Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV

[NEGa]

no reason to get excited or disappointed with a day 6-7 model solution. Rest assured changes will occur (I know I'm preaching to the choir, but sometimes we need a little redirection from the pulpit ). In any case, I'm just happy there is some kind of threat to track.

i agree, however, the way this winter has gone i am thrilled to see even a CHANCE at something within 7 days. we havent had that many fantasy storms on the models and most events or cold has been 10-15 days away. the fact that its within about 7 is exciting (yeah shows just how boring this winter has been)

at 192 the trough in the SE is slow to move, the western ridge is tall and here comes a strong pocket of cold through central Canada. Very similar to last few runs of this model. I'd watch the SE coast for possible redevelopment. Its over a week away, but good to see a lot of the same features on the modeling , and some consistency. There could still be a huge error early on in the southwest or texas though, if a full cutoff stalls there, changes everything.

hey - love your new site! btw you could have left that part off for a few hours so some of us could enjoy at least thinking we might have some winter weather LMAO

what i really want is another cad where the nws offices and others are saying nothing and you come out on a limb and go with ice storm that we end up getting

[FoothillsNC]

at 204, light sno in most of Ala, northern Miss. Fl. panhandle and most of TN Think that must be the pocket of residual moisture and weak 5 h system left behind. Meahwile major wstern ridging building so the cold air is barreling southward toward the northern Plains and lakes. Most of the east is pretty cold already.

[FoothillsNC]

at 210 and 216, light snow on Carolinas beaches, esp. NC. And a major arctic outbreak is occuring northern plains and Lakes, Midwest. Here comes the big chill.

[tnweathernut]

well I speaking on that setup in regards to longer range GFS, not this storm.

This looks similar to Jan 1996, but not nearly as cold.

Robert, What are the chances this storm trends colder as we get closer? (assuming it's real of course) This time of the year I wouldn't think it would be hard to be 1-2 degrees cooler overall (and not talking about the damming areas as much which could be even colder than that)

[alhooks13]

We are certainly due an ice storm along the escarpment. I remember in the early 2000's and late 90's, the damming would lead to snow at the onset turning to sleet and eventually ZR. Hopefully this scenario will turn out similar to those, because we havent had a damaging ice or wind storm in many years.. timber damage would be severe

Where on the escarpment are you? I was in Jonas Ridge two years ago on Christmas Eve and Day. Brutal ice storm.

[FoothillsNC]

all season long the nation has been prone to severe amplification and the models are still showing just that. Only this time we get to benefit widespread from it, atleast the cold portion, hopefully more than a day. At 216 the core of the cold is around the lakes. Not frigid though in the south and esp. toward Texas, where its a tight gradient between say Tx and the Carolinas.

[tnweathernut]

If this run of the model (Euro) is correct, we could be headed into a really good period for the south/southeast, easily the best period of the winter. To be happening in February is a really good thing.

[griteater]

Nice...

[NavarreDon]

Thanks for the PBP Robert!....Long way to go but it is exciting to read in this dullish winter.

Seems like the crew has stood up & took notice!

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[tarheelwx]

Anyone know how much freezing/frozen qpf the euro spits out for next weekends potential event?

TW

[tnweathernut]

Even in the long range, though the gradient is tight, there is a tremendous cold pool to tap should another amplification occur.

[FoothillsNC]

Another system begins to rapidly develop (probably bomb out) eastern Canada, so that creates a fuji-wara effect to this lobe of intense cold. So far it hasn't penetrated deeplyinto the south. but looks poised to wobble southwest. Its sandwhiched between western ridging and Atlantic ridging. Closed off ridge in the PAC nw.

Overall a good winter-like run. which beats what we've had. The first storm could be a true winter storm in the Mid/upper south and damming regions and piedmont, and again on the northern and back sides. The surface track and placement of about everything is climo for ice in western Carolinas, ne GA. with redevleopment at the coast, which usually maintains wedging after the storm. The big question is what happens after the initial storm. Also, I feel this could trend into a Major MidAtlantic snowstorm/blizzard. *could*. We're a long ways from knowing the track and evolution. Still looks interesting well past day 10 too with split flow showing up on both models.

[Cheeznado]

I have to say, we still have to take any model output right now beyond as soon as day 4 with a boulder of salt. The 12Z Euro looks nothing remotely like the 00Z ensembles, I suspect the 12Z Euro ensembles will again be all over the map. Talking about any sort of details about anything at this point is fruitless. I think we get a West Coast amplifcation, some sort of central or eastern trough but beyond that, it is literally impossible to say anything remotely specific right now until the Euro and Euro ensembles begin to come together with any sort of consistency, which currently we do not have in the least.

[tnweathernut]

Nice...

