Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 NAM historically does much better with CAD than the Euro but it did a lot worse in the Jan 12th event for some reason. I'd buy the Euro solution synoptically, but the NAM might do a bit better in the low levels. We'll see...Euro is pretty cold too at the sfc, but it eventually tries to track the low into the interior whereas the NAM keeps it along the coastal plain and locks the cold in the interior a little more efficiently. The is probably going to be a big sleet/ice event for CNE...and perhaps some decent icing in the northern parts of interior SNE if the low stays along the CP. Yea great points, pretty juicy system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 NAM historically does much better with CAD than the Euro but it did a lot worse in the Jan 12th event for some reason. I'd buy the Euro solution synoptically, but the NAM might do a bit better in the low levels. We'll see...Euro is pretty cold too at the sfc, but it eventually tries to track the low into the interior whereas the NAM keeps it along the coastal plain and locks the cold in the interior a little more efficiently. The is probably going to be a big sleet/ice event for CNE...and perhaps some decent icing in the northern parts of interior SNE if the low stays along the CP. Where would you put SNH will? This winter will be forgiven if a damaging icestorm ripped through SNE and CNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 NAM historically does much better with CAD than the Euro but it did a lot worse in the Jan 12th event for some reason. I'd buy the Euro solution synoptically, but the NAM might do a bit better in the low levels. We'll see...Euro is pretty cold too at the sfc, but it eventually tries to track the low into the interior whereas the NAM keeps it along the coastal plain and locks the cold in the interior a little more efficiently. The is probably going to be a big sleet/ice event for CNE...and perhaps some decent icing in the northern parts of interior SNE if the low stays along the CP. What are your thoughts for NNE? Seems like a quick 1-3" of snow to ice and the Euro implies rain. Would CAD keep temps at the surface below freezing through NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 P/C for up here is actually promising, considering BTV hasnt updated their AFD yet: Thursday Night: Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 22. Southeast wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday: Snow and sleet before 11am, then a chance of snow between 11am and noon, then a chance of rain and snow showers after noon. High near 36. Southeast wind 7 to 16 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 What are your thoughts for NNE? Seems like a quick 1-3" of snow to ice and the Euro implies rain. Would CAD keep temps at the surface below freezing through NNE? Looks like thump snow to a good ice storm to me, pretty strong signal for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hopefully there is a lot of tree and power line damage up north . That is what it's all about. Wish that was down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the moisture in the OV hasn't been modeled that great ..... period of mod snow in lafayette, ind this pm and looking at todays 12z gfs the 12hr qpf was dry for southern indiana/ohio where its pouring now. granted it did have some modest qpf NW and S of that area where it is precipitating thouthe 18z nam (that just went out) had this modeled a bit better i would think W ma/ct may see some am snow tomm morning. like a 50/50 shot right now ..and possibly a quick inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looks like thump snow to a good ice storm to me, pretty strong signal for that. Yeah I figured some sort of snow thump (1-4") then ip then zr if aloft warms enough. Just that Euro run doesn't sit well with me, even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hopefully there is a lot of tree and power line damage up north . That is what it's all about. Wish that was down here Haven't seen a full-fledged ice storm in my 20 years of existence. Wouldn't mind something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Where would you put SNH will? This winter will be forgiven if a damaging icestorm ripped through SNE and CNE.. There should be some ice, though the CP of SNH will not hold the cold air as well since the ageostrophic flow is a little more easterly than classic ice events. Its not a long duration system either so ice will not be overly damaging I wouldn't think....but there could be some decent areas of icing. But some spots could see a few tenths of accretion. Also the antecedent airmass isn't overly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the moisture in the OV hasn't been modeled that great ..... period of mod snow in lafayette, ind this pm and looking at todays 12z gfs the 12hr qpf was dry for southern indiana/ohio where its pouring now. granted it did have some modest qpf NW and S of that area where it is precipitating but not even the 18z nam (that just went out) had this qpf in the OV modeled well i would think W ma/ct may see some am snow tomm morning. like a 50/50 shot right now ..and possibly a quick inch I mentioned this earlier and Kev and Ray laughed at me. With the WAA that will be occuring, it can def happen. Maybe not an inch, but weenie flakes WILL fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This would suck i hope it ends up warmer Thursday Night: Rain showers before 11pm, then freezing rain. Patchy fog after 10pm. Low around 30. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This would suck i hope it ends up warmer Thursday Night: Rain showers before 11pm, then freezing rain. Patchy fog after 10pm. Low around 30. