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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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Been following CAD/zr events too long. 1040 hp as depicted on the 12z gfs is easily zr from the triad over to the southern foothills or thereabouts. Even the system last weekend which wasn't even supposed to be close, I woke up to 31 degrees and some ice on the deck, but no real precip. Models had been showing mid to upper 30's at best. I think we topped out at about 33. Just goes to show that the hp in the right place, even in a warm pattern puts cad areas on the cusp. It has just been a VERY long time since we've had hp over the NE vs. just off the coast and sliding out.

TW

Same here, I've lived in the Northern Piedmont of NC for 45 years. Last weekend's system was weak compared to what the GFS is showing for next weekend and therefore allowed the cold air at the surface to fall to or slightly below freezing. The system being depicted on the 12z today is much stronger and would push an overwhelming amount of warm air aloft which would warm even the surface temperatures with any decent rate of precipitation falling. I just don't see a threat of anything significant this far out. That being said, it is still a week away and probably will not resemble anything close to this by the time we get there.

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Already, the Euro is different than the 0z run, a piece of energy pops a low off the coast of NY and gives the NE a solid winter storm, but the good thing is that's pulling down some colder air. If anything the ridge out west looks taller, big piece of energy hanging back over CA.

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at 120 the ecmwf has a nice snowfall in the tristate area with a pretty strong system (for this season). And the energy dropping out west digs toward the Southwest 4 corners area. The cold out west and the plains is paltry. Now we'll see how much of the cold air in Canada begins to come south (or not) and what type of high pressure building develops.

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the high has built to 1032 north of Lake Superior and the eastern Canada system is pretty strong. A pos. tilt cutoff near El Paso at 144. Any cold air that gets into the system on this run will have to come with the Lakes wave , as the sw system is not a cold system, and virtually no cold air in the plains.

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sounds like the Euro is playing to it's bias with a cuttoff near El Paso, no?

could be, but we've had a lot of those this year and with both models digging energy due south around mddle of next week, it sort of looked like that's where it was headed. I was leaning toward a cutoff but not so far west. Seems the ability to work west this season has definitely been there.

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With the 12z GFS shifting the surface low from the SC coast, which the earlier runs showed, to Northwest Tennessee and now the Euro showing nothing more than a frontal passage next week, I would favor the Euro solution this far out. In a couple of days I would expect the GFS to be showing something very similar to the Euro for the period in question. This Winter has, and will continue to let us down it seems. Fortunately I am not there to actually experience the results of this season so far, I would be in such a state of depression this late in the season without Wintry precipitation. That being said, I am still pulling for you guys back home and my dedication keeps me up late at night to watch the 0z models roll in each day. It's almost 3am here so off to bed. Hope tomorrow will look more promising.

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Basically this run has the northern stream bypassing the southwest/Tx system until around day 9 when it begins to move out. It shows the tight vortex north of Maine being very strong, so there could be damming in the east around day 10 if the system comes east. At day 10 there was a small pocket of 0 at 850 in ne GA region with incoming moisture and a CAD look, but its day 10. Central Canada is brutally cold thanks to the big western Canada ridging. Wait 12 hours and we'll have a different look. 6 for the GFS.

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Basically this run has the northern stream bypassing the southwest/Tx system until around day 9 when it begins to move out. It shows the tight vortex north of Maine being very strong, so there could be damming in the east around day 10 if the system comes east. At day 10 there was a small pocket of 0 at 850 in ne GA region with incoming moisture and a CAD look, but its day 10. Central Canada is brutally cold thanks to the big western Canada ridging. Wait 12 hours and we'll have a different look. 6 for the GFS.

As always, thanks for the PBP Robert. I for one feel a tinge of excitement (not b/c I think it will snow/ip/zr) because today shows a bonfire pattern change. I am curious to see what analog matches from here.