I think I see the infancy of our phased bomb on that map, with the shortwave in northwest Canada set to drop due south into the southern plains, ready to phase with the system undercutting the western ridge. I know, I know...........one can dream right? All I am saying is that if you get that look, that's possible. Let's hope we can finally move TOWARD some winter vs. finding a way to move away from it.

[POWERSTROKE]

Great job Robert, we all are optimistic as I have said for weeks winter would return. Some have no clue like TWC. I can't believe that channel is still on tv I noticed several other mets have wrote winter off.

[BIG FROSTY]

Great job Robert, we all are optimistic as I have said for weeks winter would return. Some have no clue like TWC. I noticed several other mets have wrote winter off.

Another Met you talk about some said this: That is a cross polar injection of cold into the N America with a negative epo... the kind of pattern that can bring snow all the way into the heart of Dixie, yet alone further north

[Gastonwxman]

Good look on the 12z Euro indices today:. The model still insists on a developing -NAO/-AO the further we go into next month.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zecmwfindices.html

[POWERSTROKE]

Another Met you talk about some said this: That is a cross polar injection of cold into the N America with a negative epo... the kind of pattern that can bring snow all the way into the heart of Dixie, yet alone further north

yep sure did.

[Tullioz]

I have to say, we still have to take any model output right now beyond as soon as day 4 with a boulder of salt. The 12Z Euro looks nothing remotely like the 00Z ensembles, I suspect the 12Z Euro ensembles will again be all over the map. Talking about any sort of details about anything at this point is fruitless. I think we get a West Coast amplifcation, some sort of central or eastern trough but beyond that, it is literally impossible to say anything remotely specific right now until the Euro and Euro ensembles begin to come together with any sort of consistency, which currently we do not have in the least.

Thanks for keeping it real. It was just a month ago that the models were showing the possibility of a big Winter storm the first week in January. The Euro was showing a deep trough in the East and a storm bringing Heavy snow from NC all the way up the East Coast. We all know how that worked out. Anything a week away has to be taken lightly, especially this season.

[HKY_WX]

The players are there for this to trend into something relevant. I love the look at day 6 on the euro. Notice the cutoff in the atlantic and strengthening ridge over Canada. This pattern would really promote digging and the development of a cutoff over the ohio valley or southeast. Need to watch this b/c the model may be having difficulty here.

[BrierCreekWx]

The players are there for this to trend into something relevant. I love the look at day 6 on the euro. Notice the cutoff in the atlantic and strengthening ridge over Canada. This pattern would really promote digging and the development of a cutoff over the ohio valley or southeast. Need to watch this b/c the model may be having difficulty here.

Agreed...again! I think the location of the Atlantic cutoff will also be a major player in how this evolves. If it stays further west, that would mean more confluence over the northeast and a stronger, longer lasting high which would certainly keep the southeast colder. So many variables to figure out, but I think this is certainly something to watch and I can see how this could trend into a major southeastern US winter storm, but several things do need to shift some.

[HKY_WX]

Agreed...again! I think the location of the Atlantic cutoff will also be a major player in how this evolves. If it stays further west, that would mean more confluence over the northeast and a stronger, longer lasting high which would certainly keep the southeast colder. So many variables to figure out, but I think this is certainly something to watch and I can see how this could trend into a major southeastern US winter storm, but several things do need to shift some.

Yep. I have access to 6 hr euro frames and at day 6 it splits the cutoff over texas into 2 pieces and then squashes it with the northern stream. Honestly haven't seen the happen very often at all. The overall pattern IMO would promote that HP over west to be centered further east, but at this point it's a little too early b/c we don't know what will happen with these shortwaves. There are literally 4 or 5 different pieces that show up b/n day 5 and 7. But you can see the how amplified this pattern could become with the jetstreak north of the Dakatos diving due south.

[jmundie]

Thanks for keeping it real. It was just a month ago that the models were showing the possibility of a big Winter storm the first week in January. The Euro was showing a deep trough in the East and a storm bringing Heavy snow from NC all the way up the East Coast. We all know how that worked out. Anything a week away has to be taken lightly, especially this season.

This is a little different than that situation. There was one run of the Euro which showed a mega bomb, and it never showed up again.

There's been something in this time frame that has moved from 240 to 168 over the past few days. Its still a bit disorganized for me to get super excited, but the possibilities of snow for the mid/upper south, and some in the southeast for next weekend seems at least decent. Enough to be cautiously hopeful at least.

[tnweathernut]

This is a little different than that situation. There was one run of the Euro which showed a mega bomb, and it never showed up again.

There's been something in this time frame that has moved from 240 to 168 over the past few days. Its still a bit disorganized for me to get super excited, but the possibilities of snow for the mid/upper south, and some in the southeast for next weekend seems at least decent. Enough to be cautiously hopeful at least.

