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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Meh -- Euro doesn't have any better of a clue with this pattern than GFS.

When's the last time needing a 500 mile southward trend with the GFS worked out?

I personally think with all the changes happening (potentially) the Euro will outperform the GFS like the last 2 winters. If we stay a torch, nvm.

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Folks,

I know it seems silly to talk about it since the chances of verifying are lower than a snowball's chance in the SE US., but the 0Z Goofy ensemble mean is another Goofy ensemble mean with a Miller A going across the FL peninsula on 2/10. Hmmmm....

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Folks,

I know it seems silly to talk about it since the chances of verifying are lower than a snowball's chance in the SE US., but the 0Z Goofy ensemble mean is another Goofy ensemble mean with a Miller A going across the FL peninsula on 2/10. Hmmmm....

Euro Ensemble would support that idea of Feb 9-12 being a timeframe to watch.

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00z Canadian GGEM and GFS are very similar at hr144 (Saturday Evening). Bananna sfc high with centers near upper New York state and Nebraska. Cold air damming east of the apps. GFS has rain with temps in mid-40's in that timeframe at Greensboro.

UKMet closes the wave off in the 4 corners region as the northern stream moves into the Northeast....so there's no storm or a very weak one in the southwest. UKMet keeps going farther west with this feature.

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Tremendous +PNA ridge on the Euro at 192. Should lead to strong surge of cold air, but we'll see

It certainly pushes some at Day 10 but doesn't quite make it far enough south from what I can tell. It's a very cold look for the MA/NE/GL regions though.

As for what the Euro said about our possible winter storm....

lied.gif?1306191204

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A glance at the data at the start of the work day today indicates that if the models have a handle on the next 7 to 10 days, it is not enough of a change to give anyone south of the NE to Mid Atlantic a period of winter.

Hopefully the solutions shown are still evolving to how things will eventually play out, but as of now, they still have a considerable ways to go to deliver us a period of solid winter.

Hoping for the best, but as we know, a wishcast does not make a forecast.

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Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the last several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me.

**Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10.

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Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the least several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me.

**Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10.

YEA!! Recent year's history suggests that this is a good time period.....But why am I telling you that ;) Keep bringing the good news!

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Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the least several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me.

**Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10.

6z certainly looked good it's just that it's 11 days away. We need something 5 days away or 3 days away. Really hope that one verifies.

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This weekend is a crap-shoot at best.....it's occurring just as the pattern change is occurring.

We might get nothing as a result of the pattern change, but I think the window of opportunity really begins to open this weekend will will remain open for a while.

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What an awful shift in the modeling overnight. I have to assume the euro is holding back the energy in the sw again. GFS gives us two entirely different looks with 0 and 6z.

NoGAPs had a nice miller A system. Canadian has a long stringy piece of energy from the west to the east coast, essentially.

If 12z doesn't get back on board with something and some cold following, I may go right off the cliff. Just hoping that last night was a hiccup. When is the pacific recon data going to be inserted?

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Unfortunately, this is a lesson that we have learned all winter - me included. Outside of five days, the models are just not that accurate. The pattern, though shifting some, is still one w/ a neutral to positive NAO. Until that changes, I am not expecting much. Tough set of models overnight, but was not completely unexpected.

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Fwiw, the 6Z Goofy has a Miller A on 2/10 that crosses the FL peninsula and actually produces ~2-4" of snow Florence-Myrtle Beach NEward through virtually all of coastal NC! So, there have now been multiple Goofy runs (op./ensemble mean) that have suggested a Miller A crossing the FL pen. over the last several days somewhere between 2/10 and 2/12....still very much a fwiw but getting a little more attention from me.

**Edit: Add today's 6Z Goofy ensemble mean to the list. It, too, shows a Miller A crossing the FL pen. on 2/10.

Does it include southeast Georgia? lol

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The Euro has some energy digging back in the west on day 10, similar to GFS that GaWx/Burger was talking about, that is the system that could bring us our first winter storm. This weekend is the transition storm needed to get the cold down and hopefully boot the SE ridge away for a couple of weeks.

00zeuro500mbHGHTNA240.gif

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The Euro has some energy digging back in the west on day 10, similar to GFS that GaWx/Burger was talking about, that is the system that could bring us our first winter storm. This weekend is the transition storm needed to get the cold down and hopefully boot the SE ridge away for a couple of weeks.

One good thing is that the GFS in the LR kept hinting at something bigger these past couple of runs in that time frame. So it's seeing the potential for something around there. Big question will be does it squash the energy down to Cuba once the cold sets in?

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One good thing is that the GFS in the LR kept hinting at something bigger these past couple of runs in that time frame. So it's seeing the potential for something around there. Big question will be does it squash the energy down to Cuba once the cold sets in?

Good point, the temp gradient showing up you would think that would argue for quite a dynamic system....

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