Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

Recommended Posts

I'd bet, oh, 1 dollar, that Cheez comes on here later to report that the Euro is an outlier with its deep trough....compared to the Euro Ensembles.

Its too early to say yet, but when extreme storms or situations play out, the operationals are closer to verfiying than ensemble means of course. I feel like since this is new this year so far, it looks extreme to me, but has to be taken with consideration since no western ridge has verified yet. And this one is a humdinger on all models, for quite a while. It will take some time to convince many I'm sure. If that mega ridge does verify, you can bank on a Ga storm developing that runs up the coast, just using old synoptics.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

at 186 and 192 the energy is still digging. The model sees something. This run is extremely close to showing southern GA or coastal GA or SC development with interior snow. Verbatim there is snow interirior upper south MS, TN, AL, GA Carolinas but light. Indicative of a closing off system aloft. Upper temps support snow, not sure about surface temps, esp. east of the Apps.

thanks for your input

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think by Monday models will start to come together. First guess is a major Winter storm for "somewhere" between Arkansas Georgia and Virginia. Western Canada ridging will be the key to how far south and west this cuts off. Big unknown yet, I've seen this before. Sort of similar to Jan 1996.

The problem I see as a comparison to Jan 1996 is that there is no cold air in place ahead of the storm. There is the initial weak wave the moves through and cold air tries to settle in east of the mountains, but it's not a strong push. I feel like the Euro is about as deep and slow with the trough that we could hope for, and even with it, the cold air is very marginal east of the mtns. from the NC/VA border south. For this to work, I feel that we would need this to dig even further south and slow down even more, which is asking a lot. I do like the later panels with the vortex dropping to the southeast of Hudson Bay. The keys that I see in the longer range are 1) Does the Aleutian Low / west coast Canada ridge combo hold, or is it transient....and 2) Will we see any -NAO blocking develop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at 186 and 192 the energy is still digging. The model sees something. This run is extremely close to showing southern GA or coastal GA or SC development with interior snow. Verbatim there is snow interirior upper south MS, TN, AL, GA Carolinas but light. Indicative of a closing off system aloft. Upper temps support snow, not sure about surface temps, esp. east of the Apps.

A double barrel...overrunning?? Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys will not like the look of the 6z GFS. It does show some potential for winter precip at around day 6 (CAD look), but the LR looks like typical La Nina setup with most of the cold air staying in Canada (except some in NW and northen plains).

Maybe that's a good thing. It is usually off in the LR anyway and sometimes right in the short/mid range...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys will not like the look of the 6z GFS. It does show some potential for winter precip at around day 6 (CAD look), but the LR looks like typical La Nina setup with most of the cold air staying in Canada (except some in NW and northen plains).

Yeah, very concerning, but the ensembles still look good so hopefully they are correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS, in the latter stages of the 0z and 6z runs, do like happened the last time we tried to build a western ridge......cut off the ridge up toward northern AK. This is one of the main things that killed the potential pattern chance for January. Don't like seeing that. However, it's a little different this time around in that there continue to be some signs of full latitude ridging in some fashion near the west coast, and the ensembles don't look bad. The Euro looks nice with the western ridge through the run and even appears to be building it even more at 240.

As Robert mentioned, the Euro is mighty close to something nice for the Southeast 168-204, but the 500mb trough attempt to turn the corner and close off a little too late.

I like the overall looks of where the pattern looks to be going. Things can always go wrong, and they have thus far this winter, but the February pattern definitely looks to give the region at least a fighting chance, whereas we've had viturally no chance thus far this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS, in the latter stages of the 0z and 6z runs, do like happened the last time we tried to build a western ridge......cut off the ridge up toward northern AK. This is one of the main things that killed the potential pattern chance for January. Don't like seeing that. However, it's a little different this time around in that there continue to be some signs of full latitude ridging in some fashion near the west coast, and the ensembles don't look bad. The Euro looks nice with the western ridge through the run and even appears to be building it even more at 240.

As Robert mentioned, the Euro is mighty close to something nice for the Southeast 168-204, but the 500mb trough attempt to turn the corner and close off a little too late.

I like the overall looks of where the pattern looks to be going. Things can always go wrong, and they have thus far this winter, but the February pattern definitely looks to give the region at least a fighting chance, whereas we've had viturally no chance thus far this winter.

It seems to me Matt and I am by no means an expert but that's been pretty indicative of the models especially this winter (or heck every winter) it sees some large scale changes, pulls back with a flip only to come up with a less extreme solution but closer to the original solution it sniffed out . With these runs literally everything is on the table from cool and dry to CAD monster extreme...just have to get that cold air in here first. Should be fun for you guys who do this for a living this week...good luck with that! :bag:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys will not like the look of the 6z GFS. It does show some potential for winter precip at around day 6 (CAD look), but the LR looks like typical La Nina setup with most of the cold air staying in Canada (except some in NW and northen plains).

We have seen how well the the models are doing in the long range lol. Of course since that's been the pattern this winter it wouldn't surprise me. However, at this point I am not as concerned with the long range as iam that we might have something to watch finally. Even an inch would be nice at this point lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ridge on GFS isn't properly positioned to benefit most of those in the SE through February 15th. We are nearing the end of the hour glass folks. Soon the sand will run out if it hasn't already. No firm blocking at all through mid month. Ridging out west breaks down mid run then comes back at 384. 0 850s never get past Tennessee. Blah. Blah Blah. Same old song and dance all winter long.

There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me.......You can't get fooled again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ridge on GFS isn't properly positioned to benefit most of those in the SE through February 15th. We are nearing the end of the hour glass folks. Soon the sand will run out if it hasn't already. No firm blocking at all through mid month. Ridging out west breaks down mid run then comes back at 384. 0 850s never get past Tennessee. Blah. Blah Blah. Same old song and dance all winter long.

There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me.......You can't get fooled again.

the gist of the GFS since 5 days ago has been to build a major western ridge, its still doing this and is now very well in sight and is likely, similar to when it built the northof Alaska block late Dec/early Jan. The pattern coming up is a good one for much of the country and the battle zone looks like it will stretch from Texas Panhandle , due east. and includes the east coast for one or 2 good Winter storms. That block in western Canada is a tell-tale sign, and its been on the GFS mostly for 5 or 6 days now so its working within its window...wouldn't worry about day 16 yet, sure the pattern may revert back to the same as it was, but it does look like we're going to get into a conducive pattern, and right around Feb 14, which is climo good time. The split flow is still showing up as well, and the position of the big PNA+ ridge and combining jetstreams in the east has given winter storms even without a neg. NAO. Looks eerily similar to Jan 1988 pattern for a bit. But the details of course are sketchy.

www.wxsouth.com

post-38-0-52892300-1327856976.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...