Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 2nd time in 2 days it showed snow solution in DC only to back off on the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 2nd time in 2 days it showed snow solution in DC only to back off on the next run Cool, thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z sucks.. Throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 2nd time in 2 days it showed snow solution in DC only to back off on the next run Doctor forgot to re-prescribe your 1000 mg chill pills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NAM has been serious garbage the last couple days with how it takes that Pacific cyclone and develops it across the plains and into the OV. Also having issues with the retrogression of the east coast upper low. It can't even get anything consistent within 48 hours for the northern plains, I wouldn't bother looking at it for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Right now the main difference to me from this year vs. the god awful 07-08 winter is the fact that it is colder and that seems to be well modeled. The storm threats appear to me anyway to be going through the same sort of gyrations as 07. Decent storm modeled in the medium to long range then it gets progressively worse as it gets closer. Best bet is to just stay cautious and look at any model with a crooked eye. Who knows whats going to happen but odds favor nothing much...so that is what I am expecting and will be pleasantly surprised if more than that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Right now the main difference to me from this year vs. the god awful 07-08 winter is the fact that it is colder and that seems to be well modeled. The storm threats appear to me anyway to be going through the same sort of gyrations as 07. Decent storm modeled in the medium to long range then it gets progressively worse as it gets closer. Best bet is to just stay cautious and look at any model with a crooked eye. Who knows whats going to happen but odds favor nothing much...so that is what I am expecting and will be pleasantly surprised if more than that happens. That's the right attitude. Surprises are always more fun anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 my weenie eyes like the look of the 84 hr NAM fwiw for the weekend system certainly more amplified and did you notice the lingering precip in the SE south of the 0-850 line at 84 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z gfs looking real good for va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z sucks.. scratch that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 thru 168 hrs-18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z gfs looking real good for va 18z GFS----the Prozac of weather models. Let's hope the good feeling lasts for more than 6 hours. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 pretty close to 0z last night, not quite as uber but good to see it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dear GFS, Slightly more west.....please. Regards, Frederick, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Dear GFS, Slightly more west.....please. Regards, Frederick, MD this is probably ideal for now... though timing a phase properly is a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 this is probably ideal for now... though timing a phase properly is a pain. I really wasn't complaining....just a thought I would ask it nicely before the 0z comes out and I let out a string of expletives. I just hope Dr. Yes returns in form tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hate to be the downer....but seriously folks, the 18z 5 days out? Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z gfs looking real good for va For future reference "VA" begins about 12mi northwest of Leesburg and ends about 15mi ESE of Dulles. All areas outside that are just "elsewhere". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Right now the main difference to me from this year vs. the god awful 07-08 winter is the fact that it is colder and that seems to be well modeled. The storm threats appear to me anyway to be going through the same sort of gyrations as 07. Decent storm modeled in the medium to long range then it gets progressively worse as it gets closer. Best bet is to just stay cautious and look at any model with a crooked eye. Who knows whats going to happen but odds favor nothing much...so that is what I am expecting and will be pleasantly surprised if more than that happens. and the insane heat that plagued that fall and a very + NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 For future reference "VA" begins about 12mi northwest of Leesburg and ends about 15mi ESE of Dulles. All areas outside that are just "elsewhere". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I like living in "St. Elsewhere" VA Do you remember the entire TV show was imagined by an autistic kid who stared into a snow globe all day? - Elsewhere is that snow globe http://en.wikipedia....e#Final_episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 2nd time in 2 days it showed snow solution in DC only to back off on the next run JI weere never in IT Never if you could only learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 JI weere never in IT Never if you could only learn Looks like 0z NAM decided to stay the course of the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 hate to be the downer....but seriously folks, the 18z 5 days out? Bleh you might want to keep and grasp the BIGGER concepts here this is not just about 1 run of the 18z GFS maybe if looked around at some of the other threads you might see that the ONLY reason why the 18z GFS carries some weight is b/c of how it fits in with respect to other models and the dec 19-20 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like 0z NAM decided to stay the course of the 18z the Massive vortex ensured that DC was NOT going to be in it earlier today I got into big debate with some RIC TV mets that even for RIC this might not be any sleet and the bigger issue would be more to the south and a flatter wave thats is huge friggin vortex over Maine .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 you might want to keep and grasp the BIGGER concepts here this is not just about 1 run of the 18z GFS maybe if looked around at some of the other threads you might see that the ONLY reason why the 18z GFS carries some weight is b/c of how it fits in with respect to other models and the dec 19-20 event easy dave. Not saying that the storm won't happen (actually, fairly bullish). I like what I have read coming from you. Just got a kick out of the waffling based on the 18z......thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the Massive vortex ensured that DC was NOT going to be in it earlier today I got into big debate with some RIC TV mets that even for RIC this might not be any sleet and the bigger issue would be more to the south and a flatter wave thats is huge friggin vortex over Maine .... Agreed. However, it looks like on this run that the vortex plays a bit more of a role and shoved the flat wave into NCat 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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