I agree with this. Virtually ALL modeling shows a very nice PNA developing. The fact that something has shown up at the surface on several model runs now leads me to believe there will be "something" there. No way to know where, but the players are on the field and not too far out. In the past day +, even the GFS has shown a pretty major cutoff developing, albeit in a different spot (which would have yielded major snow to parts of Missouri). I think we will see something develop, just impossible to know just were that might be.

[NC_hailstorm]

Just a few observations and opinions on what I see on the Strat/MJO side:

-After a long 3 month battle the strong PV has finally been weakened and displaced in 60N-90N and on the 10hPa and 30hPa levels at the moment,the prime spots to look for blocking.The barrage of warmiing and -QBO is starting to show up.All that's left there is some fairly weak +westerlies but this is a huge change compared to what has been going on up there the last 3 months.Moving this is huge IMO the AO is starting to respond now check out the reading today it was -4.The peak of the warming/reversed zonal winds started Jan 14th since then it has leveled off but stayed weak,using the 3 to 4 week lag time we could see a change soon,models are hinting at it anyway.The concern is the PV in the long range forecast could go back to the same area.I don't know if this is accurate but will need to be watched,shows the PV penetrating 1 and 3 hPa.

-Strongest MJO in over 3 months is forecasted on all the major models now,that's a good teleconnection to a ridge out west and a trof in the midwest/east,getting convection close to the datelineForecast is for 8 and 1 phase,if it weakens we may not get as big a change.

Could get a decent window for something wintry if forecasts hold,we'll see.

[Gastonwxman]

The way I look at this, it is like one big puzzle and all the pieces need to be put together correctly. If something is off with one of those pieces, the whole thing becomes ruined or our chances get reduced. There is much that needs to be handled with this potential system before we can even be confident on the matter for some folks across the Southeast but the fact that the Euro still insist on giving some wintry precipitation is at least one thing on the positive side, as we have been seeing these kind of things disappear the next day or two so far this winter (like when the GFS had that snowstorm at one point before dropping it) so we'll see if it continues to advertise the threat. Definitely not something to shrug off, as I feel that this could really be our first real winter threat to track. We'll see over the next few days how it plays out but right now, I can honestly say that I'm a bit excited for once.

[Cold Rain]

I'm quite certain that someone will soon post on the main board something about all this cold, interesting stuff being just folly and that the warm weather will return. But the guidance does look interesting today!

[Tullioz]

This is a little different than that situation. There was one run of the Euro which showed a mega bomb, and it never showed up again.

There's been something in this time frame that has moved from 240 to 168 over the past few days. Its still a bit disorganized for me to get super excited, but the possibilities of snow for the mid/upper south, and some in the southeast for next weekend seems at least decent. Enough to be cautiously hopeful at least.

I agree that the situation is different this go around, I was just trying to point out that it is still a little far out there in time to get too excited

.

I agree with this. Virtually ALL modeling shows a very nice PNA developing. The fact that something has shown up at the surface on several model runs now leads me to believe there will be "something" there. No way to know where, but the players are on the field and not too far out. In the past day +, even the GFS has shown a pretty major cutoff developing, albeit in a different spot (which would have yielded major snow to parts of Missouri). I think we will see something develop, just impossible to know just were that might be.

Just a couple of weeks ago we had all of the models in agreement that the period between the 20th of this month and today would feature very warm and perhaps record breaking warmth for the Eastern half of the country. Things did not work out anywhere close to that actually happening. I know this set up is different, but we are still talking a week away. Who knows what will actually transpire.

[tnweathernut]

-AO 4.441 today..........now that's a negative AO

[metwannabe]

Don't know if anyone has seen the Rah AFD for today....here is a portion. Interesting indeed.....Recon going out in Pacific first of week....gotta love that!!

MODEL SPREAD FURTHER INCREASES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH

RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL CUTOFF...AND IF SO HOW QUICKLY IT

PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY

IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE TREND IN 12Z/29TH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD A

CUTOFF SOLUTION...AND SUGGESTS MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GULF TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FRI-SUN. WILL

TREND THE FORECAST TO DRY IN BRIEF POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE THU

NIGHT-FRI...THEN CARRY CHANCE POP THEREAFTER WITH THE THREAT OF AN

EAST COAST STORM THIS WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD MAY BRING THE FIRST

LEGITIMATE WINTER STORM THREAT TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND A

WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECONNAISSANCE MISSION WILL ACCORDINGLY BE

FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK. DATA FROM THAT MISSION WILL HOPEFULLY RESOLVE

THE VAST MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. LONGER TERM

GUIDANCE INDICATES EVEN STRONGER FLOW AMPLIFICATION AND AN

ASSOCIATED STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA SIGNAL FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD

RESULT IN A COLDER AND STORMIER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST

AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF FEB.

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