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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Where on the escarpment are you? I was in Jonas Ridge two years ago on Christmas Eve and Day. Brutal ice storm.

Im down in the valley and that ice storm was heavily elevation dependent.. down at 1500 ft there was little to no ice.. just rain but I do remember that was a brutal ice storm for the ridgetops and mountains

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Jan 2000 could be a good analog for what the models are showing, and no I don't think we are in line for a Jan 25 repeat. That was a terrible winter up until the last 2 weeks of Jan, it was a weakening La Nina, then the PNA spiked, AO went negative and we got a -NAO. We had a couple of small events, the cold was established and then we got the big event,

5h from that period...

mean.500.compday.20000118.20000130.gif

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Gotta love it....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

320 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A COMPUTER MALFUNCTION...AKA ME KICKING THE POWER CORD OUT OF

THE WALL WITHOUT MY AFD SAVED...LET'S SEE IF I CAN RECREATE THAT

WHICH WAS ALL BUT ALREADY DONE.

IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN...ITS WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN MODELS

WERE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...EVEN THROUGH THE

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. THINGS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WORSE AS OF

LATE...WITH EACH MODEL AFTER 60 HOURS HAVING ITS OWN SUGGESTION AS

TO WHAT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING US. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS A

LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND TUESDAY.

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GSP is taking the wait & see approach in the afternoon afd:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AT 115 PM EST SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A LOW

CONFIDENCE ONE AS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUITE

A BIT OF SPREAD. A CONSENSUS SOLUTION SUGGESTS SOME DEGREE OF

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY ON THU. THIS WILL ALLOW A

SFC COLD FRONT TO LAY OVER FROM THE NW AND STALL ACROSS THE

REGION...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE

AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER POSITIVE TILT WAVE MAY DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND

LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS FRI. IF THIS FEATURE MANIFESTS

ITSELF...A SFC REFLECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH A

WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN THE

TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE

COOLER THAN THU...AND CHC SHOWERS WILL BE SHOTGUNNED ACROSS THE

REGION ONCE AGAIN.

THE GREATEST MODEL SPREAD IS EXHIBITED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND

GEFS SWING THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS SAT AND OFF THE

ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. THE ECM AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER...KEEPING

THE SYSTEM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TENUOUS

SOLUTION IS TO BRING A REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON

SAT...WITH DRIER HIGH PRES ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STEADILY

COOL AND A MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS HIGHLY

SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

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Gotta love it....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

320 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A COMPUTER MALFUNCTION...AKA ME KICKING THE POWER CORD OUT OF

THE WALL WITHOUT MY AFD SAVED...LET'S SEE IF I CAN RECREATE THAT

WHICH WAS ALL BUT ALREADY DONE.

IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN...ITS WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN MODELS

WERE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...EVEN THROUGH THE

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE. THINGS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WORSE AS OF

LATE...WITH EACH MODEL AFTER 60 HOURS HAVING ITS OWN SUGGESTION AS

TO WHAT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING US. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS A

LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND TUESDAY.

Lol this is gold.

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I'm quite certain that someone will soon post on the main board something about all this cold, interesting stuff being just folly and that the warm weather will return. But the guidance does look interesting today!

One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far.

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One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far.

He hasn't hedged yet, so let's hope he is wrong, which isn't very often...but he did say this earlier today...

For the first time this winter, my medium-term forecast shows cold anomalies in the eastern U.S., southern Ontario, and southern Quebec.

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One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far.

negative on that...

Thoughts for the 2/8-15/2012 Timeframe:

For the first time this winter, my medium-term forecast shows cold anomalies in the eastern U.S., southern Ontario, and southern Quebec. There is risk that a warmer outcome could still unfold and much will depend on the Arctic Oscillation. Currently, there is a huge spread among the ensemble members for the AO.

The following chart shows (clockwise):

1. The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies in the -1.45°C to -0.65°C range, an AO in the -1.25 to -0.25 range, and the PNA in a +0.25 to +1.25 range.

2. The 1/29/2012 0z GFS Ensemble forecast of the Arctic Oscillation.

3. Composite temperature anomalies for MJO Phase 8 (Amplitude 1-2) during La Niñas in February.

4. The Objective Analogs centered on 2/9 rolled forward 3 days (GFS ensembles).

Feb8to152012.jpg

I'm pretty much in agreement with the chart based on the teleconnections (1st one). The only adjustment would be that Maine and possibly eastern Canada could be near normal to slightly above normal based on a combination of the blocking and decadal observed warming in that area for February.

More than likely, this cold period won't lock in. Instead, it will be similar to what happened a little earlier in January where periodic cold shots occurred over a 7-14-day period before the warmth regained hold. The magnitude of the cold shots might be similar and possibly somewhat less harsh. As a result, my February forecast continues to call for widespread warm anomalies.

Feb2012.gif

The 1/29/2012 run of the CFSv2 is even more aggressive on the February warm anomalies (virtually all of the U.S. and Canada, including Alaska).

Also AO is likely to average negative for February this year. His favorite Analog is February 1956.

This morning, the AO was -4.441. That is the lowest AO reading since December 19, 2010 when the AO was -4.695. Since 1950, there were 14 prior cases on which the AO fell to -4.000 or below in January. In 13/14 (93%) of those cases, the AO averaged < 0 in February. February 1959 was the lone exception. In 11/14 (79%) of those cases, the AO averaged -1.000 or below in February. In 6/14 (43%) of those cases, the AO averaged -2.000 or below in February. Hence, this latest data gives me strong confidence that the AO will average negative in February, and possibly -1.000 or below.

