Chris L Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Hey my southern friends, this winter has been pretty horrible for the entire East Coast, (I only had 3.5" of snow this season, up here in New Jersey). and I really want everyone to cash in in February. With that said, the ECMWF has developed the ideal, (well as good as it can get, because ideal would be February 2010-January 1996 style pattern). Anyway, There is a high heights right ON Greenland, and the PNA ridge is through the roof, along with the PV in Eastern Canada; the link between the huge PNA ridge and the Atlantic side is there (or at least trying to pump heights above and promote the PV SE. Perhaps a split flow pattern; or when the polar jet digs further south, into the Gulf, we would get a classic Miller A bomb. But I have hope that it will happen. Just need to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Ridge on GFS isn't properly positioned to benefit most of those in the SE through February 15th. We are nearing the end of the hour glass folks. Soon the sand will run out if it hasn't already. No firm blocking at all through mid month. Ridging out west breaks down mid run then comes back at 384. 0 850s never get past Tennessee. Blah. Blah Blah. Same old song and dance all winter long. There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me.......You can't get fooled again. Where would you prefer the ridge axis? The pacific is fine on the GFS. The only issue I see is the atlantic is in a very fast pattern. That prevents amplification of systems and cutoffs from forming over the ECONUS. Instead you see more clipper type systems and weak southern stream systems with improper timing. Would like to see the 50/50 low the models were showing yesterday pop back up. That's all we're missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This weekend event is going to be really tough but the LR still looks promising to me, look at the ridge built at day 10 with part of the PV in eastern Canada. I agree. The western ridge is in good position. The key is how long does it hold, because we have no evidence to support much in the way of help on the Atlantic side (-NAO). Also, for whatever reason, there is less cold Arctic air (around the pole) to tap this winter compared to others. Hopefully, we can get the ridge to hold and have a sustained perior of 'cold enough' air. Last night's Euro and Euro Ensemble both look good with the cold air setup after day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 84 hours the ecmwf has the western ridging going up, and a weak system around the Mo. bootheel/southeast states. Warm most of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Where would you prefer the ridge axis? The pacific is fine on the GFS. The only issue I see is the atlantic is in a very fast pattern. That prevents amplification of systems and cutoffs from forming over the ECONUS. Instead you see more clipper type systems and weak southern stream systems with improper timing. Would like to see the 50/50 low the models were showing yesterday pop back up. That's all we're missing. I agree. In fact, with a pacific ridge that tall, and the PV in the position it is near the Hudson Bay, there should be a steady supply of short waves and enough confluence over the northeast to give the southeast multiple chances at winter weather. Sure, any surface high is going to have a hard time getting anchored in, but if the PV stays in the area it's currently modeled as in the image above, we should see continued shots of cold and rebuilding high pressure. In short, I think this is a pattern that can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 96, the ridging sends one s/w into Montana, the other is in 4 corners region. Some cold is filtering south now. Looks similar so far to last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 1032 high north of MN and the ridge in CAN is tipping eastward, so we may have a phasing in the sothern plains or miss. Valley. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Look, I want the GFS long range to verify. But can we get the monster western ridge showing up in less than 200 hours? Anything beyond 7 days on the GFS has been fantasy this entire winter. I just won't believe the split flow until it's showing up on current weather maps. I would take 216HR in a heartbeat. But will it verify? Most likely not and instead we end up with a PAC ridge that does more harm than good. I'm very jaded at this point with the models showing huge western ridges only to end up with a shadow of the prediction. The only saving grace this time appears to be model support form the Canadian and European in the LR. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro is already much different than the GFS, looks more similar to the CMC so far, Given the fact that the GFS got its clock cleaned wth the last system involving the phasing of northern/southern streams I can pretty much say the the GFS should be ignored in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro is already much different than the GFS, looks more similar to the CMC so far, Given the fact that the GFS got its clock cleaned wth the last system involving the phasing of northern/southern streams I can pretty much say the the GFS should be ignored in this case. Well the CMC cut, this can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This is defnitely heading toward a big system. The northeast system is fairly strong and provides some confluence, so we'll see if the high or a part of it gets under there. Meanwhile the main system is developing in Texas. Snow in the panhandles and OK. to northern Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Oh wow. Euro is sniffing something...