dsaur Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Yep big time CAD for next week. This could get interesting boys. Yep, I've been thinking if anything came this far south early in Feb. it might be the zmonster. But with that low up in Ga. it will just be the waa monster. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If you look at the setup though, it's probably bad well into the state, possibly down to CLT. That 1040+ high means business. When I see you posting, something I amiss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 If you look at the setup though, it's probably bad well into the state, possibly down to CLT. That 1040+ high means business. Yep especially since GFS always down plays the temps....well we wanted winter weather, we might get the worst kind we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What amazes me is how the surface low went from being off the SC coast six hours ago on the 6z GFS to Northwest Tennessee on the 12z. This tells me that the odds of a Winter storm next weekend are very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Well it does lOok better. We got plenty of time for it to change.. Each run will look different. I wouldn't trust nothing until its two or three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i think you're posting the 00z run. Yeah, wierd. That pic is from the link on Allan's site for the 12Z run, but it gave me the 00Z data. The frames immediately before and after that one both link to correct 12Z data on his model page. Sorry for the glitch, guys. I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What amazes me is how the surface low went from being off the SC coast six hours ago on the 6z GFS to Northwest Tennessee on the 12z. This tells me that the odds of a Winter storm next weekend are very slim. Actually, it will probably flip-flop a lot. There is still so much time. Besides, these models are still trying to nail down the patten change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 What amazes me is how the surface low went from being off the SC coast six hours ago on the 6z GFS to Northwest Tennessee on the 12z. This tells me that the odds of a Winter storm next weekend are very slim. Models are struggling but it does look like something of interest will happen next week I certainly wouldn't mind if we dodged an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Models are struggling but it does look like something of interest will happen next week I certainly wouldn't mind if we dodged an ice storm Ice storms are incredibly beautiful. I know a lot of people worry about losing power and getting in wrecks, but that can't take away from the sheer beauty of the coating of ice that can cover everything. I wouldn't mind seeing one, and I'm not ashamed to say that I actually might look forward to it. Yes, snow is by far the best type of wintry weather, but ice is quite deserving in its own right. Now, I can sit back and watch the debate over the ethics of liking/disliking ice storms... (And, no, I don't intentionally wish pain or harm on anyone, but I enjoy all facets of winter weather.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 You guys in NC can have your ice storm. I'll be perfectly happy with just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Always love a good ice storm. 1040 high over the lakes northeast would be a lock for ice into the cad regions..... changing to rain as the hp slides out. With no blocking, I think we're threading the needle with the hp and the low over the gulf. Nice to have something somewhat legit to track..... 1st of the winter! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Verbatim at 192 it would be a crippling ice storm for I-40 N. Massive CAD siguature. 1040mb highs over Upstate NY mean business. Now, will it be real? What amazes me is how the surface low went from being off the SC coast six hours ago on the 6z GFS to Northwest Tennessee on the 12z. This tells me that the odds of a Winter storm next weekend are very slim. We will see variability continue. You are dealing with two pieces of energy and potential phasing. You will continue to see lots of changes run to run, especially since this is a week out. And tarheelwx is right, with no real Atlantic blocking, this will have to be timed just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 well i have to say we might have something to watch. a 1040 high is fantastic for a cad. will it happen - prtobably not, sigh lol. however, it is less than 10 days out woo hoo i would love to have a cad to follow - we havent had a good one in nearly 6.5 years. the last one my power went out and i couldnt track online. now i have a smart phone and ipad so bring it on while i wouldnt wish a catastrophic ice storm on anyone, i wouldnt mind a good icing event. they are fun to watch...hopefully the next thing we see on the models (besids the high pressure and moisture) is that the temps start trending DOWN, rather than up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 With no blocking, isn't it fairly certain that the low will cut? I'd love for it to come up the coast vs. up the apps. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Looks like might get february right in my winter forecast. that's about it though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 With no blocking, isn't it fairly certain that the low will cut? I'd love for it to come up the coast vs. up the apps. TW This one will be based on when/ how much/ how quickly the energy phases. Whenever a phase occurs, yes it will turn northeast without blocking......but when that happens depends on the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Things do look interesting. But something in the 12z run does not look right to me. Here is the surface conditions at hour 192 The freezing line is all the way up in New York. I can see signs of a barrier jet, i'm just puzzled to why not alot of cold air is funneling in. I guess future runs will decided the fate of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 This one will be based on when/ how much/ how quickly the energy phases. Whenever a phase occurs, yes it will turn northeast without blocking......but when that happens depends on the phase. So we want a later phase I guess. Anything else to look for? