wncsnow Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Where on the escarpment are you? I was in Jonas Ridge two years ago on Christmas Eve and Day. Brutal ice storm. Im down in the valley and that ice storm was heavily elevation dependent.. down at 1500 ft there was little to no ice.. just rain but I do remember that was a brutal ice storm for the ridgetops and mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Jan 2000 could be a good analog for what the models are showing, and no I don't think we are in line for a Jan 25 repeat. That was a terrible winter up until the last 2 weeks of Jan, it was a weakening La Nina, then the PNA spiked, AO went negative and we got a -NAO. We had a couple of small events, the cold was established and then we got the big event, 5h from that period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Gotta love it.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 320 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... AFTER A COMPUTER MALFUNCTION...AKA ME KICKING THE POWER CORD OUT OF THE WALL WITHOUT MY AFD SAVED...LET'S SEE IF I CAN RECREATE THAT WHICH WAS ALL BUT ALREADY DONE. IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN...ITS WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN MODELS WERE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...EVEN THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. THINGS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WORSE AS OF LATE...WITH EACH MODEL AFTER 60 HOURS HAVING ITS OWN SUGGESTION AS TO WHAT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING US. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This weekend's potential aside, this type of setup at 240 just looks pretty fun. This overall look would argue for southern-tracking systems with plenty of cold air nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GSP is taking the wait & see approach in the afternoon afd: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 115 PM EST SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE AS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD. A CONSENSUS SOLUTION SUGGESTS SOME DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY ON THU. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO LAY OVER FROM THE NW AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGER POSITIVE TILT WAVE MAY DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS FRI. IF THIS FEATURE MANIFESTS ITSELF...A SFC REFLECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN THU...AND CHC SHOWERS WILL BE SHOTGUNNED ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THE GREATEST MODEL SPREAD IS EXHIBITED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND GEFS SWING THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS SAT AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. THE ECM AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER...KEEPING THE SYSTEM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TENUOUS SOLUTION IS TO BRING A REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...WITH DRIER HIGH PRES ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STEADILY COOL AND A MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Gotta love it.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 320 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... AFTER A COMPUTER MALFUNCTION...AKA ME KICKING THE POWER CORD OUT OF THE WALL WITHOUT MY AFD SAVED...LET'S SEE IF I CAN RECREATE THAT WHICH WAS ALL BUT ALREADY DONE. IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN...ITS WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN MODELS WERE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...EVEN THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. THINGS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WORSE AS OF LATE...WITH EACH MODEL AFTER 60 HOURS HAVING ITS OWN SUGGESTION AS TO WHAT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING US. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND TUESDAY. Lol this is gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'm quite certain that someone will soon post on the main board something about all this cold, interesting stuff being just folly and that the warm weather will return. But the guidance does look interesting today! One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far. He hasn't hedged yet, so let's hope he is wrong, which isn't very often...but he did say this earlier today... For the first time this winter, my medium-term forecast shows cold anomalies in the eastern U.S., southern Ontario, and southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far. well Big Don may be wrong this time. He has been right so far but looks like pattern is definitely changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far. negative on that... Thoughts for the 2/8-15/2012 Timeframe: For the first time this winter, my medium-term forecast shows cold anomalies in the eastern U.S., southern Ontario, and southern Quebec. There is risk that a warmer outcome could still unfold and much will depend on the Arctic Oscillation. Currently, there is a huge spread among the ensemble members for the AO. The following chart shows (clockwise): 1. The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies in the -1.45°C to -0.65°C range, an AO in the -1.25 to -0.25 range, and the PNA in a +0.25 to +1.25 range. 2. The 1/29/2012 0z GFS Ensemble forecast of the Arctic Oscillation. 3. Composite temperature anomalies for MJO Phase 8 (Amplitude 1-2) during La Niñas in February. 4. The Objective Analogs centered on 2/9 rolled forward 3 days (GFS ensembles). I'm pretty much in agreement with the chart based on the teleconnections (1st one). The only adjustment would be that Maine and possibly eastern Canada could be near normal to slightly above normal based on a combination of the blocking and decadal observed warming in that area for February. More than likely, this cold period won't lock in. Instead, it will be similar to what happened a little earlier in January where periodic cold shots occurred over a 7-14-day period before the warmth regained hold. The magnitude of the cold shots might be similar and possibly somewhat less harsh. As a result, my February forecast continues to call for widespread warm anomalies. The 1/29/2012 run of the CFSv2 is even more aggressive on the February warm anomalies (virtually all of the U.S. and Canada, including Alaska). Also AO is likely to average negative for February this year. His favorite Analog is February 1956. This morning, the AO was -4.441. That is the lowest AO reading since December 19, 2010 when the AO was -4.695. Since 1950, there were 14 prior cases on which the AO fell to -4.000 or below in January. In 13/14 (93%) of those cases, the AO averaged < 0 in February. February 1959 was the lone exception. In 11/14 (79%) of those cases, the AO averaged -1.000 or below in February. In 6/14 (43%) of those cases, the AO averaged -2.000 or below in February. Hence, this latest data gives me strong confidence that the AO will average negative in February, and possibly -1.000 or below. What is likely to be unprecedented for January 2012 is that none of the prior cases during which the AO fell to -4.000 or below in January had a January AO average > -1.000. The highest January average among those cases was -1.204 in January 1956. January 2012 has had an average AO of +0.069 (1/1-1/29). The month will likely finish with an average AO of -0.200 to -0.100. February 1956 had a monthly AO average of -2.029. Nevertheless, February 1956 saw the eastern portion of the U.S. have warmer than normal readings. Some of the data used for my February 2012 guess was based on February 1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far. I respect Don but also respect RAH (see above posted discussion). I suppose we'll have to see how everything pans out. ** One thing is going for Don and that's if your not sure about something go with the flow (the flow has been warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 negative on that... Also AO is likely to average negative for February this year. His favorite Analog is February 1956. Maybe you missed this part: "More than likely, this cold period won't lock in. Instead, it will be similar to what happened a little earlier in January where periodic cold shots occurred over a 7-14-day period before the warmth regained hold. The magnitude of the cold shots might be similar and possibly somewhat less harsh. As a result, my February forecast continues to call for widespread warm anomalies." