OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Chris nice to have you on here regularly...thanks for that. I'm in northern Merrimack County, on the town line of Webster and Salisbury...about 675 ft. You guys have had a good winter in terms of forecasts for winter events! Hopefully your skills get challenged in a good way over the next couple months. This one doesn't have the feel of an overperformer unfortunately but this is only my 4th winter up here. Are you on the afternoon shift today? Happy to post obs. We are only 15 miles nw of CON but often hang onto cold a good bit longer I get to light the fuse and run so to speak. Hoist the headlines and enjoy the next few days off... You might get a nice couple of hours this evening, because once the snow starts it should pick up in intensity quickly. But I think the warmer air aloft moves in pretty quickly, brief period of sleet, then over to freezing rain. I think just to your northwest as the elevation really starts to climb it's not out of the question to see a half inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I get to light the fuse and run so to speak. Hoist the headlines and enjoy the next few days off... You might get a nice couple of hours this evening, because once the snow starts it should pick up in intensity quickly. But I think the warmer air aloft moves in pretty quickly, brief period of sleet, then over to freezing rain. I think just to your northwest as the elevation really starts to climb it's not out of the question to see a half inch of ice. I'd be happy to get a quick couple of inches that I can walk around in and enjoy, then go to sleep and wake up to the disaster and start hoping again.... enjoy the time off! head nw young man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Not that much of an icing threat on the 6z NAM or 6z GFS, extreme southern Monadnocks look to go above freezing with ESE winds. Could get nasty up by CON however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I get to light the fuse and run so to speak. Hoist the headlines and enjoy the next few days off... You might get a nice couple of hours this evening, because once the snow starts it should pick up in intensity quickly. But I think the warmer air aloft moves in pretty quickly, brief period of sleet, then over to freezing rain. I think just to your northwest as the elevation really starts to climb it's not out of the question to see a half inch of ice. Pretty much expecting snow (2-3" ) to IP to ZR here with some mod icing which is a little concerning if we hold onto the cold here longer at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 That SWFE jackpot area of Conway/IZG might be the wrong ptype this time around. A lot of the sounding analysis is concerning, especially if the low levels hang onto the cold. Most of the models eventually take things above freezing, but it's not by much. Yeah looks icy up that way. I only briefly looked at it, since I'm pretty much locked for a cold rain...but seems like the Monads and up into the Lakes Region and near IZG up in Rangeley could be pretty icy after some snow. Like you said, probably those high elevation areas on the east slopes getting some more serious icing. Especially near and northeast of IZG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 GYX's perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I think it would hilarious if they changed those none's to nope's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Could be another torch south of pike tomorrow. Could see 30s in nrn mass and 50s for a time near BOS and down into CT. Kevin should be on the line too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Could be another torch south of pike tomorrow. Could see 30s in nrn mass and 50s for a time near BOS and down into CT. Kevin should be on the line too. 30's rn vs. 50's rn. 30.6/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 NAM seems like a lot of sleet for areas north of IZG into Rangeley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Could be another torch south of pike tomorrow. Could see 30s in nrn mass and 50s for a time near BOS and down into CT. Kevin should be on the line too. One of those deals where I'm in the 30's for much of the event..spike to 46 for like an hour or 2 and then drops back. With snowcover this would have def been forced farther south and we'd be ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looks like precip moves into extreme W MA by 21Z as some snow or a snow/sleet mix. BL temps are a little warm initially in low elevations, but things should wet bulb downward toward freezing even in those areas. I expect a 2 hour period of snow and sleet locally, but it could last a tad longer on the east slope. Accumulations will generally be an inch or less, with emphasis on the less for most. PSF likely goes to some freezing rain by 00Z and over to plain old rain by or shortly after 03Z. East slope communities above 500' or 600' could stay freezing rain until the 09Z to 12Z time frame, leading to some ice accretion (0.25-0.30"?) in those areas. Everyone around here goes to rain tomorrow morning before tapering off. There is some indication for some upslope snow showers in the CAA tomorrow evening due to wrap around and LE moisture. While I'm not anticipating much, it could lead to an inch or two for some areas, especially on the west slope. Since temps will rise into the 40s here tomorrow before the CAA, I expect losing the rest of my snowpack. It'll be nice if some upslope whitens the ground here again. Pete will probably retain most of his snow and put a glaze on it, but even there I think there will be some minor losses tomorrow as things mix out and warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm actually going to Washington, NH either tonight or tomorrow morning for a long weekend. Friends have a place there (W of CON, N of EEN). They may get some pretty good icing. Skiing will suck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Just did a full analysis of the 0z NAM solution for St. Johnsbury,VT because I have the time tonight and we are discussing in my thermo class tomorrow...dont feel like writing everything out with explanations but overall this is what the conditions are like: Snow 10pm Thurs-5am Fri Sleet 5am-9am Fri Total Snow/Sleet accumulation 2-3" Freezing rain 9am-1pm Fri at St. Johnsbury as temps get to 33F by 1pm Total Freezing Rain (700' ASL) accumulation 0.1-0.3" with 0.2"-0.4" above 1500' ASL where it stays completely below freezing throughout. Rain 1pm-3pm Snow 3pm to 10pm with wrap around moisture as temps crash aloft and at the surface. Total snow accumulation around 1" at 700' and 1-3" above 1500' Thanks for your analysis and all the tracking of this storm which you have been doing. It sounds like tomorrow will be a mess around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I have a meeting in Worcester this afternoon and will be making the trek back to the Pit at about 4:00pm or so. Perhaps I can pick up a few flake sightings as I head up 122 through Rutland/Barre/Petersham and the heading west along Rt 2. I hope my snow can withstand the upcoming system. Afterall, the rain will be cold......... OT but that ride down 122 to Worcester is beautiful and certainly the quickest route to Worcester from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 hmm cars are covered with white stuff and it's currently falling nicely here in wakefield, ma. roads getting covered. suprising? We called that... **high five** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 We called that... **high five** Yeah, you two and Scooter seemed on top of that. Wheeee! 