POWERSTROKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I believe we are about to get something real soon, Fun right before Superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hey Falls,the GFS has been hinting at something in that timefrime since yesterday's 12Z run. I doubt that anything wintry will come of it for us but I guess only time will tell. Like you, I'm more interested in what happens after that. Maybe, just maybe, we can thread a needle before mid-February gets here. Your right. If (if) we get anything frozen later next weekend, it would have to fight warm surface temps and warm ground temps. After that, hopefully it will get truly cold....We need established cold (before any storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Your right. If (if) we get anything frozen later next weekend, it would have to fight warm surface temps and warm ground temps. After that, hopefully it will get truly cold....We need established cold (before any storm). It would melt fast however if rates are heavy it will stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man, would I like to believe in the cold in the long range - just brutal. But I'm not biting until that NAO goes negative. Granted, it can get cold when the NAO is positive, but not this winter. It is almost unbelievable that this winter has seem basically the same pattern for the first two months. I see absolutely no reason for the pattern to end for at least the next two weeks. I said less than eight inches of snow at KTRI - I may have to go lower. At least we have had plenty of rain. It will be nice next summer not having to lug the water hose to the garden every night. I'm pretty much switching to gears to spring - seed order is pending and is about time to prep the garden for onions and lettuce. I think we get two weeks of winter at best from Feb 10th to the end of the month. Spring will be late. Summer will be tolerable. Next winter, I think will be awesome if the ENSO goes neutral or slightly positive. I can't stand the thought of a third La Nina winter. Happy Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man, would I like to believe in the cold in the long range - just brutal. But I'm not biting until that NAO goes negative. Granted, it can get cold when the NAO is positive, but not this winter. It is almost unbelievable that this winter has seem basically the same pattern for the first two months. I see absolutely no reason for the pattern to end for at least the next two weeks. I said less than eight inches of snow at KTRI - I may have to go lower. At least we have had plenty of rain. It will be nice next summer not having to lug the water hose to the garden every night. I'm pretty much switching to gears to spring - seed order is pending and is about time to prep the garden for onions and lettuce. I think we get two weeks of winter at best from Feb 10th to the end of the month. Spring will be late. Summer will be tolerable. Next winter, I think will be awesome if the ENSO goes neutral or slightly positive. I can't stand the thought of a third La Nina winter. Happy Friday. This is the year of the extended spring I can only hope that this summer will be tolerable, and unlike the past two summer's I have endured. Meanwhile Goofy continues to tease with the long range rain, only to have it disappear once it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man, would I like to believe in the cold in the long range - just brutal. But I'm not biting until that NAO goes negative. Granted, it can get cold when the NAO is positive, but not this winter. It is almost unbelievable that this winter has seem basically the same pattern for the first two months. I see absolutely no reason for the pattern to end for at least the next two weeks. I said less than eight inches of snow at KTRI - I may have to go lower. At least we have had plenty of rain. It will be nice next summer not having to lug the water hose to the garden every night. I'm pretty much switching to gears to spring - seed order is pending and is about time to prep the garden for onions and lettuce. I think we get two weeks of winter at best from Feb 10th to the end of the month. Spring will be late. Summer will be tolerable. Next winter, I think will be awesome if the ENSO goes neutral or slightly positive. I can't stand the thought of a third La Nina winter. Happy Friday. Game on! I will be surprised if you don't more than 8 inches of snow. I also think there will be snow chances well into March this year... Just from some things i've been reading, and I really believe the pattern got to change sometime soon? Just hope it's not to late!!! I'm with you on your thoughts about next winter too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Woohooo..lol accublunder on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Forgive me for the stupid question but ut who is DT? he changes his mind more than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z Canadian GGEM Ensemble has negative 850mb temp anomalies from hr192 through hr384. Quite a bit of consistency showing on the western ridge. We'll have to see if it actually delivers...and if we can find a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Game on! I will be surprised if you don't more than 8 inches of snow. I also think there will be snow chances well into March this year... Just from some things i've been reading, and I really believe the pattern got to change sometime soon? Just hope it's not to late!!! I'm with you on your thoughts about next winter too.... Like many, I believe the pattern will flip. But we are going to need some truly good fortune to get some decent snow due to the window of winter getting ready to rapidly close. But...I like your thinking! The NAO should give us