burgertime Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z Euro OP and ensemble indice forecasts look pretty nice toward the end as the +PNA ridge builds. Even went out of their way to show a developing -NAO/-AO. Not sure if I buy the -NAO/-AO getting stronger like it is on the OP though. http://raleighwx.ame...mwfindices.html http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html Gotta love that this would be quite the turn of fortunes if that comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I don't post alot but there are a thousand birds hootin and hollerin in a few trees in my yard, So they must be discussing a pattern change or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Differences between 12z and 18z GFS are huge. 18z has no cutoff or seperation of the trough at all in days 6-7. Northern stream dominates and just swings through as one consolidated trough. i.e. dry frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I want to let you know that I appreciate your contributions! Thanks. Glad that you enjoy the things I post on here. Always glad to have such great folks like yourself as a part of the SE crew. Gotta love that this would be quite the turn of fortunes if that comes true. It most certainly would. I always figured that if we are going to have a last chance to get a nice second half of winter, at the latest it would be sometime around mid February to start the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 18z GFS has a 1043mb high that builds in and pretty much keeps the cold pumped down across the Eastern U.S. after Day 6 and up to 174. Let's see what happens beyond this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Differences between 12z and 18z GFS are huge. 18z has no cutoff or seperation of the trough at all in days 6-7. Northern stream dominates and just swings through as one consolidated trough. i.e. dry frontal passage. I am glad that it is the 18z GOOFY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Looks like a healthy prolonged NWFS event in the NC high country on the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I don't post alot but there are a thousand birds hootin and hollerin in a few trees in my yard, So they must be discussing a pattern change or something. You may have a serious problem if your not exaggerating your estimate. Several flocks of black birds are running flying in the thousands to and from North Carolina to Kentucky this winter. Two days ago it got national attention. I should have reported it earlier this week because the exact same phenomenon in the video below occurred here in Wilkes County last weekend.I have never witnessed anything like it my life. It was super loud and I literary thought the sky was falling or an earthquake was about to strike or something. National Attention Video out of Kentucky http://www.bing.com/...arm%7Cmsn%7C%7C I am not ready to bite on this for things to come winter weather wise. They could be here because of the warm winter. I do monitor the birds behaviors in my backyard before hand on incoming weather systems. But that is usually a day or two before the storm hits. This is occurring well in the advance...so I think it is because of the warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Differences between 12z and 18z GFS are huge. 18z has no cutoff or seperation of the trough at all in days 6-7. Northern stream dominates and just swings through as one consolidated trough. i.e. dry frontal passage. Yep night and day. SE stays dry after that much like the big cold streaks we had last year. It should be interesting to see what the ENS members and mean say. 18z GFS has a 1043mb high that builds in and pretty much keeps the cold pumped down across the Eastern U.S. after Day 6 and up to 174. Let's see what happens beyond this point. Pretty much nothing lol...just cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Just as the cold tries to let up between Day 10 and 13, another shot comes in and sticks around up to 336. Definitely not a warm look in the latter of the frames but no storm sadly. Course as some have already stated, there's no need to try to focus on one particular system. What matters is how the overall pattern evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I would prefer the 18z over the12z. 12z might have had temp issues and if not would have been a major ice storm. 18z is much colder and does show some light snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It starts dropping 1040 highs on us out of Canada, and it becomes a matter of time before it drops one on some moisture, and sure enough at the end it drops one on a forming gulf low. That's the kind of stuff I've been missing on the models, and now for the last few days it has started to show some interesting scenarios in the lr....finally. Just a chance for something..all we want is a chance, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It starts dropping 1040 highs on us out of Canada, and it becomes a matter of time before it drops one on some moisture, and sure enough at the end it drops one on a forming gulf low. That's the kind of stuff I've been missing on the models, and now for the last few days it has started to show some interesting scenarios in the lr....finally. Just a chance for something..all we want is a chance, lol. Tony That seems to be a theme that I am noticing. One high builds and supplies the cold for the East and then just as it departs, another one takes its place so we really don't get to warm up much at all and if so, it appears to only be for a brief period before it happens again. On this run unfortunately it's dry for the most part but at least the cold is doing its best to stay put after it settles, save for a couple of frames of it getting pushed north again. You would think at some point with enough available cold air that we will eventually get a system that undercuts the western ridge and takes the southern route in a way that provides plenty of widespread wintry precipitation or maybe making a turn to go up the coast to prolong the event, or perhaps develop a gulf low taking a favorable track. Whether or not that is realized in the latter remains in question but the longer we hold on to the idea of a longer-lasting cold look, the less doubt there is about the pattern changing and may come into play for what could be a rockin' February and possibly even March with any system that holds good potential. We all need to take this with careful consideration and try not to get too excited about anything as of now, especially with any forecasted storm that would threaten our region with snow and/or ice. Oh to dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z Euro OP and ensemble indice forecasts look pretty nice toward the end as the +PNA ridge builds. Even went out of their way to show a developing -NAO/-AO. Not sure if I buy the -NAO/-AO getting stronger like it is on the OP though. http://raleighwx.ame...mwfindices.html http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html That would be a sweet change It starts dropping 1040 highs on us out of Canada, and it becomes a matter of time before it drops one on some moisture, and sure enough at the end it drops one on a forming gulf low. That's the kind of stuff I've been missing on the models, and now for the last few days it has started to show some interesting scenarios in the lr....finally. Just a chance for something..all we want is a chance, lol. Tony You are right...all we want is just a chance It seems the 18z Goofy took my rain chances away again....sigh......but it was nice to look at the earlier runs today and see some potential for wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'll take this member from the 18z and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Does the 00z continue the trend and show us a threat? It'll be rolling in about ten minutes and I'll be up for the play by play. Let's see if we can keep the mojo going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Does the 00z continue the trend and show us a threat? It'll be rolling in about ten minutes and I'll be up for the play by play. Let's see if we can keep the mojo going! Woooo!!! Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Does the 00z continue the trend and show us a threat? It'll be rolling in about ten minutes and I'll be up for the play by play. Let's see if we can keep the mojo going! Let's reel this one in! Looking forward to see if the trend continues or gets better regarding our potential pattern change... Btw, check out the banter thread if you haven't done so yet. Made a nice response to what you said over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Let's reel this one in! Looking forward to see if the trend continues or gets better regarding our potential pattern change... Btw, check out the banter thread if you haven't done so yet. Made a nice response to what you said over there. Just got to get a little more cold air to drop in, if so it might be game on after tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z could get interesting. At 132 colder air is dropping down into TN..looks like a frontal passage but might turn into something more. We'll see where it goes. Has a different look than 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 @144 light snow across northern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Ridge still being depicted to build a good bit back west. Cold air beginning to filter in behind the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 The MA is going to love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Going to be a big winter storm on GFS for MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Big shot of cold air at 156. Like the look of this one, but alas it's just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 What is ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 What is ma Mid Atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We need a solution b/n gfs and the euro. High slides in to late on the gfs this run. A slower wave would be better, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 What is ma Mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 @174 there is a scattered snow shower look...but might be too light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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