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1/27/12 SWFE Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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I wonder if that batch of precip will have a very weak surface reflection with it, sliding along the south coast of SNE tonight. It's got a weak vortmax accompanying it...sometimes you can get a weak reflection at the surface as it moves east.

Sometimes those little mesolows can screw up the forecast a bit...if you remember in the Dec '08 ice storm, it was supposed to change to rain eventually in the final 6 hours but that mesolow out ahead gave an extra push for the colder air to get SW and we never flipped...it was probably those final 6-8 hours that made the ice storm historic rather than just major/crippling.

Obviously we aren't talking about an event like that here, but it could help some areas stay colder for longer when you get those little meso lows...cold tuck FTW.

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I wonder if that batch of precip will have a very weak surface reflection with it, sliding along the south coast of SNE tonight. It's got a weak vortmax accompanying it...sometimes you can get a weak reflection at the surface as it moves east.

would that have implication for the interior (495 belt) on wether some N'rely Aego flow could stick around for more of the precip tonite...leading to some icing.....a bit closer in the W and Nw burbs of bos

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Sometimes those little mesolows can screw up the forecast a bit...if you remember in the Dec '08 ice storm, it was supposed to change to rain eventually in the final 6 hours but that mesolow out ahead gave an extra push for the colder air to get SW and we never flipped...it was probably those final 6-8 hours that made the ice storm historic rather than just major/crippling.

Obviously we aren't talking about an event like that here, but it could help some areas stay colder for longer when you get those little meso lows...cold tuck FTW.

Yeah, it's not like a guarantee..but something I was thinking about. It very well may be just a burst of mid level WAA and nothing really at the surface, but it wouldn't shock me to see something like that. And like you said..it could slow the front down...although it probably won't be denied around my area.

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would that have implication for the interior (495 belt) on wether some N'rely Aego flow could stick around for more of the precip tonite...leading to some icing.....a bit closer in the W and Nw burbs of bos

Well it could, but it would probably have more an effect on the interior outside of 495. However like I said, it might not happen...it's just that sometimes these leading batches of precip can have a very weak low form near LI sound or something like that. I wouldn't get excited about it..just something to watch and see if it does occur.

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Looks like we're cold enough top to bottom for a few hours of snow..It coming in earlier is going to help. Folks are gonna be caught off guard in CT

Its 37-39 degrees up there right now..I know you will wet bulb down and probably start as a little snow if whats happening in NY holds true further east, but to have anyone "caught off guard" is a bit of a stretch in my opinion

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Weenie flakes beginning to fly here about 2 hours ahead of schedule. Radar really blossoming just to my S and W so it could ramp up here soon. Could be a nice little burst of snow before changeover occurs. I'll keep you posted.

GFS is all over that. The Otis mechanic here at work working on an escalator is a huge weenie lives at the top of Mt Tolland at the highest point. I told him to give me a report in the AM.

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light snow/sleet here FTW

Thats awesome, weather x has the same in stamford.......rain here, enjoy the snow guys!!

Interesting. This bodes well for interior SNE as it indicates the mid-level freezing line may be a little further S than modeled. Could imply a longer period of snow and sleet before changeover.

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