ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 That actually happens quite often, Like you said, We have different models keying on the different waves in the pattern only to finally come into agreement on which one becomes the more dominant, Timing plays a role in all this as well, We should start to see some better model agreement hopefully starting at 00z if not by 12z tomorrow as we are starting to get inside the window of some of the better models namely the Euro. Yeah BTV was leaning toward the GFS solution (IDK why) but we'll see. If the GFS comes in like 18z did, its def a trend toward the more amplified Euro, which honestly is kind of expected at 60 hours out with both models' track records over the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Do you think there is anything synoptically that leads to a colder outcome? I don't see it, We don't have a real dominant high to the north and the air over eastern canada looks cold not frigid so we will have to work with what we have it seems, My concerns is that we continue to see tics NW as we would have with a stronger system and no real blocking to speak of, Obviously if we could get this to track further SE we could hold on to what cold air we have longer and probably sustain more frozen precip, But my best guess is for here anyways that will be the foothills, mtns and northern maine up to vim toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah BTV was leaning toward the GFS solution (IDK why) but we'll see. If the GFS comes in like 18z did, its def a trend toward the more amplified Euro, which honestly is kind of expected at 60 hours out with both models' track records over the last few winters. The Nam is really the model that is tracking this system further SE and colder then the others, But its out on an island and i would not trust it after its performance of late, It did nail the qpf along with the gfs in the last storm that i saw 8" here though, If we continue to see the euro and gfs hold serve or tic NW we will have mixing issues and may even end up further inland, Ideally i would like to see a trend SE but that looks to have to come from a weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I don't see it, We don't have a real dominant high to the north and the air over eastern canada looks cold not frigid so we will have to work with what we have it seems, My concerns is that we continue to see tics NW as we would have with a stronger system and no real blocking to speak of, Obviously if we could get this to track further SE we could hold on to what cold air we have longer and probably sustain more frozen precip, But my best guess is for here anyways that will be the foothills, mtns and northern maine up to vim toot! My gut feeling is that PF to Berlin, NH to Vim Toot does well (on the order of 4-8") whiles areas SE of that line has taint. Timing is key because 18z Friday, surface temps get close to or above 32F for almost everyone but Vim Toot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The Nam is really the model that is tracking this system further SE and colder then the others, But its out on an island and i would not trust it after its performance of late, It did nail the qpf along with the gfs in the last storm that i saw 8" here though Again, I really think the NAM/GFS has been playing catch to the Euro lately. The Euro handled that s/w that gave SNE 10" last weekend 100+hrs out while the GFS didn't catch on to anything until 84hrs. I am really worried about NW ticks though. You'd think living up here that we wouldn't have to worry about that, but oh how we all love winter 2011-2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Again, I really think the NAM/GFS has been playing catch to the Euro lately. The Euro handled that s/w that gave SNE 10" last weekend 100+hrs out while the GFS didn't catch on to anything until 84hrs. I am really worried about NW ticks though. You'd think living up here that we wouldn't have to worry about that, but oh how we all love winter 2011-2012... This year definitly with a tight gradient pattern here, The ones to the north will always do well, There is a pretty good icing signal on the Euro as well with this system as the 546 thickness was 50 miles north of the 0c and 2m temps here, Looks like we have the colder american models against the warmer foreign models and probabaly won't like the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 eck....looks like a bummer storm for all but the far north...but who knows, the overnight runs will likely tip the hand one direction or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This year definitly with a tight gradient pattern here, The ones to the north will always do well, There is a pretty good icing signal on the Euro as well with this system as the 546 thickness was 50 miles north of the 0c and 2m temps here, Looks like we have the colder american models against the warmer foreign models and probabaly won't like the outcome. Yup. the 12z EURO verbatim for N VT and even over towards you was snow to ice. no liquid, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 lets hope for a tick south on the srefs as perhaps a lead off into a more encouragiing model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 SREFs are way warmer than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 SREFs are way warmer than 15z. We talking all rain here in the Monadnocks for this storm, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 We talking all rain here in the Monadnocks for this storm, Will? No, I doubt its all rain..there is likely to be a period of icing for a good part of the storm...probably a touch of snow on the front end too but most likely an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Wrong direction on the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Wrong direction on the srefs Come join the dark side........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Come join the dark side........ lol, Had a pretty good taste of it the last couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Welp, no use getting hopes up for this one. As the Rev says, know when to hold them, know when to fold them. Fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 SREFs are way warmer than 15z. 2nd nail in coffin. 3rd nail to come around 11pm 4th to follow in the night. oh well. I sound like Ray now. This slowly building snowpack made me hopeful this week....but now I am sinking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I am holding on to my circle of trust avatar but my fingers are slipping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I am holding on to my circle of trust avatar but my fingers are slipping.... Probably because of the rain...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 SREFs don't look that different to me. 15z followed by the new 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 SREFs don't look that different to me. 15z followed by the new 21z run. Higher 4"+ prob here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Higher 4"+ prob here Yeah they look pretty good for something 54-60hr away on the srefs...but again it the srefs I'm not sure what the negativity was about for NNE. They look pretty good for you. Will, could you explain how they are warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Higher 4"+ prob here 2" of snow followed by 0.75" rain isn't my cup o' tea, but you have to work with what you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah they look pretty good for something 54-60hr away on the srefs...but again it the srefs I'm not sure what the negativity was about for NNE. They look pretty good for you. Will, could you explain how they are warmer? Based on those probs they do look good here, We will see where everthing else goes tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah they look pretty good for something 54-60hr away on the srefs...but again it the srefs I'm not sure what the negativity was about for NNE. They look pretty good for you. Will, could you explain how they are warmer? The probabilities aren't the same as the mean temperatures...its possible that more qpf is getting in sooner or that there's a few warmer members skewing the mean which would not necessarily affect probabilities. That said, this has all the classic hallmarks of a warmer trending system and I would take the SREF probs at this point with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Nam is toasty. Snow to mix verbatim here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 And down the drain (literally) goes another week of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Rain Can't see surface, but 850 does suck too bad out your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Sugarloaf storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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