aslkahuna Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 A CME resulting from the M8.7/2B LDE Proton 10Flare at 23/0359Z in region 1302 is expected to reach us about 24/1418Z +/- 7 hours. Active to major Gemag storm levels with possible severe storm periods are expected. Observers are advised to watch the Gemag reports closely during the 7 hours prior to 1418Z in case the CME arrives early since the midnight to dawn sector is the best for auroral activity. Looks the Kiwis and Aussies luck out again if it comes on time. A S3 Radiation is in progress. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Are auroras most likely right as the CME arrives, or some time after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm curious how much of an effect this might have on stratospheric temperatures if any? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 nice info here on it http://www.solarham.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 CME has hit, up to Kp=4. Solar wind speed is doing nothing surprisingly, but the spike is clear in the magnetic field measurements. I'm assuming we'll see a big increase in solar wind soon but I'm no expert. http://www.swpc.noaa...SWEPAM_24h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The solar wind data is still not available since the Proton Storm began. (From the Solarham site) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 this is pretty lame so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The solar proton flux continues at high levels. After the CME impacted Earth this morning, it reached even higher (6300 pfu) and is now the largest radiation storm since October 2003. A Strong S3 Level radiation storm remains in progress. (Solarham) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 "Earlier, it was stated that the current Solar Radiation Storm was the largest since May 2005, when the 10 MeV protons exceeded over 3000 PFU. This was not correct. At the time of the earlier post, this current Storm was the biggest since January 2005, when the 10 MeV flux was 5040 pfu. After the arrival of the CME earlier today, the 10 MeV flux again increased and we were at around 6300 pfu. This is now the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003. (The Halloween Storms)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Btotal: 8.8 nT Bz: 5.4 nT north lol... hopefully things improve because that's pretty useless for northern lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Btotal: 8.8 nT Bz: 5.4 nT north lol... hopefully things improve because that's pretty useless for northern lights. We don't want it to ramp up yet! Its not even dark yet. I like that it hasn't hit it peak yet.. it was almost an Xclass flare, it's gonna produce something. We currently have a K Index of 5( per the 15 min intervals) I think we are looking good on this one with the delayed peak and cearing skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 How far south of their normal location will the aurora borealis going to get and how long will they maintain that level? If they are fairly south this weekend, a road trip might be called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 How far south of their normal location will the aurora borealis going to get and how long will they maintain that level? If they are fairly south this weekend, a road trip might be called for. This CME left the sun at nearly 5 million mph... it'll be lucky to last another 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I remember back when I was in college, I think it was either 1988 or 1989, we saw the borealis in Oneonta, on few nights in a row. So my thinking was that they would last longer than the flare itself. This CME left the sun at nearly 5 million mph... it'll be lucky to last another 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I remember back when I was in college, I think it was either 1988 or 1989, we saw the borealis in Oneonta, on few nights in a row. So my thinking was that they would last longer than the flare itself. The 1989 Gemag was caused by a much larger and slower moving CME plus a more favorable Sun-Earth Geometry. The host flare of that storm (the third most intense on record behind 1859 and 1921) was a high X-class flare and one of many that occurred with region 5395 during disk transit so we also had multiple CME hits. As seen from AZ, the 1989 aurora lasted for two nights and the GPS system crashed totally for over 24 hours. With a 24 hour A index of 388 (400 is max), the 1989 event was as Cat 5 as you can get and is the poster child for what can happen with Cat 5 Gemags based upon what DID happen. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Steve any way of knowing if the AU will make it down to near the Philly region to see the northern lights as i have never ever seen them in my nearly 33 years of life. Would love to actually see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Kp value is dropping and was probably never high enough to get AB down to New England.......need a little more than 7 or so for that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 aurora forecast (for current) looks about as good as it has all day.. dipping into new england http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Ovation_USA.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 wxbrad (Brad Panovich WCNC) Reports of people from Wilmington, NC to Charleston,SC seeing faint green #auroas looking north. h/t/@traciwilson #scwx #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 wxbrad (Brad Panovich WCNC) Reports of people from Wilmington, NC to Charleston,SC seeing faint green #auroas looking north. h/t/@traciwilson #scwx #ncwx im not sure how that's possible given the current ovals etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 im not sure how that's possible given the current ovals etc. well it is NC/SC...the "faint" green could be marijuana smoke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 well it is NC/SC...the "faint" green could be marijuana smoke? possible. it seems unlikely to be aurora especially with naked eye. havent seen any reports from further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 possible. it seems unlikely to be aurora especially with naked eye. havent seen any reports from further north. Yeah I was shocked to see that...I doubt even if it was perfectly clear here you could see anything...perhaps portions of northern NNE but the mid-Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah I was shocked to see that...I doubt even if it was perfectly clear here you could see anything...perhaps portions of northern NNE but the mid-Atlantic? he just retweeted one from va. who knows i guess. without photos im skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 he just retweeted one from va. who knows i guess. without photos im skeptical. Nothing here sw of CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah I was shocked to see that...I doubt even if it was perfectly clear here you could see anything...perhaps portions of northern NNE but the mid-Atlantic? Just took some long exposure photos since it's unexpectedly clear... not even a trace of a glow. If anyone in those two light polluted cities is seeing a visual green glow, they should probably be taking iodine pills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Just took some long exposure photos since it's unexpectedly clear... not even a trace of a glow. If anyone in those two light polluted cities is seeing a visual green glow, they should probably be taking iodine pills. the power of suggestion is powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I wonder if i'll ever get a chance to see it in my lifetime at my location. My chances would likely be much higher if I took a trip up to our place in vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I wonder if i'll ever get a chance to see it in my lifetime at my location. My chances would likely be much higher if I took a trip up to our place in vermont. i saw it in ct twice.. oct 03 of course and then in 2005 when i had a camera http://www.wundergro...ex/300?gallery= (though that pic says it was the first time so maybe the power of suggestion got me in 2003) i doubt i'll see it here but aurora and a monument would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 i saw it in ct twice.. oct 03 of course and then in 2005 when i had a camera http://www.wundergro...ex/300?gallery= (though that pic says it was the first time so maybe the power of suggestion got me in 2003) i doubt i'll see it here but aurora and a monument would be sweet. That is pretty cool. Great photo, too. It seems like we have run into a 'dead period' per se in regards to getting these down here -- but then again they seem to be incredibly rare to begin with..so the dead period may be more of a normal period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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