Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I'm not sure how much ice there will be, but using the GFS is probably the last thing you want to do when looking at sfc temps in a CAD or pseudo-CAD setup. Yes, even the warm GFS is pretty cold and its probably colder at your location. The precip flys in before the CAD erodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Isn't this like the fifth icing event that has been modelled this month around here? I feel like I am in Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Man..what I wouldn't give to get that damaging ice down here in interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 How do ECM 2m temps look for the Monadnocks? I just don't see the big high, NE/NNE flow, and antecedent cold that we need for a large icing event. Looks more like a slopstorm to me. 32 during precip fall, actually the Euro gives decent snow on its weenie snow maps. Will always says the Euro is too warm at the surface so this could be interesting for the Tubeanator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I'm not going to anticipate more than a bunch of meh. Maybe a delayed school start on Friday morning for the kids, but no big deal. 30.1/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 How do ECM 2m temps look for the Monadnocks? I just don't see the big high, NE/NNE flow, and antecedent cold that we need for a large icing event. Looks more like a slopstorm to me. Its not a large icing event...but 6-8 hours of icing can cause some issues. Euro was pretty cold through 42h, but it has the sfc low not developing enough of a secondary to hold the cold air in longer than that, so it would likely be only 1 or 2 tenths of ice...however, the Euro can often be too warm at the sfc too in these setups. We'll just have to see how the 00z runs come in. Climo very often wants to form a little triple point low that tracks along RI/SE MA and if that happens, it will be icing in the monadnocks for most of the storm. Huge icing events are rare...you need a lot of things to line up. That's why they happen like once every 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Its not a large icing event...but 6-8 hours of icing can cause some issues. Euro was pretty cold through 42h, but it has the sfc low not developing enough of a secondary to hold the cold air in longer than that, so it would likely be only 1 or 2 tenths of ice...however, the Euro can often be too warm at the sfc too in these setups. We'll just have to see how the 00z runs come in. Climo very often wants to form a little triple point low that tracks along RI/SE MA and if that happens, it will be icing in the monadnocks for most of the storm. Huge icing events are rare...you need a lot of things to line up. That's why they happen like once every 10 years. Yes, no 2008 or anything but looks like enough for travel, branch issues. White Birch bender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Man..what I wouldn't give to get that damaging ice down here in interior SNE It won't be that damaging. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 32 during precip fall, actually the Euro gives decent snow on its weenie snow maps. Will always says the Euro is too warm at the surface so this could be interesting for the Tubeanator Is that 2m temps, Steve? Looks like I'm in the -4-0 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 You usually want to see at least 1.50-2.00 inches of qpf modeld as ZR to worry about a major damaging ice storm. Sometimes you can get them when its modeled less, but the icing has to be very efficient with a really solid high to the north supplying plenty of low level cold and low dewpoints...or have it add up over like 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 It won't be that damaging. No big deal. Actually, I could see a 10-20 mile wide band, where it could be really icy and pretty bad. But that is based in this current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Is that 2m temps, Steve? Looks like I'm in the -4-0 range. You will be at record speeds on the sled run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I think it will keep moving north and trend warmer. A nice 36F rain for most of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I think it will keep moving north and trend warmer. A nice 36F rain for most of it you mean you hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 you mean you hope Why? I would love a bit o' ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I think it will keep moving north and trend warmer. A nice 36F rain for most of it remember that southern stream vort that was supposed to bring rain to the canadian border only to bring the snow/ice/rain line to like methuen, ma on the 12'th we have a solidly negative AO and a rising PNA i dont think winds will really be rippin from the ESE either that far inland let's get this triple point going and you can ice skate across to wa wa fri am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 You will be at record speeds on the sled run. LOL. Is that 2m temps though? I can't distinguish the colors anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Why? I would love a bit o' ice well you certainly are not getting 2 inches of qpf, bet you get enough for a Friday delay though. Stay thirsty my friend thirsty Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 remember that southern stream vort that was supposed to bring rain to the canadian border only to bring the snow/ice/rain line to like methuen, ma on the 12'th we have a solidly negative AO and a rising PNA let's get this triple point going and you can ice skate across to wa wa fri am. I remember 12/23 as well... Let's hope it doesn't want to ice at Vim Toot's instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 LOL. Is that 2m temps though? I can't distinguish the colors anyway. yes red line is 32 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 well you certainly are not getting 2 inches of qpf, bet you get enough for a Friday delay though. Stay thirsty my friend thirsty Thursday night. Lol... I have back to back ski club evenings Thurs and Friday. Mine on Thursday, and my son's on Friday. At least the wet stuff should be done fairly early on Friday. Skiing might blow, though Anyway, something possibly interesting to track at least. Better than trading barbs with Gints fans in OT, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 yes red line is 32 degrees Are you referring to the wunderground map you posted? I don't see a red line--my eyes are sh*t! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Are you referring to the wunderground map you posted? I don't see a red line--my eyes are sh*t! lol Fookin old guys, yea that squiggly broader dark line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Fookin old guys, yea that squiggly broader dark line. lol It almost looks like one of Sam's snowfall maps, danglin over N ORH cty at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 We really need to see what 0z holds, because right now its anywhere from 1" snow to .2" zr to rain ala Euro or 4-6" snow to 0.2" zr ala NAM. Also, the Euro's qpf is jacked up big time. 1-1.25" here in NNE, more south, while Nam/Gfs really dont surpass 1". Whats up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Fookin old guys, yea that squiggly broader dark line. Boy--did you edit the map and drop that in there? I couldn't even see the damn thing the first two times l looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 some suprise snows in the OV thread. over in central eastern indiana and nw ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 some suprise snows in the OV thread. over in central eastern indiana and nw ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 We will see what the models show @00z, They usually struggle with cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 some suprise snows in the OV thread. over in central eastern indiana and nw ohio Well this shouldn't come as any surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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