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 At this point, I'll take an epic ice storm. It's been a while since our Honda generator has had a good workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Even with strong high pressure to the North on the 12z, next weekend, at best, looks like a 33 and rain event for the Piedmont of NC. While there is cold air around, it just doesn't look like it's going to be quite cold enough. I think the lack of snow cover in the "normal" places to our North would make a world of difference in this type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I bet the individual ensemble members will be fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I really like the look of the GGEM. There could still be time to get a cutoff in our vicinity, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Need some consistency before commenting on the CAD possibilities. The HP location and strength has been waffling. If the OP GFS were to verify verbatim on the HP then it would most likely be a rain to zr/sleet scenario in most of NC. It actually get's gso/hky down to freezing at the sfc with about .25 of zr which is impressive this far out for a backend wedge situation. I like the idea of a big storm of some kind though with the PNA spiking late next week and the possibility of a cutoff NE of Maine which would provide a confluent zone over the northeast aloft. No doubt this is the best possibility this winter so far, which isn't saying much tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Even with strong high pressure to the North on the 12z, next weekend, at best, looks like a 33 and rain event for the Piedmont of NC. While there is cold air around, it just doesn't look like it's going to be quite cold enough. I think the lack of snow cover in the "normal" places to our North would make a world of difference in this type of set up. Been following CAD/zr events too long. 1040 hp as depicted on the 12z gfs is easily zr from the triad over to the southern foothills or thereabouts. Even the system last weekend which wasn't even supposed to be close, I woke up to 31 degrees and some ice on the deck, but no real precip. Models had been showing mid to upper 30's at best. I think we topped out at about 33. Just goes to show that the hp in the right place, even in a warm pattern puts cad areas on the cusp. It has just been a VERY long time since we've had hp over the NE vs. just off the coast and sliding out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The thought of a true CAD event excites me since it's been so long...6 years. We are more than due imo. Remember how poorly cad's are modeled several days out, how strong and deep the cold air actually gets typically "over performs", let's hope that it's still showing this set up by thursday. IF..and that's a big IF the HP is in the right spot and timing is perfect this could be a big one for a lot of us including parts of georgia. Lookout and Robert and a few others have been saying for a while that this year could be the year for a major CAD event in the south. We've already seen several damming situations with no big HP up north especially a 1040. I wouldn't look at all at where the 850's cut off and the line is drawn right now, way too far out. The signature is there and if it stays the specifics are a long way from being worked out. At least we have something to watch for a few model runs anyway. What model is best at forecasting a CAD situation? I'm thinking it used to be the GFS and Canadian but could be wrong. Ready for Robert's thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Need some consistency before commenting on the CAD possibilities. The HP location and strength has been waffling. If the OP GFS were to verify verbatim on the HP then it would most likely be a rain to zr/sleet scenario in most of NC. It actually get's gso/hky down to freezing at the sfc with about .25 of zr which is impressive this far out for a backend wedge situation. I like the idea of a big storm of some kind though with the PNA spiking late next week and the possibility of a cutoff NE of Maine which would provide a confluent zone over the northeast aloft. No doubt this is the best possibility this winter so far, which isn't saying much tho. Could the cutoff NE or Maine give the same effect as blocking and keep the hp locked in a little longer? As for the warm temps, I think the temps over the northeast and eastern canada are plenty seasonal enough to provide sufficient cold air for wintry precip if the hp is of the strength and position as depicted on the 12z gfs. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Even with strong high pressure to the North on the 12z, next weekend, at best, looks like a 33 and rain event for the Piedmont of NC. While there is cold air around, it just doesn't look like it's going to be quite cold enough. I think the lack of snow cover in the "normal" places to our North would make a world of difference in this type of set up. That's not quite right. The setup shown aloft and the surface on GFS really is ideal for a devastating ice storm. I wouldn't say things work out that way yet since its 180 hours out, but it's classic true CAD to the max with strong (extremely impressive) confluence with a 1040 high parked right under it, and the isobars and moisture axis is perfectly situated for a doozy of an ice storm down to Upper SC and northeast GA. Again I wouldn't call for it since its so far out. The last CAD event in NC was perfectly modeled by GFS once at around 3 days out. No snow cover anywhere, yet temps were around 32 to 36 in much of NC and VA CAD regions last Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 That's not quite right. The setup shown aloft and the surface on GFS really is ideal for a devastating ice storm. I wouldn't say things work out that way yet since its 180 hours out, but it's classic true CAD to the max with strong (extremely impressive) confluence with a 1040 high parked right under it, and the isobars and moisture axis is perfectly situated for a doozy of an ice storm down to Upper SC and northeast GA. Again I wouldn't call for it since its so far out. The last CAD event in NC was perfectly modeled by GFS once at around 3 days out. No snow cover anywhere, yet temps were around 32 to 36 in much of NC and VA CAD regions last Sunday. Agreed people need to look at the overall setup and not specific details this far out. 1040 mb high in the Northeast ridging down the coast and confluence in place is an ice storm. I don't care what the GFS says at this point as far as surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Most GFS solutions have an eastern system but most do not show the typs of CAD the Op does. Lots of things possible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 kind of thought GFS would end up cutting the system off far west. I wouldn't be surprised to see ecmwf begin cutting off too, hopefully in a nice spot. Too far west or north would be rainy about everywhere, except near the center of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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