What is likely to be unprecedented for January 2012 is that none of the prior cases during which the AO fell to -4.000 or below in January had a January AO average > -1.000. The highest January average among those cases was -1.204 in January 1956. January 2012 has had an average AO of +0.069 (1/1-1/29). The month will likely finish with an average AO of -0.200 to -0.100. February 1956 had a monthly AO average of -2.029. Nevertheless, February 1956 saw the eastern portion of the U.S. have warmer than normal readings. Some of the data used for my February 2012 guess was based on February 1956.

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One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far.

I respect Don but also respect RAH (see above posted discussion). I suppose we'll have to see how everything pans out. ** One thing is going for Don and that's if your not sure about something go with the flow (the flow has been warm).

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negative on that...

Also AO is likely to average negative for February this year. His favorite Analog is February 1956.

Maybe you missed this part: "More than likely, this cold period won't lock in. Instead, it will be similar to what happened a little earlier in January where periodic cold shots occurred over a 7-14-day period before the warmth regained hold. The magnitude of the cold shots might be similar and possibly somewhat less harsh. As a result, my February forecast continues to call for widespread warm anomalies."

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Maybe you missed this part: "More than likely, this cold period won't lock in. Instead, it will be similar to what happened a little earlier in January where periodic cold shots occurred over a 7-14-day period before the warmth regained hold. The magnitude of the cold shots might be similar and possibly somewhat less harsh. As a result, my February forecast continues to call for widespread warm anomalies."

I'm still not seeing in his current forecast what you just claimed.

One could simply quote Don Sutherland, who believes February may be the warmest of the months of winter so far.

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Specifics about the sampling if anyone is interested:

000

NOUS42 KNHC 291815

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0115 PM EST SUN 29 JANUARY 2012

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2012

WSPOD NUMBER.....11-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72

A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 31/0000Z

B. AFXXX 08WSC TRACK54

C. 30/1830Z

D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 31/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:

A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR

P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/0000Z.

B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR

P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/1200Z.

SEF

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Massive change from one run of the GFS to the next- another sign of the pattern chaos. This run is pretty close to the CMC- the upper low closes off too fat west- some minor ice at the start in NC then just rain.

this sounds like what the past 6 months have been like. the stormtrack is west of the apps.

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18z is another reminder of the problems when the NAO is not negative. The PNA has been positive for much of the winter and has been basically useless w/ the way the pattern has been configured in Alaska. The sharply negative AO is helping and that made a difference in keeping things cold last year. I'm just not that excited until we see some run-to-run continuity. The Euro has my attention but it could easily switch to a warmer pattern w/ an Apps runner. We'll keep our fingers crossed.

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18z is another reminder of the problems when the NAO is not negative. The PNA has been positive for much of the winter and has been basically useless w/ the way the pattern has been configured in Alaska. The sharply negative AO is helping and that made a difference in keeping things cold last year. I'm just not that excited until we see some run-to-run continuity. The Euro has my attention but it could easily switch to a warmer pattern w/ an Apps runner. We'll keep our fingers crossed.

Huh? I thought for the majority of winter it's been negative?

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Has anyone else noticed that the models have wanted to rebound the nao and ao to positive quickly for the last few days, yet it keeps going lower?

Looking at the charts at policlimate, it looks like for the past several days, models thought this would be a brief blip into negative terrority for both the AO and NAO, yet they have continued downward. Is it possible that the models haven't fully grasped the consequences of that change, and could trend even more favorably for southern snow in the next few days?

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Good post from Andy Wood on his blog

It appears we COULD be headed toward some sort of a wintry setup the 4th-5th of February. Although, this very well could be a "cold air chasing moisture" type of situation. The last few European forecast model runs were the first to hint toward this and last night's 0z GFS and this morning's 12z GFS (even more so) hints at a warm ridge out west, very cold air spilling into the east and a possible storm setup. As it looks now, the upper-levels are not projected to be tilted in favor of a winter storm setup around here, but the important thing to note is the upper level setup isn't far off from being positioned correctly for something significant. As always, there is plenty of time to watch and see how all the moving parts set up and look for trends in the coming days.

Canada/Alaska cold will not stay locked up north of here without very cold chips off the iceberg coming south (if even for brief times) for the next month and a half. We'll see if our recent wet pattern will be a factor in creating a challenging winter weather forecast at around the day-7 to day-8 time frame.

This is more of just a heads up that the left-fielder, right-fielder and center-fielder have taken the field, but the infielders are still sitting in the dugout and the pitcher is warming up in the bullpen.

Just a hunch, but you won't hear anything about this setup from any other media outlets around here until the NWS starts talking (which, if this sticks, will be several days from now). Also, is not something we have the luxury of time to tell you about during a normal weather show. But, we sure can lay everything on the table here on the blog. I hope you all have a relaxing weekend!

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The +PNA is one thing, I guess, but there isn't any ridge out west right now, we have not had this tall ridge out west, well we had it for a couple of days in earlier January, but not in a good spot for us (to far east), the models are showing it in a favorable spot, let's hope they keep it there.

Today (no ridge)

12zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif

Day 7 with tall ridge

12zeuro500mbHGHTNH168.gif

No...the poster was right, it has been slightly positive up until mid-Jan.

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