Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 nice work Bob...my analogs say cold, but I am leaning warm.. I totally agree. I'm not smart enough to understand the whys, but it's pretty clear that the cold air has been pushed to the other side of the globe this winter. It's quite astounding really. I was digging into to Europe's winter stats this year and wow, they have had one for the books. It's intriguing that all the closest enso analogs point to a cool march but enso appears to be getting trumped this year. Very persistent pattern this year with an uber +nao. The nao monthlies for Nov-Jan have been 1.36, 2.52 (winter record since 1950), and 1.17 for Jan. Feb is a lock for a + monthly reading. I learned something important this year. You can look at the ao, enso, mjo, epo, wpo and pna all you want but when the nao is locked solid +, don't expect much. On paper, mid-jan through mid-feb look like we "should" have had a decent period of winter but the reality is the opposite. We had a pronounced period of a -ao and +pna during the stretch but no cold or snow to show for it. It's also unsusual to have a solid -ao and +nao. I'll post those stats when I'm done but it's a fairly uncommon occurance (and one I hope doesn't happen again for like 20 years or so. lol). The nao appears to be the decision maker while the other teleconnections play more supporting roles. At least this year has shown that to be true. If we want to throw aside all enso analogs and just use similar nao years there are a couple that stand out: 82-83 93-94 94-95 (best match) 99-00 04-05 When you pull the March composite, it looks like this: Interesting huh? This map looks pretty much like our entire winter. ENSO would argue for a cool March. No question about that but when you look at the NAO it paints a very different picture. It's been a stubborn beast this year and pretty much cancelled winter. I think the smarter play for me would be to reverse my call for us and go cold for europe in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Hurricane Guy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It is my belief that March will come in less above normal than February, albeit still above normal. I don't see anything that leads me to believe we will see big heat in march, 80+, for any length of time. I suspect we will have some cold shots that lead to a few days below normal but as quick as they come in they will depart. Sounds like this "winter" doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Two years means nothing. Here's the last 10 years (2002 through 2011) compared to the 1981-2010 normals: DCA is +0.44 F compared to normal over the last 10 years. If you feel compelled to compare it to the old 1971-2000 normals, DCA is +1.09 F. That plot is a bit misleading because the '81-'10 avg is skewed by the inclusion of 9 years of data from the "warmer" period. The '71 - '00 is the better comparison, and does in fact show a significant difference in "normal" temps, albeit it's not 2-3F. Would love to see a plot that compares these two data sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 That plot is a bit misleading because the '81-'10 avg is skewed by the inclusion of 9 years of data from the "warmer" period. The '71 - '00 is the better comparison, and does in fact show a significant difference in "normal" temps, albeit it's not 2-3F. Would love to see a plot that compares these two data sets. 1) That's why I included the DCA anomaly using the 71-00 normals. 2) The argument he is using is based on the last two years of data, and only one of those years was included in the new normals. 3) For your entertainment, the map using the old normals: The region as a whole is about 1F warmer, compared to about 0.5 warmer based on the new normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 1) That's why I included the DCA anomaly using the 71-00 normals. 2) The argument he is using is based on the last two years of data, and only one of those years was included in the new normals. 3) For your entertainment, the map using the old normals: The region as a whole is about 1F warmer, compared to about 0.5 warmer based on the old normals. Thanks for that plot, that is exactly what I was interested to see. What astounds me is not the magnitude of the warming, but its geographic scope. Almost the entire continent (at least what is shown of it) has warmed, and the most significant warming seems to nose down from NE Canada through the Lakes - the warmer anomolies somehow skipping the OV, and then parks right over our heads. I guess I should start looking for property in those tiny patches of NW and ENE North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This is just me, but from a purely "natural balance" stand point...I could see March very easily being chilly and rainy much like 2009, April warm and drier (possibly early heat wave?), and May a little more normal with some heat in the latter part. But that's just me. A big analogue I'm looking at is 2009. That one just really stands out to me, especially with the way ENSO is expected to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.