Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ^ no Debbie downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Debbie downer I'm honestly surprised he didn't say "meh" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Debbie downer EF-5 tornado cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It seems like in Nina March/April you either get late season snow and/or crazy wind/rain/severe events. So maybe the weather won't be that boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 EF-5 tornado cancel. we're due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm honestly surprised he didn't say "meh" it's not really even worth a meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 These things popped up out of nowhere. Couldn't resist snapping a pic. Spring is a fun time to take closeups. I picked up a cybershot wx9 16mp for xmas. Excellent compact camera. Blows away my canon powershot. I snapped the pic with intelligent auto sharp focus and blur reduction. Diggin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 60 degrees today, I haven't been wearing my jacket lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Great pic, Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Great pic, Bob! Thanks! I'm falling in love with the new camera. I've been a canon owner for as long as I can remember. I have a nice rebel slr that takes smokin photos but it's a pain to haul around. The cybershot was only $130. The pic quality is stunning and I haven't even messed around with manual settings yet. My powershot struggled bad with indoor low light stuff but the cybershot excels there too. I'm going to have fun this spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 That's an excellent pic bob....since getting an iphone 4s, i've become lazy with using my other cameras...takes ok pics, but it's such a useful all in one device (phone, camera, gps, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I've been looking at some analogs and pulled a small dataset to try and predict spring temps this year. A couple things caught my eye so far. Indications are for a waning Nina through the spring months. I'm really not sure if this is going to happen but assuming it does, I found a couple good years for comparison. The majority of Nina's have sustained cold pac ocean temps through the spring months so I didn't include any of them in my research. I used very simple parameters for identifying decent matches. I pulled all Nina years where FMA tri-monthly was -.5 or warming. Seemed like a decent guess as to what happens this year. Here's what I came up with: 1957- 3rd year fading nina 1965- 1st year fading nina 1972- 2nd year fading nina 2001- 3rd year fading nina 2009- enso neutral fading 2009 obviously doesn't perfectly fit but I think it is a good ideal to include it because 2007-08 was a Nina and 08-09 was pretty close to a nina. DJF tri-monthly in 08-09 was -.8 and it slowly faded from there. I pulled temp composites for the March - May timframe and here's how the analogs shake out for the whole period: To narrow down the months a little better, I also pulled each one individually: Interesting March map huh? It's pretty much the opposite of what Wes put in his article. I compared the analogs and put them up against my +AO dataset that I worked on earlier this year. There was only one match and the was 1972. It's actually a pretty good match for couple of reasons. If I had to put the most weight on a single analog it would be 1972. Here is what March of 1972 looks like temp wise: It's a small dataset so you can't really rely much on the findings but there was a defined temp pattern within the analog years so there is some merit. I'll say the odds of a cooler than normal march around here are higher than I thought. If I had to make a call for the month I would say normal to slight below normal but that is based on some relatively simple analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I've been looking at some analogs and pulled a small dataset to try and predict spring temps this year. A couple things caught my eye so far. Indications are for a waning Nina through the spring months. I'm really not sure if this is going to happen but assuming it does, I found a couple good years for comparison. The majority of Nina's have sustained cold pac ocean temps through the spring months so I didn't include any of them in my research. I used very simple parameters for identifying decent matches. I pulled all Nina years where FMA tri-monthly was -.5 or warming. Seemed like a decent guess as to what happens this year. Here's what I came up with: 1957- 3rd year fading nina 1965- 1st year fading nina 1972- 2nd year fading nina 2001- 3rd year fading nina 2009- enso neutral fading 2009 obviously doesn't perfectly fit but I think it is a good ideal to include it because 2007-08 was a Nina and 08-09 was pretty close to a nina. DJF tri-monthly in 08-09 was -.8 and it slowly faded from there. I pulled temp composites for the March - May timframe and here's how the analogs shake out for the whole period: To narrow down the months a little better, I also pulled each one individually: Interesting March map huh? It's pretty much the opposite of what Wes put in his article. I compared the analogs and put them up against my +AO dataset that I worked on earlier this year. There was only one match and the was 1972. It's actually a pretty good match for couple of reasons. If I had to put the most weight on a single analog it would be 1972. Here is what March of 1972 looks like temp wise: It's a small dataset so you can't really rely much on the findings but there was a defined temp pattern within the analog years so there is some merit. I'll say the odds of a cooler than normal march around here are higher than I thought. If I had to make a call for the month I would say normal to slight below normal but that is based on some relatively simple analysis. I think your anlaysis is the best one put forward and the analogs back it up. I've heard March 2011 thrown around by Don and I believe that was normal to slightly below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 March will be warm. I'm currently thinking around +2 to +3, with warm risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 March will be warm. I'm currently thinking around +2 to +3, with warm risks. It's very hard to go against persistence. March will prob end up being warm. The only way we end up below normal is if it's a wet and dreary month or some sort of longwave pattern sets up where canadian air can infiltrate the east. The former is much more likely than the latter. If we continue the persistent pac zonal flow then +2 or warmer will be very easy. One thing that skews the anomoly during pac zonal is warmer lows vs warmer highs. Hard to get good radiational cooling without clear skies and dry air. Neither of which are persistent in a zonal regime. I'm really only making the call based on analogs and that's precarious to say the least. However, if we do end up cooler you heard it here first. