North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Typically spring coming out of a La Nina winter would mean more severe... but this hasn't been a regular Nina. To get more severe, one typically looks for a pattern that would allow for more upper-level cold air to come into the region via the polar jet, with a "clashing" of air masses (continental Polar from Canada vs. Maritime tropical from the Gulf of Mexico) over the region. La Ninas usually allow the polar jet to dip down from western Canada into the central and eastern US during the winter and early spring. However, this year the cold air has been locked up in Canada along with the polar jet, so I'm not sure if severe season will be booming around here unless we can get a pattern change that allows the polar jet to push further south. Thanks Mark, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Had some time to dig into stats a bit. I pulled a list of most second year Ninas and all Ninas that averaged -1.0 or less in the DFJ monthlies. Not a perfect data set here but not a bad one either. I got a little excited when I saw the temp gradient set up in April. That has a better chance of severe look to me (any thoughts Ellinwood?). Could be wrong. Below normal precip anom isn't much of a signal. We average plenty of precip in April. Half inch below normal isn't much. March is interesting overall. Pretty clear cold signal in the middle of the country and pretty wet on the EC. Rodney S, zwyts, or Ian, can one of you guys pull the Mar snowfall data for the years selected? I have additional years that are decent enso analogs but I didn't include them because the Nina was too strong and I already had some second year nina's in the data set that exceeded my -1.0 baseline. My guesses or interpretations of all this stuff are always based on what I think the "odds" are. Kinda like if I had to place a wager on what the weather will be. My wager would be on a colder and wetter than normal march and a temp battleground april with good boomers but what the heck do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Had some time to dig into stats a bit. I pulled a list of most second year Ninas and all Ninas that averaged -1.0 or less in the DFJ monthlies. Not a perfect data set here but not a bad one either. I got a little excited when I saw the temp gradient set up in April. That has a better chance of severe look to me (any thoughts Ellinwood?). Could be wrong. Below normal precip anom isn't much of a signal. We average plenty of precip in April. Half inch below normal isn't much. March is interesting overall. Pretty clear cold signal in the middle of the country and pretty wet on the EC. Rodney S, zwyts, or Ian, can one of you guys pull the Mar snowfall data for the years selected? I have additional years that are decent enso analogs but I didn't include them because the Nina was too strong and I already had some second year nina's in the data set that exceeded my -1.0 baseline. My guesses or interpretations of all this stuff are always based on what I think the "odds" are. Kinda like if I had to place a wager on what the weather will be. My wager would be on a colder and wetter than normal march and a temp battleground april with good boomers but what the heck do I know. The regular Nina analogs would recommend an above average severe weather season, but there is probably going to be a lingering warm signal from the winter that will degrade the cold/warm gradient across the U.S., so I'm not that confident we'll see the more active spring (unless we can get a pattern change and develop the temp gradient). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The regular Nina analogs would recommend an above average severe weather season, but there is probably going to be a lingering warm signal from the winter that will degrade the cold/warm gradient across the U.S., so I'm not that confident we'll see the more active spring (unless we can get a pattern change and develop the temp gradient). Yea, this has been one tough year to understand. I don't think any lr forecasts saw Dec-Jan coming. Feb isn't shaping up too hot either. I think we probably have an equal chance at a distinct pattern change in Mar-Apr that would basically "look good if it was winter" kinda pattern. We'll see I guess. I don't like wet aprils at all becuase I fish alot for trophy stripers in the bay. Rainy springs screw it all up so I always root for dry. We can get great storms in a dry regime though. Probably moreso than a wet one becuase the atmophere is less stable for convection. Bring on the se ridge and canadian cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 La Nina means horrific tornado season - likely 2011 all over again, maybe far worse. Storm chasers will be soaring all over the place come late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I hope we see out first 80's in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 La nina's usually have cool springs so I could see it turning cold and stormy in March which will bring snow but by then it may be too late for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 La nina's usually have cool springs so I could see it turning cold and stormy in March which will bring snow but by then it may be too late for some. Something tells me this spring won't be a "usual" La Nina: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sure is going to be a major tornado season. Wow the Gulf of Mexico temps are really warm this year and that a lot of times spells trouble for spring. Watch out in the south especially the Dixie States again this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Sure is going to be a major tornado season. Wow the Gulf of Mexico temps are really warm this year and that a lot of times spells trouble for spring. Watch out in the south especially the Dixie States again this spring. There is a lot more to it than that and you should be ashamed of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Bring it on, especially after this week. I'm ready to start tending the garden and redoing the landscaping in the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Bring it on, especially after this week. I'm ready to start tending the garden and redoing the landscaping in the front. Yep. The next two weeks look mild, which puts us into March. May as well put a fork in this non-winter, and start spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Something tells me this spring won't be a "usual" La Nina: Well like I said anyone who forecasts 2 or 3 above normal will be right over 80% of the time according to recent trends. That may be the new normal for these times I hate to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This winter has been nearly a carbon copy of 08-09 down here in SE Va. No snow or cold all winter, then a little at the end. That Spring, the typical rainy pattern came in March (which is what Ellinwood's analogue maps also suggest) then April was drier and warmer. ENSO was very similar too. That Winter was a weak Nina/cold neutral that began fading into Spring and saw an El Nino rise that Summer (which is quite plausible for this Summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I have heard highs ranging from 70-72 for Wednesday. It is going to be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I have heard highs ranging from 70-72 for Wednesday. It is going to be nice. Thursday has a chance. I assume that's what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Nina Febs love them some 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 My forecasted high for Thursday is 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hmm.... I can feel a thursday sore throat and mild fever coming on already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 yeah, my zone has it for 72 on Thursday. That'll work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Not only are daffodils out along the Potomac River, but some dandelions have ALREADY gone to seed... and the bugs are trying to get a head start too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 My forecasted high for Thursday is 70 Mine is 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Mine is 67. How? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cockeysville&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=39.4778&lon=-76.6318 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 How? http://forecast.weat...78&lon=-76.6318 It's 67 when I click exactly at where I live..........but it doesn't really matter, I was just a little surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's 67 when I click exactly at where I live..........but it doesn't really matter, I was just a little surprised. Oh, I see what you mean... its 69 for me when I click exactly where I live. weird. Anyways, yes... looking forward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Oh, I see what you mean... its 69 for me when I click exactly where I live. weird. Anyways, yes... looking forward to it! 68 for us. Plan on doing 2 nights of homework with the kids so we can enjoy the day from after school till dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 73. I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Severe Friday Ian/Ellinwood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ^ no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's too warm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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