FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Sorry Robert....had to correct your post....it just fits this winter. LOL... thanks! thats more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Rankin i agree you just have to laugh about this whole pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 It looks like the cold anomolies through days 10 - 15 will be in Eurasia and not here. Disappointing pattern continues. Can't we get just one lucky break this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The pattern will definitely change but will do so in late March and April which will do most everbody no good as far as snow goes. This will lead unfortunately to a very violent Spring for the upper South as the cold finally manages to nudge into the Tn, Va., NC areas with the warmth holding in to the south. With the cold and warmth fighting for control, a real battleground will be set up for some area in the SE which could have terrible consequences for some here I fear. This will lead us into another brutal Summer with little precipitation (barring Tropical systems getting involved) for the vast majority of the SE and mid south. The year of 2011-12 from a winter standpoint will resemble the 1990-91 period for the south and could extend into the 2012-13 winter as well, like it did in 91-92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 It looks like the cold anomolies through days 10 - 15 will be in Eurasia and not here. Disappointing pattern continues. Can't we get just one lucky break this winter? Cheez had the best post yesterday. The models can't even agree on 72 hours out. How the hell are they going to be correct 10 - 15 days out? I'm not trying to grasp at straws but just being patient. As many have pointed out it's been very rare that we've been blanked. I'm not expecting a huge snow or sub freezing temps for weeks. Again just give me seasonal with some cold shots and I'll take my chances on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 2011/2012 Winter...meh The last thing I need is more rain later this week. It's been too soggy outdoors for a while now. We'll take it in the Sandhills and go home happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 It's not rare for Columbia,sc to get blanked. The last 2 winters were rare. This is normal here. I mean it's warmer than normal but nothing abnormal about the lack of snow or sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Major trough over eastern US right, Turn this on its side and look in wpac.. Now thats a trough!!!! http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/161910460743036928/photo/1 Saw this on Big Joe Bastardi Twitter site.Not sure what to make of it.Is he saying that's what's headed to the east,southeast?Also i've reaD Europe is supposted to get extremely cold.Is there somewhere that if it gets cold the southeast gets cold as well?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I see ridging on both sides of us and a pretty deep trough of the east. Looking favorable although I have no idea of the times frame. Big trough in the pacific, hopefully it will pass over the ridging in the west and dive down this way. In my fantasy anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Major trough over eastern US right, Turn this on its side and look in wpac.. Now thats a trough!!!! http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/161910460743036928/photo/1 Saw this on Big Joe Bastardi Twitter site.Not sure what to make of it.Is he saying that's what's headed to the east,southeast?Also i've reaD Europe is supposted to get extremely cold.Is there somewhere that if it gets cold the southeast gets cold as well?? I noticed on last nights run that Japan gets the deep trough, all of east Asia . If thats true, the eastern US should turn cold eventually, but the biggest deterrent is the Alaksan vortex that lives there now.Its hard to maintain an eastern trough with that powerhouse there that sends a fast flow through Canada and the western US. We will just have to see if the models keep developing the eastern trough, and hope that something can amplify far enough west in that fast flow. I think odds would favor the east coast directly from eastern NC, northward. But with such an unusually active flow, its impossible to predict yet. There probably would be a strong amplification somewhere in the US with that deep japan trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the "cold air" for Sunday is out like lightning for NC and TN, and doesnt' even get into areas further south. I don't think its subzero here for 18 hours. Just indicative of the incredibly fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 the "cold air" for Sunday is out like lightning for NC and TN, and doesnt' even get into areas further south. I don't think its subzero here for 18 hours. Just indicative of the incredibly fast flow. Yep it scoots very quickly. Also not as much cold air up in Canada spilling down per this run compared to the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Some light snow breaking out I-40 north at 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 It's pretty close to something bigger at around 228...hard to know where that low would actually go. This of course looks like it would very much be a timing thing. However at least the GFS still has something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 @276 this run has major arctic air pushing down into the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 It's pretty close to something bigger at around 228...hard to know where that low would actually go. This of course looks like it would very much be a timing thing. However at least the GFS still has something. 850's are cold enough but the 2m temps are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Surprised there isn't more chatter right now. From 276 - 336 this run doesn't look bad. Granted it's the LR but it's something ...def. better than those torch runs it had for a few days there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 850's are cold enough but the 2m temps are awful. That far out I'll take my chances. Just keep those 850's around there and the 2m would probably be closer especially if we got some heavy moisture with it. Lots of if's and butts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Surprised there isn't more chatter right now. From 276 - 336 this run doesn't look bad. Granted it's the LR but it's something ...def. better than those torch runs it had for a few days there. I agree, we have the "potential" storm at 216 (we could discuss how cold/dry the air "could" be before the storm). And the cold out-break that is being shown within 12 days (much better than at day 14 or 16). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Don't think anyone posted this, but apparently the 0z Canadian had a bit of something wintry across portions of NC for the Saturday night/early Sunday period. Matthew East confirms this though he believes this isn't likely. Still it was a little something of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Thanks for the PBP Burger.. Just down on winter I guess. Thanks to those who continue to provide great disco day in and day out !!! Surprised there isn't more chatter right now. From 276 - 336 this run doesn't look bad. Granted it's the LR but it's something ...def. better than those torch runs it had for a few days there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS still has the ridge in the west developing around 192,which fits where it was heading yesterdays runs. We'll have to see how much and the shape and location on the Ecmwf today. All models have failed at ridging there this season, so I'd be skeptical for a while, but it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Thanks for the PBP Burger.. Just down on winter I guess. Thanks to those who continue to provide great disco day in and day out !!! I have a feeling the ensemble members might pique our interest this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Thanks for the PBP Burger.. Just down on winter I guess. Thanks to those who continue to provide great disco day in and day out !!! Yep, thanks Burger. Have to agree though, not much excitment this winter so far. Checking in now and then to see if anything is on the horizon. Hate to sound like brick, but it does always seem as if change may happen and always 276 or more out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I have a feeling the ensemble members might pique our interest this afternoon. Great job as usual on the PBP brotha. Yeah would love to have the ensembles show some agreement at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Don't think anyone posted this, but apparently the 0z Canadian had a bit of something wintry across portions of NC for the Saturday night/early Sunday period. Matthew East confirms this though he believes this isn't likely. Still it was a little something of interest. Interesting. Just need that baby to trend colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS still has the ridge in the west developing around 192,which fits where it was heading yesterdays runs. We'll have to see how much and the shape and location on the Ecmwf today. All models have failed at ridging there this season, so I'd be skeptical for a while, but it's certainly possible. That time frame is a little closer than what it had been previously showing though right? Before I thought it was showing that ridge often in the 10 day beyond.....now it is around day 8. If it still continues to show it in 48 hours and within the 5-6 day time frame.......than maybe just maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I just have a feeling that this winter, if it produces, will be something that is not really modeled well at all any more than 72 hours in advance. Just a hunch that there will be a wave that will eventually dig as a result of a buckling of the flow as we head from later winter into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I have a feeling the ensemble members might pique our interest this afternoon. Hope you are right and thanks too for the pbp....especially to you and others when you give pbp when the Euro is running. (Since a lot of us only view the free stuff) Mighty kind to share what you have paid access to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hope you are right and thanks too for the pbp....especially to you and others when you give pbp when the Euro is running. (Since a lot of us only view the free stuff) Mighty kind to share what you have paid access to Don't give him any ideas, or we may have to contribute to the BURGER FUND! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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