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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Pretty amazing the GFS ENS keeps the western ridge through the entire run, and some blocking....

I dont know much, but those look great. That setup would have to provide us with much more exciting weather than what we've had so far this winter, and i know, that wouldnt take much. WIth that type of ridging, throw in that blocking, I'd be very surprised if someone in the SE didnt get some wintry events out of that.

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Pretty amazing the GFS ENS keeps the western ridge through the entire run, and some blocking....

18zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH288.gif

18zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH360.gif

That my friend is going to make for some serious excitement around here, could salvage the entire winter in 2 weeks! And it won't be the first time the daffodills are bloomed and there would be yellow/white flowers sticking up through the SNOW!

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The +PNA is one thing, I guess, but there isn't any ridge out west right now, we have not had this tall ridge out west, well we had it for a couple of days in earlier January, but not in a good spot for us (to far east), the models are showing it in a favorable spot, let's hope they keep it there.

Exactly. That is my point. The PNA has been positive but has been basically useless because of the vortex sitting in NW Territiories/Alaska all winter. It's almost like a displaced/squashed PNA ridge if that makes sense and that has done us no good. We really need the NAO to go negative or at least neutral. Now, if the AO will stay deeply negative that (in combo w/ a +PNA) could put us in busines. I have stated during the past month that I think the pattern will flip, but I am distrustful of the models beyond day 5 due to getting burned by them mid-month on a potential flip to cold/stormy. With spring around the corner the wavelengths should change and "shake-up" the pattern. My concern is that the longer the pattern takes to flip, the more climo comes into play and puts many in the SE into a "thread the needle" situation due it being late in the season. Basically, we have four more weeks(less for some) before climo suggests many are out of the game until next winter. If the pattern takes two weeks to flip, that leaves a very narrow window. For those living in NE TN, NW NC, and SW VA snows into the first week of April are always possible if cold is still around and the pattern is active.

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That my friend is going to make for some serious excitement around here, could salvage the entire winter in 2 weeks! And it won't be the first time the daffodills are bloomed and there would be yellow/white flowers sticking up through the SNOW!

Not to be a smart butt, but if those maps verify, it's likely that a LOT of areas could have snow so deep that it will completely cover flowers under the snow.

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12z Euro Ensemble looks tasty at hr240. Nicely placed, tall western ridge running up Canadian west coast. Cross-polar flow. PV moving southeast toward SE Canada. Large-scale eastern trough, and a southern stream wave undercutting the western ridge and moving into California / Baja CA.

NICE...VERY NICE. That is a dream setup right there for winter weather fun!

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500 low waaaay too far north -- tracks over Missouri/Kentucky -- the GFS would to be going against its oversuppressed bias for us to have a shot. My guess is we see the Euro trend north tonight and/or tomorrow.

Still, day 10-18 stretch looks promising.

Banking on the GFS outdoing the Euro in this (changing) pattern might not be smart. NOAA is taking note of that fact too in all their recent AFDs.

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Meh -- Euro doesn't have any better of a clue with this pattern than GFS.

When's the last time needing a 500 mile southward trend with the GFS worked out?

Banking on the GFS outdoing the Euro in this (changing) pattern might not be smart. NOAA is taking note of that fact too in all their recent AFDs.

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