stinky Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 @174 there is a scattered snow shower look...but might be too light. At this point I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Well all good things must come to an end on this run it happens after 200 hopefully it gets better in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 looks like this run puts a lot of energy in the first wave but theres a tell-tale sign holding back. Notice the baggy trough through the mid South? I think the GFS is displaying its bias here. The ecmwf was further west, if you compromise we may have a weaker first system and a stronger cutoff system for the deep south at some point. Hard to say, but it could trend that way, and thats' how I've liked it or leaned . But I wouldn't commit, just venturing some guesses. Its a loaded potential, but unusual setup. In the end the midatlantic is probably looking good with either scenario, and possibly the deep southor upper south/Tenn Valley or Carolinas N. GA if the development is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Nasty cold along the US/Canadian Border in the long range...making its way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Nasty cold along the US/Canadian Border in the long range... Too bad it hangs out up north from about 216 till the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Did the PV get obliterated in the LR, It's hard to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 What a buzzkill this was BUT it is just one run, so we'll see if this was a fluke or the beginning of a downtrend. I noticed around 192 that as soon as that ridge looked the way it did, it would spell trouble down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 looks like this run puts a lot of energy in the first wave but theres a tell-tale sign holding back. Notice the baggy trough through the mid South? I think the GFS is displaying its bias here. The ecmwf was further west, if you compromise we may have a weaker first system and a stronger cutoff system for the deep south at some point. Hard to say, but it could trend that way, and thats' how I've liked it or leaned . But I wouldn't commit, just venturing some guesses. Its a loaded potential, but unusual setup. In the end the midatlantic is probably looking good with either scenario, and possibly the deep southor upper south/Tenn Valley or Carolinas N. GA if the development is slower. we can sure hope! but i dont expect much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 in the medium range around days 10 through 13 there is weak greenland ridging and western Canada ridging...that combo is a good one for us. but later int eh run it takes the block to northern Alaska and that is where we've been all winter , atleast lately. There is enormous potential here in this type of flow and atleast the models are holding on to some western Canada ridging and even slight split flow. Usually when the GFS is adamant, its right, but takes a while. HOpefully we don't get back to the exact same spot we began in early Jan. with the Siberian block though. By then strong arctic highs could be covering Canada and its a different ball game. obviously we're heading to a new pattern, but its still no easier to forecast. I thought it wouldn't be. There is too much going on in the Pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 That run was déjà vu to the early Jan "pattern flip" where we had a few good LR runs and then things went to crap in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'd bet the ensembles will show strong + anomalies western Canada and strong - anomalies in the Southeast. Thats a good combo. It may take a while, but I think thats where the pattern is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'd bet the ensembles will show strong + anomalies western Canada and strong - anomalies in the Southeast. Thats a good combo. It may take a while, but I think thats where the pattern is heading. You are right...ENS look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'd bet the ensembles will show strong + anomalies western Canada and strong - anomalies in the Southeast. Thats a good combo. It may take a while, but I think thats where the pattern is heading. Nice one. Looks much better than the OP with the western ridge/eastern trough. Now to see what the Euro has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think that is last night run... It update here in starting about 12 am cdt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think that is last night run... It update here in starting about 12 am cdt... It may have been but was hoping someone would tell me whether or not it's the updated one. I went to Allan's site under the 0z and saw a similar image so I figured it was the correct 0z. Hard to tell for me personally when looking at the PSU site sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It may have been but was hoping someone would tell me whether or not it's the updated one. I went to Allan's site under the 0z and saw a similar image so I figured it was the correct 0z. Hard to tell for me personally when looking at the PSU site sometimes... Anything that is in red on the PSU website is material that is outdated...The blueish color is the updated for that model run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It was beginning to look good for someone in the south at 156 then everything feel apart... IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Anything that is in red on the PSU website is material that is outdated...The blueish color is the updated for that model run.. Yeah I see it now. Thanks for clearing it up for me. I usually google for it so I wasn't aware of the color representation on the individual frames. My apologies SE peeps. EDIT: Deleted so that anyone who was not on last night will mistakenly see it as the new 0z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 the european looks like a dream for someone. It takes the first wave and keeps it separate, going through Ohio Valley, meanwhile the big ridge develops and energy drops due south through the plains, and a 1032 high north of Minnesota pushes cold air down behind the Ohio Valley wave. At 138 the ridge in western Canada is tipping east, thats a sign that the digging plains wave could develop in the Deep South. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The good news is the model isn't cutting off so far west. 1036 high north of MN and bagginess in the mid south. Could a cutoff develop around MEM? Looks possible. Snow fallin west of the apps in the moisture field many spots. The flow is backing along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 snow or mix in western Carolinas , north GA and all of TENN valley at 162. Depends on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 and again at 168, with increasing intensity east TN, w. NC at 168. Looks like a cutoff or 850 low is forming in southern Apps. region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Robert thanks for the pbp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 186 and 192 the energy is still digging. The model sees something. This run is extremely close to showing southern GA or coastal GA or SC development with interior snow. Verbatim there is snow interirior upper south MS, TN, AL, GA Carolinas but light. Indicative of a closing off system aloft. Upper temps support snow, not sure about surface temps, esp. east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 at 186 and 192 the energy is still digging. The model sees something. This run is extremely close to showing southern GA or coastal GA or SC development with interior snow. Verbatim there is snow interirior upper south MS, TN, AL, GA Carolinas but light. Indicative of a closing off system aloft. Upper temps support snow, not sure about surface temps, esp. east of the Apps. I noticed DT on his facebook page was screaming rain for all the East Coast. He posted a map at hour 120... I'm glad for once we're getting something half-way worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This is definitely somthing to watch. Not normally how we get our winter storms though, but the potential as I mentioned a couple days ago, in an anomalous flow like this, is there. We've tended toward cutoffs. If the cutoff doesnt' become too extreme or too west, then I think odds are this ends up being a winter storm for some areas, maybe even many, depending on where the surface low and moisture axis takes shape. Needs to shift a few miles west yet, but its close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 compromising the old runs of each, the new runs and the ensembles, and it still looks to me like a good possibility of a major southeast coastal. Thats all it is at 168 hours though, potential. After reviewing the rest of the run, I think this is the best chance this season of something major winter wise, but I wouldn't pin point it yet. First hunch is MidAtlantic coast, from NC into NJ. Second choice is interior South (TN valley/Apps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think by Monday models will start to come together. First guess is a major Winter storm for "somewhere" between Arkansas Georgia and Virginia. Western Canada ridging will be the key to how far south and west this cuts off. Big unknown yet, I've seen this before. Sort of similar to Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'd bet, oh, 1 dollar, that Cheez comes on here later to report that the Euro is an outlier with its deep trough....compared to the Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 and the arctic motherlode enters the northern US , from ND to northeast at 240, with eyes due south, at 240. Major western ridging. Good consistency there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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