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 wow. Strong damming at 138 in the Carolinas and GA with the banana shaped classic high and inverted trough. Low is in northern Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Damming does us on the west of the apps no good Robert, but the low in northern LA sounds good. I am listening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Actually the new Euro is looking intriguing for at least some ice in the Carolinas with CAD showing up as an upper low cuts off in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 low is in central Miss. The 5h system is cutoff in Tex. or La. Strong damming signal for western Carolinas to ne GA, with 0 line at Virginia. Should be interesting storm if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Whata storm this is shaping up to be . Strong damming at 150, snow at the NC/VA line, ice western carolinas most likely. Snow on the northern shield in Ky Mo and Ark, with changeover to snow likely in Tenn valley and Miss, La. At 156, the low is Montgomery, Ala. Snow from Richmond to DC and points west. Ice western Carolinas, with aa 1032 high north of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 So long as the confleuence in the stream develops like the model shows in eastern Maine and Canada, that will easily be the best damming situation we've seen in years, and actually have a shot at freezing precip. At 162, the primary is dying in east TN and redevelopment in SC coast. Snow from DC and arcing around the back side to Nashville. Still dammed up Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This euro taken literally is just a typical 34 degree rain for GA, iffy for ice in SC but western and the Piedmont of NC would likely have some frozen, mainly ice. I think we can say some sort of trough digs to the west in the Plains and we get wet in the SE, but details beyond that are still very up in the air wth the continuing model slips and flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 168, the flow is blockd, so the storm has a hard time pressing up the coast thanks to eastern Canada storm. The high in Canada has weakend but by then the Southeast storm is winding down. But the tail end of the s/w trough in Texas is pretty sharp. And by 174, looks like redevelopment is set to occur somewhere in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'm sure most outside of the Carolinas would like to see a more southerly track of the Low along the coast. What I would do to buy a -NAO right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 When was the last "true" Miller-B storm for North Carolina? Seems like its been years...and to be honest, we're due for a doozy of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 168, the flow is blockd, so the storm has a hard time pressing up the coast thanks to eastern Canada storm. The high in Canada has weakend but by then the Southeast storm is winding down. But the tail end of the s/w trough in Texas is pretty sharp. And by 174, looks like redevelopment is set to occur somewhere in the Southeast. I believe you said eerily similar to 88 a while ago? started out the same way we werent supposed to get much to start with, a couple days out, then the damming really kicked in and wouldnt budge and BOOM went the snow dynamite for us. I'll take my chances with a CAD, they can really make a big difference around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 180, the eastern Canda storm has totally bombed out. That slows and kills off the east coast storm, meanwhile the trough is prtty sharp in the Deep South. Its close to redveloping a system near Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I believe you said eerily similar to 88 a while ago? started out the same way we werent supposed to get much to start with, a couple days out, then the damming really kicked in and wouldnt budge and BOOM went the snow dynamite for us. I'll take my chances with a CAD, they can really make a big difference around these parts. well I speaking on that setup in regards to longer range GFS, not this storm.This looks similar to Jan 1996, but not nearly as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 i would love to see the 1032 high trend a little stronger as we head through the week.....that way we can try and add parts of ne ga and the upstate into the fun. its been so long since we had an ice event here i wouldnt mind seeing one play out this week (the way they USED to, high trending stronger, temps trending down and precip trending up ) at least we might have something to sort of track (sort of for some of us who will be 33 and rain but hoping for that 1.5 degree drop haha) then the damming really kicked in and wouldnt budge and BOOM went the snow dynamite for us. I'll take my chances with a CAD, they can really make a big difference around these parts. ditto - those of us in ne ga and the upstate are jonesing for a good cad. as long as our temps are showing in the 30s and lower dewpoints are coming in i will hold out hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We are certainly due an ice storm along the escarpment. I remember in the early 2000's and late 90's, the damming would lead to snow at the onset turning to sleet and eventually ZR. Hopefully this scenario will turn out similar to those, because we havent had a damaging ice or wind storm in many years.. timber damage would be severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 no reason to get excited or disappointed with a day 6-7 model solution. Rest assured changes will occur (I know I'm preaching to the choir, but sometimes we need a little redirection from the pulpit ). In any case, I'm just happy there is some kind of threat to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 192 the trough in the SE is slow to move, the western ridge is tall and here comes a strong pocket of cold through central Canada. Very similar to last few runs of this model. I'd watch the SE coast for possible redevelopment. Its over a week away, but good to see a lot of the same features on the modeling , and some consistency. There could still be a huge error early on in the southwest or texas though, if a full cutoff stalls there, changes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 FWIW...the NAO falls off the chart on today's 12z EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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