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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion IV


burgertime

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This is probably the longest we've had such good model agreement on a western ridge/eastern trough this season, so thats some pretty good news that atleast we're heading toward actual colder air. But this could end up being a big eastern storm. It's loaded with potential and the development could occur anywhere from the mid South, Deep South to eastern seaboard. Right now the best odds favor the Carolina coast as ending up with the major cyclone development if there's going to be any, but with so much energy topping the ridge its' hard to say. It's still an extremely unusual setup and we certainly don't get into this kind of flow every year. You can see the second stronger s/w droppng due south from the western Lakes, being pushed by a strengthening surface high. The high takes an unusual track as well , going from north of the Lakes, to the southwest and ending up in the central Plains of Ks, Ne. The baggy trough in Indiana ends up dropping due south and may join forces with the western SC wave or they end up combining somewhere in the Carolinas or just offshore. It's a very messy flow that can be resolved yet, but they've been hinting at this type of scenario a few days now. It would be good for gradual cooling aloft and spotty precip in the Tenn valley to east coast , eventually spots of snow, but nothing terribly organized yet. If the entire process were backed up a few miles that would help develop a much better northern Gulf of mexico wave but right now to me it looks to favor eastern NC development, esp. the Ecmwf model. Tons of potential here, but there is another very strong wave dropping into the northern plains by day 10 that should push the system up the coast or just offshore. Anything is possible from a deep cutoff to a big eastern seaboard snowstorm but we'll have to wait to get a better handle.

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the 6z GFS fully develops the Southeast cutoff. It is cold enough for snow and or ice at times in northern NC, and again west of the Apps, while theres a strong surface low in Ga that goes to the SC coast, with strong damming . Lots of precip with this storm, several inches shown, some of which would be ice and snow in Va , Tn and northern NC and possibly a strong ice storm in the piedmont, but aloft the system gets warmer with time. And its never that cold to begin with.. Still late in the run the rigde pushes north and allows southern stream to undercut, so there is split flow but thats getting out in the time frame I wouldn't trust.

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the 6z GFS fully develops the Southeast cutoff. It is cold enough for snow and or ice at times in northern NC, and again west of the Apps, while theres a strong surface low in Ga that goes to the SC coast, with strong damming . Lots of precip with this storm, several inches shown, some of which would be ice and snow in Va , Tn and northern NC and possibly a strong ice storm in the piedmont, but aloft the system gets warmer with time. And its never that cold to begin with.. Still late in the run the rigde pushes north and allows southern stream to undercut, so there is split flow but thats getting out in the time frame I wouldn't trust.

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Bring it

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Forgive me for the stupid question but ut who is DT? he changes his mind more than the GFS

He is an energy MET from Richmand Va. He use to post on here and Eastern but he has a problem with being tactful. He has his own website if you are interested.... Wxrisk.com. I visit it occasionally but I take what he says with a grain of salt. Basically he says that the GFS is laughable and the PV will stay on the other side of the globe.

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Well there is little doubt that we are heading into a colder pattern in the eastern US. That monster ridge will develop in the western US.....all modeling is on board with that general idea, and have been for several cycles now. Could they be wrong? Sure, but I doubt the general idea of western ridge and eastern trough is incorrect at this point.

As we all know, the details are what matters in terms of popping a winter storm around here. The 6z GFS wound up developing a major winter storm for the Virginias and northwestern NC (at least NW NC.....good CAD would likely lead to some ice further south). But as I am sure all on this board are aware, nothing to get excited about yet.

The 6z GFS phases the energy over AR/LA/MS around Fri night, while the phase is weaker and later on the Euro. But the overall same players are on the field.

Bottom line is that at least we look to be heading into a pattern wherer we have a fighting chance.

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Well there is little doubt that we are heading into a colder pattern in the eastern US. That monster ridge will develop in the western US.....all modeling is on board with that general idea, and have been for several cycles now. Could they be wrong? Sure, but I doubt the general idea of western ridge and eastern trough is incorrect at this point.

As we all know, the details are what matters in terms of popping a winter storm around here. The 6z GFS wound up developing a major winter storm for the Virginias and northwestern NC (at least NW NC.....good CAD would likely lead to some ice further south). But as I am sure all on this board are aware, nothing to get excited about yet.

The 6z GFS phases the energy over AR/LA/MS around Fri night, while the phase is weaker and later on the Euro. But the overall same players are on the field.

Bottom line is that at least we look to be heading into a pattern wherer we have a fighting chance.

Great reality check! For the first potential system (180hrs out), we need to wait until about Tuesday or Wednesday to really start tracking (if it's still there). As of right now I'm most excited about the western ridge and how that will generally affect the SE. As the mets say, the details will come later.

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It is so funny how a lot of people were wanting to clif dive and say "winter cancel". LOL...winter is not over until mid-March. Even if the models are wrong re: the late week storm, there is still plenty of time.

I cliff dived around 10 times this winter. More to come too. But I might have to do some cliff climbing next week.

My gut feeling is if this system does produce winter weather, it will hoist lots of precip type issues. Also, if the Wednesday night through Thursday night system is a washout, then this system will likely just bust and be dry/cold.

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In general, the trough axis looks to be a bit too far east on most modeling for many to my west and southwest, but if we can somehow get a vort to dive almost due south it would potentially put more people in play.

In general the western ridge looks very real so that is exciting. Not much help from the Atlantic, but this type of setup can and HAS worked before.

Hopefully the threat will remain and ramp up as we get closer. The BIGGEST concern I see would yield a fish storm and a dry and cool/cold northwest flow.

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Looks to me like this setup is too complicated for this side of the Apps(west) at this point. But who knows? Looks like maybe MidAtlantic or north to me. As some have said, looks a bit too far east. Have been burned more than once this season - so will wait. Like seeing some talk about the eastern trough. May have a window now for at least something to follow.

Edit: Like the mobile skin...Keeps Safari from crashing.

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We could be heading toward a deep south cutoff similar to 6z GFS , and ecmwf has been leaving so much unconsolidated energy in the mid. Miss. Valley or Tenn valley it's baggy contours and overall looks might support that. We'll see if models head that way. I'd like to see colder air aloft being pushed in just before the potential cutoff or deep trough occurs, but it's a close call as of now. There was a storm early 2000's that evolved similar to this and it ended up being a snow and sleet producer from about Hickory northward up the east coast. The way the pattern has gone this year we'd end up with too much of a cutoff and warmth in the east side. However the cold is dropping from due north, so we haven't had this setup yet this season.

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Dacula - BTW, great web site, great going to see the MJO forecasts.....Looks like most models are heading to phase 7 and hopefully they make it to phase 8. Have we even sniffed phase 8 this year like this?

http://www.daculawea...se_forecast.php

And to answer the other part of your question... in November. Remember when we got cold? 2nd graph of the last 90 days.

http://www.daculawea...m/mjo_phase.php

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