pattern change is occurring. We might get nothing as a result of the pattern change, but I think the window of opportunity really begins to open this weekend will will remain open for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 So, after all the hoopla over the weekend, all we are left with this morning is some pretty Euro and GFS Day 10+ maps? Yawn ....... I personally think with all the changes happening (potentially) the Euro will outperform the GFS like the last 2 winters. If we stay a torch, nvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 What an awful shift in the modeling overnight. I have to assume the euro is holding back the energy in the sw again. GFS gives us two entirely different looks with 0 and 6z. NoGAPs had a nice miller A system. Canadian has a long stringy piece of energy from the west to the east coast, essentially. If 12z doesn't get back on board with something and some cold following, I may go right off the cliff. Just hoping that last night was a hiccup. When is the pacific recon data going to be inserted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Unfortunately, this is a lesson that we have learned all winter - me included. Outside of five days, the models are just not that accurate. The pattern, though shifting some, is still one w/ a neutral to positive NAO. Until that changes, I am not expecting much. Tough set of models overnight, but was not completely unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the last several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me. **Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10. Does it include southeast Georgia? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That system next week was fool's gold. Legit theats, if there are any this winter, come after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This has been the winter of the wait till till next weekend or 10 days.. What ever comes first.... Anyway, great disco folks!! So, after all the hoopla over the weekend, all we are left with this morning is some pretty Euro and GFS Day 10+ maps? Yawn ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro has some energy digging back in the west on day 10, similar to GFS that GaWx/Burger was talking about, that is the system that could bring us our first winter storm. This weekend is the transition storm needed to get the cold down and hopefully boot the SE ridge away for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The CFSv2 weeklies have us cold from this weekend through about the 19th, so we appear to have a solid 2 weeks of a window. Hopefully our first chance will be Feb 11/12th and than hopefully we can get another before the pattern caves on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro has some energy digging back in the west on day 10, similar to GFS that GaWx/Burger was talking about, that is the system that could bring us our first winter storm. This weekend is the transition storm needed to get the cold down and hopefully boot the SE ridge away for a couple of weeks. One good thing is that the GFS in the LR kept hinting at something bigger these past couple of runs in that time frame. So it's seeing the potential for something around there. Big question will be does it squash the energy down to Cuba once the cold sets in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 One good thing is that the GFS in the LR kept hinting at something bigger these past couple of runs in that time frame. So it's seeing the potential for something around there. Big question will be does it squash the energy down to Cuba once the cold sets in? Good point, the temp gradient showing up you would think that would argue for quite a dynamic system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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