ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Wow, I thought that I would be okay for a snow to ice event here in the Plymouth NH area but the Euro has the surface temp to 32F up to Jackman ME. Awful. Can't even get enough snow cover this year for snowmobiling. I thought this would be a net gain but it seems to be a definate loss for me and even the White Mountains. Looks like a loss for everyone except maybe the mountains of western ME during the synoptic event. Could be decent wrap around moisture in NNE but even here we are really beating a dead horse with 1-2" snow on top of 1" of liquid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Quite a temp gradient as well. At 18z Friday, it'll be 50-52F along the Mass Pike, while its 39-40F at Brattleboro,VT 50 miles north. Ans even after this storm passes, highs will be above 32F right to the Canadian border Sat and Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looks like a loss for everyone except maybe the mountains of western ME during the synoptic event. Could be decent wrap around moisture in NNE but even here we are really beating a dead horse with 1-2" snow on top of 1" of liquid... I can tell you first hand that at my local, And i don't even mention it anymore when any model shows it, That wraparound is a 100% fail here as i get downsloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 We are still 48hrs out, but man this is heading in the wrong direction. I feel like the guys in the SNE thread right now If 0z is this bad, I might even stop covering this system. Just brutal for ski areas up here. Sickening really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I can tell you first hand that at my local, And i don't even mention it anymore when any model shows it, That wraparound is a 100% fail here as i get downsloped Yeah thats the case for me too, off the greens. PF is really the only one who makes out with stuff like that. Just an awful turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah thats the case for me too, off the greens. PF is really the only one who makes out with stuff like that. Just an awful turn of events. My fears last night were NW trends and there is nothing to stop it other then a sheared out weaker system with more northern stream involvement, Not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I'd been planning to take the kids to Shawnee Peak for our first day of skiing this weekend, but man is this looking ugly. Just when it seemed like we were finally starting to build things up. I really could not fathom GYX's snow-bullishness this morning given the preponderance of warming guidance. Unlike the last couple events, the "cold high" doesn't seem very impressive and it's always looked like a question of whether we could thread the needle. Naturally the thread headed NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 My fears last night were NW trends and there is nothing to stop it other then a sheared out weaker system with more northern stream involvement, Not going to happen -AO is lowest it has been in a year and should remain low for storm PNA is rising NAM has this as cold storm for good chunk of maine (20's -30's nw to se) has weak diffuse LP over w. NY as secondary redvelops over mass and heads ENE/NE into GOMaine. IF i was in MAINE and to lesser extent even the eastern sliver of north-central NH. i def wouldn't give up on this thing yet. the euro ...even at 48 hours don't count out cooling trends with a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 -AO is lowest it has been in a year and should remain low for storm PNA is rising NAM has this as cold storm for good chunk of maine (20's -30's nw to se) has weak diffuse LP over w. NY as secondary redvelops over mass and heads ENE/NE into GOMaine. IF i was in MAINE and to lesser extent even the eastern sliver of north-central NH. i def wouldn't give up on this thing yet. the euro ...even at 48 hours don't count out cooling trends with a dynamic system. Agree. Thats the overall feeling here in the LSC wx center. This is highly dynamic and the grid spacing doesnt account for CAD either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 We'll still have to see how strong the secondary gets to hold off the mid-levels from torching. I think ME will be the best spot to be with this one, and even here it looks pretty ugly for most of the population. Here's the link to the latest snow prob's. http://www.meteo.psu...robsnwloop.html Thanks for posting this. Im happy something is happening. I'll take whatever we can get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 New 15z snow probs are warmer (shocker) but they still like just north of dryslot...increased the 4+ probs for west M.E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 New 15z snow probs are warmer (shocker) but they still like just north of dryslot...increased the 4+ probs for west M.E. Terrible. