MarkO Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Winter has been abysmal here in Lowell. Today I noticed the crocuses on the west side of my house. WTF? so I've been posting as if I'm living vicariously in Thornton fill time. But the snowpack in Thornton was at about a foot this past weekend and with Sunday morning low of -12, it felt like it. My P/C forecast is a little less than I was hoping (2-4"), but maybe the trend will be colder and we can end up with enough snow to open Campton Mountain. Hourly graph is colorful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 nothing to see here move along http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124&animate=true no chance for travel troubles in CT tomm am (esp western 1/2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 nothing to see here move along http://www.intellica...24&animate=true no chance for travel troubles in CT tomm am (esp western 1/2) Looks like a pretty good virga storm. Maybe a few weenie flakes from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Winter has been abysmal here in Lowell. Today I noticed the crocuses on the west side of my house. WTF? so I've been posting as if I'm living vicariously in Thornton fill time. But the snowpack in Thornton was at about a foot this past weekend and with Sunday morning low of -12, it felt like it. My P/C forecast is a little less than I was hoping (2-4"), but maybe the trend will be colder and we can end up with enough snow to open Campton Mountain. Hourly graph is colorful That cant be true, that only happens in Fairfield Ct, just ask GInx Good luck on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 That cant be true, that only happens in Fairfield Ct, just ask GInx Good luck on the snow! Dude you know as well as me that the soil next to your foundation supports crocuses even in the worst winters, they react to soil temp, sunny side, heat loss, refraction. Not uncommon. Come try to dig my soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Dude you know as well as me that the soil next to your foundation supports crocuses even in the worst winters, they react to soil temp, sunny side, heat loss, refraction. Not uncommon. Come try to dig my soil. I have zero crocuses. I dont think I have ever seen a crocus in bloom in Jan in New England, earliest I have ever seen them is third week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I have zero crocuses. I dont think I have ever seen a crocus in bloom in Jan in New England, earliest I have ever seen them is third week of Feb. LOL he did not say they were blooming, he saw the green reacting to the sun, they will retreat to the cold. I thought you landscaped for a living? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 LOL he did not say they were blooming, he saw the green reacting to the sun, they will retreat to the cold. I thought you landscaped for a living? Crocuses do not break ground this time of year, its most likely narcissus, which happens almost every winter close to foundations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It won't be that damaging. No big deal. Yeah I agree. Sure it may even get near a quarter inch in spots but the trees are hardy in New England...need a solid half inch to think about damage and there just isnt enough QPF. Even a half inch won't do much as I remember a March event at BTV where we didn't see tree damage till almost 3/4" of ice. Plus no strong low level northerly flow to lock in cold...latent heat release will warm everyone up quickly to 32F marginal ZR or just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Crocuses do not break ground this time of year, its most like like narcissus, which happens almost every winter close to foundations. Yep speaking of narcissism........ Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yep speaking of narcissism........ Lol Lol, thanks Steve.........in any event good luck up north guys, hope you get some snow and the models cool as the event nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Lol, thanks Steve.........in any event good luck up north guys, hope you get some snow and the models cool as the event nears. That was one of the best posts ever on AMWX by HM, thanks for referencing it. He made an interesting comment about model mayhem, if you notice that certainly has been the case lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 That was one of the best posts ever on AMWX by HM, thanks for referencing it. He made an interesting comment about model mayhem, if you notice that certainly has been the case lately. It has been, many conflicting signals right now, I see that HM Donny Baseball are looking for some potential warmth around the beginning of Feb and perhaps some chances of winter with a pna spike around superbowl weekend. It does not appear that a 2-4 week stretch of true winter will lock in, but that certainly does not mean snow and thats all I really care about. I would love to pull 15-20 inches of snow in Feb, some good analog years showing up, I know you enjoyed last week/weekend I certainly did even though it hurts to lose the pack so quickly. Hopefully we have some good times ahead, and I am sure March will throw a suprise or two at us, it usually does, i think it was in March 09 early month we had a nice snow event here the day after my sons baptisim. See ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looks like .1" could fall as snow here on the 18Z NAM and then six hours of fzra.... BTW, this torch is turning out about as I opined in Joe's torch thread a week ago. Unpleasant, but nothing crazy temp-wise. Briefly hit 45 before dawn yesterday, then 30s, upper 20s today, low 30s tomorrow, another brief spike to 40's Friday morning I guess.... I mean it's bad enough, but there was some talk of 50's etc. I figured we would avoid that stuff..... I have zero crocuses. I dont think I have ever seen a crocus in bloom in Jan in New England, earliest I have ever seen them is third week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I had a great March when I was 18 ... March 1984 had two great snowstorms. #2 in late March hit CT good also I believe. It's about