Looking Ahead to Spring 2012

[Ellinwood]

That plot is a bit misleading because the '81-'10 avg is skewed by the inclusion of 9 years of data from the "warmer" period. The '71 - '00 is the better comparison, and does in fact show a significant difference in "normal" temps, albeit it's not 2-3F. Would love to see a plot that compares these two data sets.

1) That's why I included the DCA anomaly using the 71-00 normals.

2) The argument he is using is based on the last two years of data, and only one of those years was included in the new normals.

3) For your entertainment, the map using the old normals:

The region as a whole is about 1F warmer, compared to about 0.5 warmer based on the new normals.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1) That's why I included the DCA anomaly using the 71-00 normals.

2) The argument he is using is based on the last two years of data, and only one of those years was included in the new normals.

3) For your entertainment, the map using the old normals:

The region as a whole is about 1F warmer, compared to about 0.5 warmer based on the old normals.

Thanks for that plot, that is exactly what I was interested to see. What astounds me is not the magnitude of the warming, but its geographic scope. Almost the entire continent (at least what is shown of it) has warmed, and the most significant warming seems to nose down from NE Canada through the Lakes - the warmer anomolies somehow skipping the OV, and then parks right over our heads.

I guess I should start looking for property in those tiny patches of NW and ENE North Dakota.

[SoCoWx]

This is just me, but from a purely "natural balance" stand point...I could see March very easily being chilly and rainy much like 2009, April warm and drier (possibly early heat wave?), and May a little more normal with some heat in the latter part. But that's just me.

A big analogue I'm looking at is 2009. That one just really stands out to me, especially with the way ENSO is expected to go.