0.3" for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah, you two and Scooter seemed on top of that. Wheeee! 0.3" for me! Road was covered at work this morning, nothing at home. 35/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Thanks for your analysis and all the tracking of this storm which you have been doing. It sounds like tomorrow will be a mess around here. Any time! Seems pretty similar to btv forecast so it looks good. Maybe a tad warmer (34-35f). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah, you two and Scooter seemed on top of that. Wheeee! 0.3" for me! Snow is snow good sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm actually going to Washington, NH either tonight or tomorrow morning for a long weekend. Friends have a place there (W of CON, N of EEN). They may get some pretty good icing. Skiing will suck lol Washington is usually an awesome spot for synoptic snow in NH. Not sure if they get in on the upslope much but there are a few places that are +/- 2K ft. so I would imagine they do a bit. I bet they will get >.25 accretion maybe .4 or .5 even if the cold air hangs longer. The center of town basically consists of a county store with one gas pump and I think they may even have a church. Always close to the jackpot I've noticed, I have taken a few weenie rides up there this snow season and every time I went they had close to double the snow that I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looks like precip moves into extreme W MA by 21Z as some snow or a snow/sleet mix. BL temps are a little warm initially in low elevations, but things should wet bulb downward toward freezing even in those areas. I expect a 2 hour period of snow and sleet locally, but it could last a tad longer on the east slope. Accumulations will generally be an inch or less, with emphasis on the less for most. PSF likely goes to some freezing rain by 00Z and over to plain old rain by or shortly after 03Z. East slope communities above 500' or 600' could stay freezing rain until the 09Z to 12Z time frame, leading to some ice accretion (0.25-0.30"?) in those areas. Everyone around here goes to rain tomorrow morning before tapering off. There is some indication for some upslope snow showers in the CAA tomorrow evening due to wrap around and LE moisture. While I'm not anticipating much, it could lead to an inch or two for some areas, especially on the west slope. Since temps will rise into the 40s here tomorrow before the CAA, I expect losing the rest of my snowpack. It'll be nice if some upslope whitens the ground here again. Pete will probably retain most of his snow and put a glaze on it, but even there I think there will be some minor losses tomorrow as things mix out and warm up. Thanks, Mitch. I'll hope for my ice. OT but that ride down 122 to Worcester is beautiful and certainly the quickest route to Worcester from here. It really is. When I lived in ORH, we'd head up that way to ski at the Swift River reservation in Petersham. Nice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Washington is usually an awesome spot for synoptic snow in NH. Not sure if they get in on the upslope much but there are a few places that are +/- 2K ft. so I would imagine they do a bit. I bet they will get >.25 accretion maybe .4 or .5 even if the cold air hangs longer. The center of town basically consists of a county store with one gas pump and I think they may even have a church. Always close to the jackpot I've noticed, I have taken a few weenie rides up there this snow season and every time I went they had close to double the snow that I had. Nice Apparently this house is on a lake and it's pretty sweet. I've never been but I've heard good things. Wasn't planning on heading up until tomorrow but may take a weenie trip up tonight for ice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro and GFS are a little different with the precip tonight. the new 12z GFS is heavier with the QPF in SNE. Would make a difference in the snow or ice up in nrn MA and srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Washington NH is one of the...if not the highest elevated towns in the state I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro and GFS are a little different with the precip tonight. the new 12z GFS is heavier with the QPF in SNE. Would make a difference in the snow or ice up in nrn MA and srn NH. Nothing like getting jackpotted with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Nothing like getting jackpotted with rain. The new 12Z GFS is interesting in that it brings accumulating snow in an initial thump as far south as Kev and actually hits GC MPMS area with 2-3 according to weenie snow maps, not believing it but that is what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro and GFS are a little different with the precip tonight. the new 12z GFS is heavier with the QPF in SNE. Would make a difference in the snow or ice up in nrn MA and srn NH. Is this what the 12Z RPM is keying off? I noticed it's accumulation amounts had increased for the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The new 12Z GFS is interesting in that it bring accumulating snow in an initial thump as far south as Kev and actually hits GC MPMS area with 2-3 according to weenie snow maps, not believing it but that is what they show. Well, that would help slow down the ultimate 'wash-away' factor later on. Cold hanging in there this morning a bit--31.1/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Nice Apparently this house is on a lake and it's pretty sweet. I've never been but I've heard good things. Wasn't planning on heading up until tomorrow but may take a weenie trip up tonight for ice!! I'm sure you'll enjoy it, sounds awesome. Drive safe, when I was there recently I saw the towns DOT station. One plow truck in someones driveway. Washington NH is one of the...if not the highest elevated towns in the state I believe. Yeah the town is at 1500 feet but theres a state forest where there's some decent sized mountains. I would imagine they'll be getting a good glaze tonight after a couple or few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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