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Maybe you missed this part: "More than likely, this cold period won't lock in. Instead, it will be similar to what happened a little earlier in January where periodic cold shots occurred over a 7-14-day period before the warmth regained hold. The magnitude of the cold shots might be similar and possibly somewhat less harsh. As a result, my February forecast continues to call for widespread warm anomalies." I'm still not seeing in his current forecast what you just claimed. One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I respect Don, too. However, if I recall correctly he was pushing for a continuation of the cold/snowy pattern into February 2011, which did not pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Specifics about the sampling if anyone is interested: 000 NOUS42 KNHC 291815 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0115 PM EST SUN 29 JANUARY 2012 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2012 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 31/0000Z B. AFXXX 08WSC TRACK54 C. 30/1830Z D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 31/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/0000Z. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/1200Z. SEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Out to 144 on the 18z and nothing very interesting winter weather wise. Surface low tracks through Memphis heading ne. Meh. Some rain and mild temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 18Z sucks pretty bad some cold air damming but nothing extreme. Mostly a rain event with the surface LP tracking so far north. Luckily this is the 18Z we are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I like the look of the Euro today. That is at least something we can work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The 18z looks much more like the euro than past runs of the gfs. I'm a little confused as to how the low cuts ne with the high pressure to its nw and ne. Seems like its should move due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Specifics about the sampling if anyone is interested: I look forward to model runs after they have this info......hopefully this will give some clarity to the pac ridge specifics. Unless of course we don't like it......LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Massive change from one run of the GFS to the next- another sign of the pattern chaos. This run is pretty close to the CMC- the upper low closes off too fat west- some minor ice at the start in NC then just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Massive change from one run of the GFS to the next- another sign of the pattern chaos. This run is pretty close to the CMC- the upper low closes off too fat west- some minor ice at the start in NC then just rain. this sounds like what the past 6 months have been like. the stormtrack is west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 18z is another reminder of the problems when the NAO is not negative. The PNA has been positive for much of the winter and has been basically useless w/ the way the pattern has been configured in Alaska. The sharply negative AO is helping and that made a difference in keeping things cold last year. I'm just not that excited until we see some run-to-run continuity. The Euro has my attention but it could easily switch to a warmer pattern w/ an Apps runner. We'll keep our fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 18z is another reminder of the problems when the NAO is not negative. The PNA has been positive for much of the winter and has been basically useless w/ the way the pattern has been configured in Alaska. The sharply negative AO is helping and that made a difference in keeping things cold last year. I'm just not that excited until we see some run-to-run continuity. The Euro has my attention but it could easily switch to a warmer pattern w/ an Apps runner. We'll keep our fingers crossed. Huh? I thought for the majority of winter it's been negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We see some good blocking show up on this run at day 11... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We see some good blocking show up on this run at day 11... Of course. It always shows something good 10+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Huh? I thought for the majority of winter it's been negative? No...the poster was right, it has been slightly positive up until mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Has anyone else noticed that the models have wanted to rebound the nao and ao to positive quickly for the last few days, yet it keeps going lower? Looking at the charts at policlimate, it looks like for the past several days, models thought this would be a brief blip into negative terrority for both the AO and NAO, yet they have continued downward. Is it possible that the models haven't fully grasped the consequences of that change, and could trend even more favorably for southern snow in the next few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Good post from Andy Wood on his blog It appears we COULD be headed toward some sort of a wintry setup the 4th-5th of February. Although, this very well could be a "cold air chasing moisture" type of situation. The last few European forecast model runs were the first to hint toward this and last night's 0z GFS and this morning's 12z GFS (even more so) hints at a warm ridge out west, very cold air spilling into the east and a possible storm setup. As it looks now, the upper-levels are not projected to be tilted in favor of a winter storm setup around here, but the important thing to note is the upper level setup isn't far off from being positioned correctly for something significant. As always, there is plenty of time to watch and see how all the moving parts set up and look for trends in the coming days. Canada/Alaska cold will not stay locked up north of here without very cold chips off the iceberg coming south (if even for brief times) for the next month and a half. We'll see if our recent wet pattern will be a factor in creating a challenging winter weather forecast at around the day-7 to day-8 time frame. This is more of just a heads up that the left-fielder, right-fielder and center-fielder have taken the field, but the infielders are still sitting in the dugout and the pitcher is warming up in the bullpen. Just a hunch, but you won't hear anything about this setup from any other media outlets around here until the NWS starts talking (which, if this sticks, will be several days from now). Also, is not something we have the luxury of time to tell you about during a normal weather show. But, we sure can lay everything on the table here on the blog. I hope you all have a relaxing weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The +PNA is one thing, I guess, but there isn't any ridge out west right now, we have not had this tall ridge out west, well we had it for a couple of days in earlier January, but not in a good spot for us (to far east), the models are showing it in a favorable spot, let's hope they keep it there. Today (no ridge) Day 7 with tall ridge No...the poster was right, it has been slightly positive up until mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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