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 March will be warm. I'm currently thinking around +2 to +3, with warm risks. Music to my ears, especially on days like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I've heard March 2011 thrown around by Don and I believe that was normal to slightly below normal. 2011 is only the leading, but not sole, analog for March. Overall, I'm thinking Spring (March-May) 2012 will be milder than normal in the Mid-Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 2011 is only the leading, but not sole, analog for March. Overall, I'm thinking Spring (March-May) 2012 will be milder than normal in the Mid-Atlantic region. As I said before 2 or 3 above normal is the new normal, can't go wrong with that. The trend is that way and I don't see anything changing for awhile, in fact if you use that as a guideline you will be right over 80% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 As I said before 2 or 3 above normal is the new normal, can't go wrong with that. The trend is that way and I don't see anything changing for awhile, in fact if you use that as a guideline you will be right over 80% of the time. NO IT IS NOT. Stop saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 2011 is only the leading, but not sole, analog for March. Overall, I'm thinking Spring (March-May) 2012 will be milder than normal in the Mid-Atlantic region. Don, thanks for popping in. I just read the meat and bones of the main thread. Good stuff. I get so hung up in the subforum that I don't pop into the good discussion in the main forum enough. I especially like your posts and I've learned quite a bit from you over the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 As I said before 2 or 3 above normal is the new normal, can't go wrong with that. The trend is that way and I don't see anything changing for awhile, in fact if you use that as a guideline you will be right over 80% of the time. I'm with Ellinwood...what are you talking about? The average is the average. If 2-3 above was the new "normal" then we would be having average temperatures. We are just in a mild period probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 NO IT IS NOT. Stop saying that. Well look at the past 2 years and with the enso state and no blocking. I believe 20 of the last 24 months have been above average, things may change by late summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 As I said before 2 or 3 above normal is the new normal, can't go wrong with that. The trend is that way and I don't see anything changing for awhile, in fact if you use that as a guideline you will be right over 80% of the time. That exaggerates the magnitude of observed warming that has taken place. Moreover, the observed temperatures changes have not been uniform. Finally, if one is trying to forecast nationwide or continentwide or globally, there typically are at least some areas where cool anomalies are present on a daily, weekly, monthly, or seasonal basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Well look at the past 2 years and with the enso state and no blocking. I believe 20 of the last 24 months have been above average, things may change by late summer. Two years means nothing. Here's the last 10 years (2002 through 2011) compared to the 1981-2010 normals: DCA is +0.44 F compared to normal over the last 10 years. If you feel compelled to compare it to the old 1971-2000 normals, DCA is +1.09 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Trees have started to bloom the last couple days. The purple "plums" are coming out and the bradford pears are starting to stir. Hopefully winter's over. I need to get my winter tires off my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm with Ellinwood...what are you talking about? The average is the average. If 2-3 above was the new "normal" then we would be having average temperatures. We are just in a mild period probably. Quite a long "mild period" for BWI... Assuming we finish this month above average (which almost looks certain we will), the last 13 months (and 22 of the last 24 months) have finished with above average temperatures. Not to mention the hottest summer ever (2010), the hottest month ever (July 2011), most number of 90+ degree days ever (2010), numerous daily record highs broken in the last 24 months, and now one of the warmest/least snowiest winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Two years means nothing. Here's the last 10 years (2002 through 2011) compared to the 1981-2010 normals: DCA is +0.44 F compared to normal over the last 10 years. If you feel compelled to compare it to the old 1971-2000 normals, DCA is +1.09 F. I agree this is a recent trend but with no blocking and a bad pacific (unless one or the other changes) we will remain above normal and I realize for summer that does'nt mean the same as winter so it does'nt mean if we're still stuck in this pattern it will equate to a warmer outcome by then. It's just that we seem at least in the east to be getting warmer, especially in the cities. The difference between suburbs with elevation and the cities regarding snowfall is quite noticeable this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Sping has spung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 nice work Bob...my analogs say cold, but I am leaning warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'll say the odds of a cooler than normal march around here are higher than I thought. With all due respect, my sense is that a milder than median March is the more likely prospect. Why? How long has it been since we have had a cold air mass with staying power? The persistent pattern has been a return to +AO and neutral or +NAO along with zonal flow and unsustained blocking. Even if we get a significant polar airmass, moderation will be dominant as there is no snowpack, soil temperatures are mild and bays/ocean are non-frozen. Simply put, we've had three seasons; summer, autumn/late-autumn and then early-spring/spring. If winter is defined in the mid-Atlantic as: 1. small and moderate ponds freezing over if even for a few days 2. ice and snow pack for 5-10 days sustained 3. more than five overnight lows at the major airports below 20 degrees with more than one low below 15 degrees well...we didn't have winter. Admittedly those bullet points are arbitrary but worth some thought. Here is the consensus for March; best of luck with your cool call but don't bet the morgage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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