packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Pretty amazing the GFS ENS keeps the western ridge through the entire run, and some blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Pretty amazing the GFS ENS keeps the western ridge through the entire run, and some blocking.... I dont know much, but those look great. That setup would have to provide us with much more exciting weather than what we've had so far this winter, and i know, that wouldnt take much. WIth that type of ridging, throw in that blocking, I'd be very surprised if someone in the SE didnt get some wintry events out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Pretty amazing the GFS ENS keeps the western ridge through the entire run, and some blocking.... That my friend is going to make for some serious excitement around here, could salvage the entire winter in 2 weeks! And it won't be the first time the daffodills are bloomed and there would be yellow/white flowers sticking up through the SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The +PNA is one thing, I guess, but there isn't any ridge out west right now, we have not had this tall ridge out west, well we had it for a couple of days in earlier January, but not in a good spot for us (to far east), the models are showing it in a favorable spot, let's hope they keep it there. Exactly. That is my point. The PNA has been positive but has been basically useless because of the vortex sitting in NW Territiories/Alaska all winter. It's almost like a displaced/squashed PNA ridge if that makes sense and that has done us no good. We really need the NAO to go negative or at least neutral. Now, if the AO will stay deeply negative that (in combo w/ a +PNA) could put us in busines. I have stated during the past month that I think the pattern will flip, but I am distrustful of the models beyond day 5 due to getting burned by them mid-month on a potential flip to cold/stormy. With spring around the corner the wavelengths should change and "shake-up" the pattern. My concern is that the longer the pattern takes to flip, the more climo comes into play and puts many in the SE into a "thread the needle" situation due it being late in the season. Basically, we have four more weeks(less for some) before climo suggests many are out of the game until next winter. If the pattern takes two weeks to flip, that leaves a very narrow window. For those living in NE TN, NW NC, and SW VA snows into the first week of April are always possible if cold is still around and the pattern is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That my friend is going to make for some serious excitement around here, could salvage the entire winter in 2 weeks! And it won't be the first time the daffodills are bloomed and there would be yellow/white flowers sticking up through the SNOW! Not to be a smart butt, but if those maps verify, it's likely that a LOT of areas could have snow so deep that it will completely cover flowers under the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 CPC catching on to the +PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 CPC catching on to the +PNA ridge. Man it's been so warm that the blue on the map just doesn't look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Pretty amazing the GFS ENS keeps the western ridge through the entire run, and some blocking.... That there is a winter weather pattern. That's some nice cross-polar flow. Amazing setup, if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Man it's been so warm that the blue on the map just doesn't look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If this verifies it will certainly be our best window of opportunity to see snow this winter. I'm not sure if any of the anologs match SE snow storms, perhaps someone knows off the top of their head.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If this verifies it will certainly be our best window of opportunity to see snow this winter. I'm not sure if any of the anologs match SE snow storms, perhaps someone knows off the top of their head.... 2005, 2007, 1978, 1987 would fit for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z Euro Ensemble looks tasty at hr240. Nicely placed, tall western ridge running up Canadian west coast. Cross-polar flow. PV moving southeast toward SE Canada. Large-scale eastern trough, and a southern stream wave undercutting the western ridge and moving into California / Baja CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 00z NAM looks like it has something brewing in the Rockies near the end of its run, as did the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z Euro Ensemble looks tasty at hr240. Nicely placed, tall western ridge running up Canadian west coast. Cross-polar flow. PV moving southeast toward SE Canada. Large-scale eastern trough, and a southern stream wave undercutting the western ridge and moving into California / Baja CA. NICE...VERY NICE. That is a dream setup right there for winter weather fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Still need a suppressed low if we want snow in Central Bama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 00z GFS looks interesting right now at 108...ridge looks like it's building with something brewing in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not digging nearly as well as 12z run --looks like it will close off over Kansas/Nebraska. 00z GFS looks interesting right now at 108...ridge looks like it's building with something brewing in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not digging nearly as well as 12z run --looks like it will close off over Kansas/Nebraska. Yeah those were my thoughts too without seeing it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 @132 system is heading up the Apps and no real cold air around. It does look like there is another low in the GOM...just got get that cold front to sweep through and have that low bomb so it's going to be all timing on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Lots of moisture at 144 too bad it's not cold enough. That is the look you want to see with cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS ~ Meh. Where's the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yea @165 cold air is moving in and chasing the moisture away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 500 low waaaay too far north -- tracks over Missouri/Kentucky -- the GFS would to be going against its oversuppressed bias for us to have a shot. My guess is we see the Euro trend north tonight and/or tomorrow. Still, day 10-18 stretch looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks like a brutal cold rainy saturday in The foothills and piedmont of NC per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks like a brutal cold rainy saturday in The foothills and piedmont of NC per the GFS I don't think its that far off from being ice as there's lot's of hp to the north. We'll see. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 500 low waaaay too far north -- tracks over Missouri/Kentucky -- the GFS would to be going against its oversuppressed bias for us to have a shot. My guess is we see the Euro trend north tonight and/or tomorrow. Still, day 10-18 stretch looks promising. Banking on the GFS outdoing the Euro in this (changing) pattern might not be smart. NOAA is taking note of that fact too in all their recent AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 GFS in the MR is meh and in the LR it gets so close to popping a fantasy blizzard but alas it's suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Crazy run, the cutoff that meanders through the US midsection leaves some energy behind at 168 and another cutoff in TX forms. I am sure NE loves this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Meh -- Euro doesn't have any better of a clue with this pattern than GFS. When's the last time needing a 500 mile southward trend with the GFS worked out? Banking on the GFS outdoing the Euro in this (changing) pattern might not be smart. NOAA is taking note of that fact too in all their recent AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I wouldn't get our hopes up for this weekend but the LR still looks good to me, at least it has potential, there is higher heights in AK throughout the run, thus getting the western ridging, also get some intermittent blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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