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going past day 4 or so of this season when the models predict changes is a risky thing. No different than this one, and I'm not so sure this run is right or the GFS. I'm sure we'll see all scenarios show up next couple of days before they get a handle on it. Here's day 8 through 10 with the cold airmass that breaks off of the main cold in Siberia. It begins hurtling quickly toward the northern plains or Lakes....some -40 degree air.

post-38-0-28764600-1327777575.gif

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going past day 4 or so of this season when the models predict changes is a risky thing. No different than this one, and I'm not so sure this run is right or the GFS. I'm sure we'll see all scenarios show up next couple of days before they get a handle on it. Here's day 8 through 10 with the cold airmass that breaks off of the main cold in Siberia. It begins hurtling quickly toward the northern plains or Lakes....some -40 degree air.

post-38-0-28764600-1327777575.gif

Robert,

Would you say tha we are in the throes of a pattern change? Thanks

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Just checked out the 12z gfs ensembles and for the first time all winter I got excited about a wx model... Unreal +PNA through the entire run. Probably the highest PNA signal since 02/03. Unreal look. It's rare to see it show up that consistently and dramatically on the ensembles. That pattern would undoubtably produce multiple opportunites through february.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

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Just checked out the 12z gfs ensembles and for the first time all winter I got excited about a wx model... Unreal +PNA through the entire run. Probably the highest PNA signal since 02/03. Unreal look. It's rare to see it show up that consistently and dramatically on the ensembles. That pattern would undoubtably produce multiple opportunites through february.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Brandon,

I know I have been harping about 1960, but I cannot get over the similarities between now and then. Especially with this statement about the PNA signal. It is like we are going from one extreme to another ala 1960. I sure do wish we could experience that in our lifetime.

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Brandon,

I know I have been harping about 1960, but I cannot get over the similarities between now and then. Especially with this statement about the PNA signal. It is like we are going from one extreme to another ala 1960. I sure do wish we could experience that in our lifetime.

I'll have to go back and look at 1960.

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Yep big time CAD for next week. This could get interesting boys.

Not the news I want to here. The last time I had big CAD events here (2004 and 2005 I believe) my power was out for a week. After that, you never want to see another ice storm ever again. Personally, i'd rather have 33 and rain than ZR.

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I'll have to go back and look at 1960.

You will like reading that one. Robert and the NOAA did a case study on the Feb/March of 1960. The winter was slightly above average with some warm days through mid-Feb. From Feb 13th through Mar 19th, all hell broke loose and it was snowing once, sometimes twice a week in a widespread fashion across the SE. It is hard FOR ME to tell, but I think there was an AK vortex like we have experienced this season, similar PNA set and the NAO was not negative (I could have read into that wrong though).

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Not the news I want to here. The last time I had big CAD events here (2004 and 2005 I believe) my power was out for a week. After that, you never want to see another ice storm ever again. Personally, i'd rather have 33 and rain than ZR.

One would hope if it did pan out the precip would be sleet as opposed to freezing rain, so it wouldn't accumulate as much on trees and power lines.

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Things do look interesting. But something in the 12z run does not look right to me.

Here is the surface conditions at hour 192

2012012812_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_192.gif

The freezing line is all the way up in New York. I can see signs of a barrier jet, i'm just puzzled to why not alot of cold air is funneling in. I guess future runs will decided the fate of this system.

The 540 line in New York is the 1000mb - 500mb thickness. Raw GFS output at hr192 has surface temps in the mid-30's in central North Carolina, and upper 20's at Roanoke, VA

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From DT's FB page...he talks about the Day 11-15 Euro ENS....

The 11-15 day EURO ensemble is bullish for cold and for the FIRST TIME the Euro ensemble is SPLITTING the huge PV north of Alaska into 2 pieces.... and one of those pieces DOES slide into Eastern Canada....

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12z Euro OP and ensemble indice forecasts look pretty nice toward the end as the +PNA ridge builds. Even went out of their way to show a developing -NAO/-AO. Not sure if I buy the -NAO/-AO getting stronger like it is on the OP though.

http://raleighwx.ame...mwfindices.html

http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html

I want to let you know that I appreciate your contributions!

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