weatherMA Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 How does the euro look long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Might as well Lesco now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Might as well Lesco now. You nailed the warm final 40 days of winter. Most didn't see it, but you did. Kudos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You nailed the warm final 40 days of winter. Most didn't see it, but you did. Kudos You'll snow again, relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You nailed the 40 yr old virgin this winter. Most didn't see me nude, but you did. Kudos Scooter's slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Scooter's slick. Feb outlook ready? 25-35" outlook, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Scooter's slick. LOL, good one. You know if he starts as snow or ice, he'll be happy as a pig in mud, once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 LOL, good one. You know if he starts as snow or ice, he'll be happy as a pig in mud, once again. I'm just glad you were able to steer me clear of falling for cold, snowy Feb like Ray and others are calling for. I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm just glad you were able to steer me clear of falling for cold, snowy Feb like Ray and others are calling for. I appreciate it Oh stop..lol. I didn't call for anything. Nice indirect comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I haven't made me Feb call yet....I don't do temps, but will likely be at least a bit above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro is juicy. 1" qpf all the into central VT/NH, granted half of it isnt snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 18z nam is decent for CNE...maybe 2-4" or 3-5" for central NH and VT...into NNE.15z srefs trended considerably south even showing some 30% probs for 1"+ into the ORH area. Still though...with the GGEM and ECMWF so warm...having the nam and srefs a bit colder when its 60 hours away is not exactly comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 18z nam is decent for CNE...maybe 2-4" or 3-5" for central NH and VT...into NNE.15z srefs trended considerably south even showing some 30% probs for 1"+ into the ORH area. Still though...with the GGEM and ECMWF so warm...having the nam and srefs a bit colder when its 60 hours away is not exactly comforting. Unfortunately, yeah the last part of your statement is pretty big. Globals are warm for SNE and CNE, and the NAM/Srefs are out of their range. But, its worth noting that 18z NAM/GFS runs can still be used for trends. On to 0Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 18z nam is decent for CNE...maybe 2-4" or 3-5" for central NH and VT...into NNE.15z srefs trended considerably south even showing some 30% probs for 1"+ into the ORH area. Still though...with the GGEM and ECMWF so warm...having the nam and srefs a bit colder when its 60 hours away is not exactly comforting. Unfortunately, yeah the last part of your statement is pretty big. Globals are warm for SNE and CNE, and the NAM/Srefs are out of their range. But, its worth noting that 18z NAM/GFS runs can still be used for trends. On to 0Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 18z GFS is def juiced up as well. 500mb vort is closer to a phase than at 12z, and the ultimate solution taps into more gulf moisture as it ejects NE'ward. Def more Euro'esque with QPF over .75" for SNE and nearing .5" for alot of NNE. It is the 18z but we'll see what the 0z suite brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 18z GFS is def juiced up as well. 500mb vort is closer to a phase than at 12z, and the ultimate solution taps into more gulf moisture as it ejects NE'ward. Def more Euro'esque with QPF over .75" for SNE and nearing .5" for alot of NNE. It is the 28z but we'll see what the 0z suite brings. Please God try to make this just a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 18z GFS is def juiced up as well. 500mb vort is closer to a phase than at 12z, and the ultimate solution taps into more gulf moisture as it ejects NE'ward. Def more Euro'esque with QPF over .75" for SNE and nearing .5" for alot of NNE. It is the 18z but we'll see what the 0z suite brings. Looks like a solid 3-5" for you. Maybe a brief period of sn/pl for interior sne at midnight before the flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Right now the Nam looks like its the coldest here of all the models but its not saying much right now being on its outer limits, NW trends have been the way things have gone for most of this year so that is certainlt a factor here going forward, Would like to se some shifts SE on the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Yeah this isnt staying all snow up here...we will at least mix at some point. Hopefully we can avoid the GGEMs solutions though. At least east of the Spine we all have a chance at holding some cold. Snowing out now...weenie snow but there was a weak upslope signal tonight so hopefully we can whiten the ground with a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The biggest wintry threat from this system is likely to be ice...though NNE could see some advisory type snows before it flips. Perhaps 1-2" in SNE north of the pike if it goes well, but I'd probably hedge less than that. The icing signal is definitely there though...esp if the secondary can get going early and really turn the ageostrophic flow more northerly instead of easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 At least you folks near the Rt 2 area and points north may get some snow before ice and maybe cold rain. NAM is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ice is definitely looking like its going to be part of the equation unless we can get colder here and shift the track further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Icing AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Looks like a solid 3-5" for you. Maybe a brief period of sn/pl for interior sne at midnight before the flip to rain. If something like this played out, I could def see a flip to ip/zr with a warm tongue of air btwn 850-925 with SW winds screaming. I could also see some accumulation near rt. 2 in Mass as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looking at the 18z GEFS compared to the 12z, 2 of the 12z members gave .5"+ to NNE, while 8 of the 18z members did. Definitely shows how if the two streams phase in time, the Friday system steal most of the energy, amplifies, and delivers a modest QPF event to New England, while the weekend event is robbed of its energy and slides harmlessly OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looking at the 18z GEFS compared to the 12z, 2 of the 12z members gave .5"+ to NNE, while 8 of the 18z members did. Definitely shows how if the two streams phase in time, the Friday system steal most of the energy, amplifies, and delivers a modest QPF event to New England, while the weekend event is robbed of its energy and slides harmlessly OTS. There is not a whole lot of spacing between the two systems so i think we are going to see one be more dominant and right now it looks to be the one on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 There is not a whole lot of spacing between the two systems so i think we are going to see one be more dominant and right now it looks to be the one on friday Yeah I have that feeling too because the sampled data is getting close to/already is being sampled into the models for 0z and we should start seeing a clear trend develop starting tonight, and really it already has begun at 12z today IMO. This happens alot if you think about it. 96h out it looks as though there may be 2 threats and it turns out only to be one bigger one due to models handling different shortwaves. I think it happened earlier this season at one point, cant remember when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 There is not a whole lot of spacing between the two systems so i think we are going to see one be more dominant and right now it looks to be the one on friday Do you think there is anything synoptically that leads to a colder outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Do you think there is anything synoptically that leads to a colder outcome? Well, from what I can tell, it depends on the phasing of the 2 streams. With the airmass in place, basically anyone south of Rt. 2 in Mass wont stay all frozen unless this thing really shears out anddoesn't amplify at all, which won't lead to anything big anyway. For you in New Hampshire, you just don't want this thing to amplify too much and go right over your head, because it'll draw in warm SW flow aloft and eventually at the surface. With the way its going now, it looks to go over KBOS which would leave you with a SN/mix scenario. But if the more amplified solutions play out and this thing tracks over KLEB or even BTV, we're all in trouble and flip to rain with the exception of maybe NW VT. So basically watch for phasing of the N and S streams at 500mb over the next few run and see if the northern stream scoots out ahead of the southern stream. If that occurs, less phasing and thus less amplification should occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah I have that feeling too because the sampled data is getting close to/already is being sampled into the models for 0z and we should start seeing a clear trend develop starting tonight, and really it already has begun at 12z today IMO. This happens alot if you think about it. 96h out it looks as though there may be 2 threats and it turns out only to be one bigger one due to models handling different shortwaves. I think it happened earlier this season at one point, cant remember when. That actually happens quite often, Like you said, We have different models keying on the different waves in the pattern only to finally come into agreement on which one becomes the more dominant, Timing plays a role in all this as well, We should start to see some better model agreement hopefully starting at 00z if not by 12z tomorrow as we are starting to get inside the window of some of the better models namely the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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