NYCSuburbs Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Before I get to the main point, I'm no expert in researching analogs, this is more of a simple search for years similar to this one. With no December snow observed in Central Park this winter, and January so far with 4.3", which is likely to end up very close to the final total unless one of the storm towards the weekend surprises us, I thought I'd look at other winters that have had 4 or less inches for December and January and see how similar they are to this year and what they produced for February and March. Below is a chart of most years that had 4 or less inches of snow in December and January combined compared to the total snow for February and March combined, using Upton's snow records going back to the 1860s. Out of 23 winters in that list, only two (72-73, 01-02) had less snow in the second half of the winter than the first half; those winters were among the 10 least snowiest winters on record, and both of them had slightly less snow than this year has so far. Except for these two winters as well as 1989-90, for the rest of the winters, February and March had 3 times or more the amount of snow that fell in December and January. In addition to the snow, there is also the 500mb and temperature data. Since January's data is not out yet as the month has not ended, I am using only December for comparison purposes. Starting with the 500mb data, there are definitely noticeable differences, especially in the North Atlantic and Europe, although there are also some similarities in there, such as 500mb height anomalies below average over Greenland and Alaska and above average in the eastern US, between Hawaii and Alaska, and over Russia. The 500mb height anomalies for February and March aren't a whole lot better, although they are above average towards western Alaska and eastern Russia, and are near average for the eastern US instead of above average. The temperature similarities are probably the most similar to this year; both the analog Decembers as well as this year's December featured temperatures decently warmer than average across the northern and eastern US and slightly cooler than average in the western US. Although January's temperatures aren't similar, as the analog set for January had slightly cooler than average departures in the west, both the analog set for January and this year's January were warmer than average for the eastern half of the US, and had the warmest departures in the north central US. Looking at those winters for February and March, there is likely a wide spread of solutions for the analog set, although these years averaged out to a near to slightly cooler than average February and March, which accompanies the snowier outcome for these months when compared to the first half of the winter. These are just analog years, history doesn't have to repeat itself for this year, although if these years do have something to tell about the second half of this winter, while there would not be any significant improvements in the pattern, some more cold and snow could take place in the second half of the winter compared to the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Good write up only 8% of those winters with 4in or less in the first half didn't average 3x what the first half had which leads me to believe we will probally come out with at least another 4-8in or if this year wants to be like 2001 we'll be done and bust hard I hope it's the latter though for my inner weenies own good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You forgot the 2.9" from the October storm this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You forgot the 2.9" from the October storm this year... i don't think he forgot. it's a dec/jan vs. feb/mar comparison.... literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 i don't think he forgot. it's a dec/jan vs. feb/mar comparison.... literally. a few other years had snow in November...Using those analogs here are the biggest snowfalls after 1/31... 1875-76...11.0" 2/3-4/1876 1895-96...10.0" 3/2/1896...12.0" 3/15-16/1896 1899-00.....6.1" 2/17-18/1900...5.0" 3/15/1900 1900-01.....4.0" 2/4/1901 1905-06.....6.0" 2/9/1906...6.5" 3/14-15/1906...5.0" 3/19/1906 1913-14.....9.7" 2/13-14/1914...5.3" 2/16/1914...14.5" 3/1-2/1914 1918-19.....1.4" 3/14...1.3" 3/28 1923-24.....4.9" 2/19-20/1924...8.5" 4/1/1924 1925-26...10.4" 3/3-4/1926...12.0" 2/9-10/1926 1931-32.....1.1" 2/17/1932...0.4" 3/21/1932 1954-55.....3.9" 2/2-3/1955...2.8" 3/18/1955 1971-72.....4.7" 2/6-7/1972...5.7" 2/19/1972...5.2" 2/23-24/1972 1972-73.....0.2" 3/22/1973 1974-75.....7.8" 2/12/1975 1985-86.....4.5" 2/7-8/1986...4.5" 2/11/1986 1989-90.....3.1" 3/6/1990...0.6" 4/7/1990 1991-92.....6.2" 3/19/1992...3.2" 3/22/1992 1992-93...10.6" 3/13/1993 1994-95...10.8" 2/4/1995 1997-98.....5.0" 3/22/1998 2001-02............................................ 2006-07.....5.5" 3/16/2007 2007-08.....6.0" 2/22/2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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