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 For SNE, NAM has some definite icing issues in monadnocks, N ORH county, and GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18z nam hits the ossipee region of nh ENE over to interior maine away from coast . tight gradient from like concord,nh over toward KLEW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Nice improvement on the NAM. Looks like most of the precip moves through before the changeover. Looks like there's a chance I could stay all snow. This will be huge as the local ski area needs a few more inches to open (no snowmaking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18z nam hits the ossipee region of nh ENE over to interior maine away from coast . tight gradient from like concord,nh over toward KLEW Its been the case most of the "winter". I've heard its gonna be tough to stay all frozen in the CON region many times. Kind of a bummer but most times I've ended up getting an inch or two so I would go with the same for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Nice improvement on the NAM. Looks like most of the precip moves through before the changeover. Looks like there's a chance I could stay all snow. This will be huge as the local ski area needs a few more inches to open (no snowmaking) lets hope the trends your friend at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hey Will (or any met reading), there's a glaring difference between the NAM and the EURO...which solution are you buying into at this point/what model does a better job handling these type of events? Because the NAM takes almost the same track as the EURO. Would the NAM due better at detecting low level CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 ? that is a very optomistic look at the nam for lowell, ma. maybe his other listed location? no so much for lowell lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Another thing I question is how the SREFS are so amped and the 18z NAM is quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 maybe his other listed location? no so much for lowell lol lol i should have known better. i'll edit that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Don't be fooled by the NAM. It is very warm at 800mb. This is a lot of ice for C NH...especially the higher elevations like Gene. If we can keep the redeveloping sfc low to our south Friday could get precarious in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 ? that is a very optomistic look at the nam for lowell, ma. But for Thornton, Nh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 According to SV snow algorithm maps (idk how good these are) it gets 1-2" into the northern ORH hills lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 With this solution, many will get hopes up just for 0z to warm. Tough to argue with the Euro at 48hrs, and even the gfs to some extent. The NAM is the best case scenario with the low developing over MA and travelling ENE toward the Maine midcoast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Don't be fooled by the NAM. It is very warm at 800mb. This is a lot of ice for C NH...especially the higher elevations like Gene. If we can keep the redeveloping sfc low to our south Friday could get precarious in some locations. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html IZG 12z fri sounding thou they look cold enough for snow on 18z nam thru 9z.....w/ a warm nose at 750 kissing 0.5 C then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Don't be fooled by the NAM. It is very warm at 800mb. This is a lot of ice for C NH...especially the higher elevations like Gene. If we can keep the redeveloping sfc low to our south Friday could get precarious in some locations. CIPS analog top 15 say icing threat is very substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html IZG 12z fri sounding thou they look cold enough for snow on 18z nam thru 9z.....w/ a warm nose at 750 kissing 0.5 C then Yeah...IZG nears a changeover around 9z Fri this run.I reach an isothermal 0C between H85-H75 at 6z...that's after 0.35" of w.e. as snow. I wouldn't really buy it at this point though as the EC op/ens are horrendous. We'll see how the 00z runs fare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Hey Will (or any met reading), there's a glaring difference between the NAM and the EURO...which solution are you buying into at this point/what model does a better job handling these type of events? Because the NAM takes almost the same track as the EURO. Would the NAM due better at detecting low level CAD? NAM historically does much better with CAD than the Euro but it did a lot worse in the Jan 12th event for some reason. I'd buy the Euro solution synoptically, but the NAM might do a bit better in the low levels. We'll see...Euro is pretty cold too at the sfc, but it eventually tries to track the low into the interior whereas the NAM keeps it along the coastal plain and locks the cold in the interior a little more efficiently. The is probably going to be a big sleet/ice event for CNE...and perhaps some decent icing in the northern parts of interior SNE if the low stays along the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah...IZG nears a changeover around 9z Fri this run. I reach an isothermal 0C between H85-H75 at 6z...that's after 0.35" of w.e. as snow. I wouldn't really buy it at this point though as the EC op/ens are horrendous. We'll see how the 00z runs fare. Key. I really don't buy any cold solutions at this point. It's the Euro/ens, Srefs, and gfs/ens Vs. the Nam...like come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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