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Pretty high confidence that the Springfield area will warm above freezing during the night Thursday. Probably most of that is rain. This was on BOX's FB page.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I hope so i hate freezing rain Pretty high confidence that the Springfield area will warm above freezing during the night Thursday. Probably most of that is rain. This was on BOX's FB page.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 lookin forward to 0z euro . think it will tick toward big big ice for CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 fz rain is one of my fav's . to look out when it's in the 20's and rain is special. weenie ridge could be skating rink for a while late thurs. nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I hate it only because ive been threw one of the worse ice storms ever and i never want to do it again but i guess it is nice to look at fz rain is one of my fav's . to look out when it's in the 20's and rain is special. weenie ridge could be skating rink for a while late thurs. nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18 Z GFS is an ice storm for many CNE TO NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Pretty high confidence that the Springfield area will warm above freezing during the night Thursday. Probably most of that is rain. This was on BOX's FB page.... LOL...look at the cutoff on the west slope of the Berks. Classic. I believe PSF hasn't had a legitimate ZR ob since 2/5/11. That event was probably the most significant icing event we've had on the west slope in a good long while. Usually we go from sleet directly to rain and skip freezing rain in these WAA SWFE setups. We even missed out on the December 2008 ice storm here on the west slope with 33° F and rain. ZR can and does occur, but usually briefly and only a couple times a winter. Our elevation also excludes us from the low-level northerly ageo flow events that often bring nasty freezing rain to ALB and even POU and the cold air trapping events around BAF and CEF. Fortunately ZR doesn't do much for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18 Z GFS is an ice storm for many CNE TO NNE Looks like the Monadnocks start as ice but go over to rain between hours 36 and 39. Pretty mild run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18 Z GFS is an ice storm for many CNE TO NNE Even it turns everyone over to plain rain at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Even it turns everyone over to plain rain at 15z by 15 Z its over, drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Even it turns everyone over to plain rain at 15z I don't see a huge icing threat with a marginal antecedent airmass, ESE winds, and only a weak high pressure to the north. Looks like a nuisance event for most of New England outside of well-elevated areas near the Canadian border which could see 2-4" snow followed by .25" ice accretion or so. The 18z GFS is very warm at 850mb and the 2m freezing line flies up to Canada at 15z, changing everyone to rain and washing away any icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I don't see a huge icing threat with a marginal antecedent airmass, ESE winds, and only a weak high pressure to the north. Looks like a nuisance event for most of New England outside of well-elevated areas near the Canadian border which could see 2-4" snow followed by .25" ice accretion or so. The 18z GFS is very warm at 850mb and the 2m freezing line flies up to Canada at 15z, changing everyone to rain and washing away any icing. the precip is over by 15 Z, check the soundings, it lays .75 ice for near you at elevation bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the precip is over by 15 Z, check the soundings, it lays .75 ice for near you at elevation bro. I don't see that...we're at about .25" QPF or so at 36, and the 2m freezing line is already on top of us. We're probably at 32F right there and warm soon afterwards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 -AO is lowest it has been in a year and should remain low for storm PNA is rising NAM has this as cold storm for good chunk of maine (20's -30's nw to se) has weak diffuse LP over w. NY as secondary redvelops over mass and heads ENE/NE into GOMaine. IF i was in MAINE and to lesser extent even the eastern sliver of north-central NH. i def wouldn't give up on this thing yet. the euro ...even at 48 hours don't count out cooling trends with a dynamic system. We wil wait and see waht happens at 00z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yes! Epic icestorm incoming! Check your generators folks!! Huge 00z suite tonight... classic icestorm setup.. creeping up on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the precip is over by 15 Z, check the soundings, it lays .75 ice for near you at elevation bro. You can see the mid level drying taking place (drizzle) hr 42 , prior to this everything is frozen hr 39 , snow to start to ice in SNH per GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I don't see that...we're at about .25" QPF or so at 36, and the 2m freezing line is already on top of us. We're probably at 32F right there and warm soon afterwards... I'm not sure how much ice there will be, but using the GFS is probably the last thing you want to do when looking at sfc temps in a CAD or pseudo-CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I'm not sure how much ice there will be, but using the GFS is probably the last thing you want to do when looking at sfc temps in a CAD or pseudo-CAD setup. How do ECM 2m temps look for the Monadnocks? I just don't see the big high, NE/NNE flow, and antecedent cold that we need for a large icing event. Looks more like a slopstorm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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