a heads-up. What a winter it's been in Alaska - epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z Canadian GGEM Ensemble has negative 850mb temp anomalies from hr192 through hr384. Quite a bit of consistency showing on the western ridge. We'll have to see if it actually delivers...and if we can find a storm. Thanks for the GGEM update, that would certainly be much more than just a quick shot of cold.....mentioned many times before need sustained cold, hope the trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 @114 You can see the ridge trying to form out west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The GFS is still digging a strong s/w due south, maybe southwest breaking off the eastern Canada wave at 168 hours, and by 180 it looks to be tightening up or about to close off in southern Alabama. A very interesting look. We don't normally get storms in this kind of flow though, so this is very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 should of rephrased that. We don't normally get flows like this. At 186 it almost develops a cutoff that would generate a surface low in the Panhandle or GA coast. Very close to a nice Ga, Carolinas storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The GFS is still digging a strong s/w due south, maybe southwest breaking off the eastern Canada wave at 168 hours, and by 180 it looks to be tightening up or about to close off in southern Alabama. A very interesting look. We don't normally get storms in this kind of flow though, so this is very unusual. Dig baby dig. @162 my jaw dropped... man it is really digging and look how tall that ridge is out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The cold air is very thin and minimal to work with though. The models atleast agree on some big western ridging but timing and tracks of shortwaves cresting that ridge will not be properly modeled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The cold air is very thin and minimal to work with though. The models atleast agree on some big western ridging but timing and tracks of shortwaves cresting that ridge will not be properly modeled yet. At this point most important thing is agreement on the western ridge........and not in fantasy land either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 its too far out to bank on, but theres a chance a split flow regime comes of this pattern. Don't know if we'll be cold enough to make an overrunning winter event, but the big picture shows the signs of classic split flow, something we don't get much of in Nina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 384 hour map isn't bad looking at all. Of course, it only has 1/1000th of a snowball's chance in the SE US this winter of verifying, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Forgive me for the stupid question but ut who is DT? he changes his mind more than the GFS He is a Pro Met out of Roanoke VA area. He is ian interesting Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The GFS is still digging a strong s/w due south, maybe southwest breaking off the eastern Canada wave at 168 hours, and by 180 it looks to be tightening up or about to close off in southern Alabama. A very interesting look. We don't normally get storms in this kind of flow though, so this is very unusual. Correct me If I am wrong Robert, but is this look on the model similar to 1960 with the ridge flexing its muscle and the AK vortex moving to or around the Aluetians? I guess my question is what is it showing regarding the AK Vortex? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 should of rephrased that. We don't normally get flows like this. At 186 it almost develops a cutoff that would generate a surface low in the Panhandle or GA coast. Very close to a nice Ga, Carolinas storm there. If you slice it down the middle (based on THIS RUN) then it could be a "double barreled" low (which we would not want because of lack of cold air). Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 00z CMC continues to dig that trough deep into the south starting around next weekend and going through the end of the run around 240 with some energy diving down the backside. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro 192: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro keeps digging the cold nicely down through the SE at 216. http://img208.images...mp850mb216d.gif 240: It looks like it lets up a little but with a 1040 high building into the Northern Plain states, I would guess that will aid in another pump of colder air. I know; it's usually not good to try to extrapolate what happens beyond the end of a model run in some cases but that's what it seems to suggest IMO. Would be nice if that Atlantic system it's showing was further southwest. Overall, it builds a pretty big ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 0Z Ukie at 144 ridge further West with trough dropping into four corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro ensembles are all over the place after 120 hours. All show the ridge west/trough east but with a ton of different solutions. Most are less amplified than the Op but a few are the same or a bit more. So it still looks like colder weather in the east, but beyond that, anybody's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 looks better than it has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 looks better than it has been Agreed...time for a few to back away from the cliff for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Something is going too give sooner or later! It is good to see some other models show a blend of certain mechanisms that ultimatly provide cold/wintry solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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