time we had an epic March. It has been, many conflicting signals right now, I see that HM Donny Baseball are looking for some potential warmth around the beginning of Feb and perhaps some chances of winter with a pna spike around superbowl weekend. It does not appear that a 2-4 week stretch of true winter will lock in, but that certainly does not mean snow and thats all I really care about. I would love to pull 15-20 inches of snow in Feb, some good analog years showing up, I know you enjoyed last week/weekend I certainly did even though it hurts to lose the pack so quickly. Hopefully we have some good times ahead, and I am sure March will throw a suprise or two at us, it usually does, i think it was in March 09 early month we had a nice snow event here the day after my sons baptisim. See ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I won't miss this silly torch talk, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah I agree. Sure it may even get near a quarter inch in spots but the trees are hardy in New England...need a solid half inch to think about damage and there just isnt enough QPF. Even a half inch won't do much as I remember a March event at BTV where we didn't see tree damage till almost 3/4" of ice. Plus no strong low level northerly flow to lock in cold...latent heat release will warm everyone up quickly to 32F marginal ZR or just plain rain. Idk about Plain rain that quickly. It's always tough to scour out cold air east of the greens in these setups. Plus there will be a prolonged period of ip as well as the warm wedge of air aloft slowly thickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Idk about Plain rain that quickly. It's always tough to scour out cold air east of the greens in these setups. Plus there will be a prolonged period of ip as well as the warm wedge of air aloft slowly thickens. I'm just not too stoked on the airmass out ahead of this though. It's not like we are all sitting at 10F when this moves in. It will be like mid to upper 20 so we don't have toward up much. If precip is light it's easy to hold onto the cold but if we get a heavy slug I feel we may warm quickly without a good NEly flow supplying fresh cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm just not too stoked on the airmass out ahead of this though. It's not like we are all sitting at 10F when this moves in. It will be like mid to upper 20 so we don't have toward up much. If precip is light it's easy to hold onto the cold but if we get a heavy slug I feel we may warm quickly without a good NEly flow supplying fresh cold. Ski resorts cryin' for their mommas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I'm just not too stoked on the airmass out ahead of this though. It's not like we are all sitting at 10F when this moves in. It will be like mid to upper 20 so we don't have toward up much. If precip is light it's easy to hold onto the cold but if we get a heavy slug I feel we may warm quickly without a good NEly flow supplying fresh cold. I agree with the crappy airmass out ahead of this thing. I think the key now is seeing where that secondary LP takes over. If it takes over, over Pittsfield Mass like on the Euro, yea we're screwed, but if we can get that LP to develop enough SE (near like Worcester/Boston) we can try to lock in the cold better with an AGEO flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The NAM is really ugly for just about everyone. Some people hang onto ice, but nothing good about that for ski resorts. Starts as some -SN here I think then ice then plenty of 33-35F rain.... East of the low pressure SNE may be pushing 50.... I'm just not too stoked on the airmass out ahead of this though. It's not like we are all sitting at 10F when this moves in. It will be like mid to upper 20 so we don't have toward up much. If precip is light it's easy to hold onto the cold but if we get a heavy slug I feel we may warm quickly without a good NEly flow supplying fresh cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 NAM... great balls of fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 0z NAM is out...definitely picking up better on the CAD signal here in VT, but it has finally caught up with other guidance in warming the upper levels quicker...on other guidance my area was getting into the mid-upper 30s, now on the NAM, my areas kisses 32-33F and sinks back below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I am always in a good spot for CAD. Tons of QPF. This could be a 30-32F ice storm for me or a 33-36F rainstorm. Either way horrible for the ski areas and snowmobilers up here. Seems like each run gets juicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Looks like 2-4'' of snow by 12z in N VT before real mixing occurs..then 6 hours of moderate ip/zr with temps like 28-32F east of the Greens. West of the greens will probably spike to 33-36F pretty quickly after the initial warm surge after 12z. Could be tricky up in this area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I am always in a good spot for CAD. Tons of QPF. This could be a 30-32F ice storm for me or a 33-36F rainstorm. Either way horrible for the ski areas and snowmobilers up here. Seems like each run gets juicer. The Euro was the first to key in on the juicy qpf. Its been doing well lately with qpf. And yeah, so sad for winter recreation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yuck. Not so icy soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 3 W's on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Ski resorts cryin' for their mommas. Yeah it's been brutal this winter. I was looking at past years snowfall and man I miss those seasons where you get weeks where 7 day snowfall looks like this: 4, 9, 3, 16, 2, 5, 3" and you have 30-40"+ weeks like once or twice a month. Looking back at our daily snowfall tallies it's amazing how consistently snowy it's been the past ten years so we are due for a clunker unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 3 W's on the nam Wintry, white, and wonderful? oh wait its winter 2011-2012.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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