25th Anniversary of Double Whammy

[RodneyS]

On Tuesday, January 20, 1987, an article -- authored by Mary Jordan -- appeared on page B1 of the Washington Post titled: "Snow Hopes Dashed; Winter in Washington Area Falls Victim To Mild Temperatures, Rain and Sleet." The article quoted National Weather Service forecaster Calvin Meadows: "There has not been a measurable amount yet. And the reason is we're not getting the cold air from the north."

On Thursday, January 22, 1987, DCA recorded 10.8 inches of snow and IAD recorded 11.1 inches. On (Super Bowl) Sunday evening, January 25th, more snow began to fall. By the time it ended on the morning of the 26th, DCA recorded an additional 9.2 inches of snow and IAD recorded an additional 10.2 inches. The Federal Govenment was closed on the 26th, but most everyone returned to work on Tuesday, January 27th. That wasn't so bad in Maryland and Virginia, as major streets had been pretty well-plowed, but DC was a different story. Commuters trickled into the city during the morning rush hour, making traffic more or less manageable, but the evening commute was likely the worst in DC history until January 26, 2011. As the Post noted in an editorial on January 28, 1987, titled "Breakdown --Total Breakdown", "wheels were spinning on K Street" during that never-to-be-forgotten commute, even though no precipitation of any kind was falling.

So, for you snow lovers, you need to find Mary Jordan and have her write another article for the Post. But -- be careful what you wish for.

[gymengineer]

Schools were closed for five or more days, spanning across the weekend, in most of the large suburban school districts in the area (Thursday through Wednesday or later). The commute on 1/22 (Thursday), was completely terrible as well, with abandoned cars and non-moving traffic. I would argue that 1/22/87 was almost as bad as 1/26/11 in terms of commute- The Federal Government opened for business and then closed mid-morning, sending all the cars back on the road just as plowing was starting to get underway. The snow was 'supposed' to change to rain, with early morning forecasts in the 1-3" range that had to be quickly bumped up as precip remained all snow. The peak of the snow came as all those cars were on the road trying to get back home from late morning through all afternoon.

[gymengineer]

Here's the full WaPo article about the 1/22/87 first storm: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/local/longterm/library/snow/archives/1987snow.htm

Here's the full WaPo article after the 1/25-26/87 second storm: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/local/longterm/library/snow/archives/1987snow1.htm

A nice little archive they haven't taken down that spans 1987-1996: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/local/longterm/library/snow/archives/archives.htm

[midatlanticweather]

I lived in Richmond and I was in on the fun too! Played football in the snow during the superbowl with the neighborhood friends! Such a good memory!

[RIC Airport]

I lived in Richmond and I was in on the fun too! Played football in the snow during the superbowl with the neighborhood friends! Such a good memory!

Richmond officially received 16" of snow from the back to back storms. The snowdepth in the days following the two events remained in excess of 12 inches for 6 days while a solid snowcover (1"+) persisted for over two weeks. In addition, many nights had lows in the single digits and there was one day when the temperature at RIC dropped below zero. 1986-87 was a 20"+ season and there was another moderate snowstorm in late February.

[Deck Pic]

I went skiing that weekend and missed the 2nd storm as we didn't come back until Monday night. When I returned I had to walk 3 blocks to my house with my skis and stuff because my street was impassable. We got some snowshowers with the 2nd in western PA but the storm missed us. nobody plowed our street until Tuesday or Wednesday.

[midatlanticweather]

Richmond officially received 16" of snow from the back to back storms. The snowdepth in the days following the two events remained in excess of 12 inches for 6 days while a solid snowcover (1"+) persisted for over two weeks. In addition, many nights had lows in the single digits and there was one day when the temperature at RIC dropped below zero. 1986-87 was a 20"+ season and there was another moderate snowstorm in late February.

yes - was a great year!

[relic]

because of exemptions, i only had to take two exams that year/semester and they were scheduled for wednesday the 21st and friday the 23rd.

my car was hit from behind while pulling into school the morning of the 21st and i was sent home. classes were cancelled until approx. tuesday or wednesday the next week and as such the exams i was scheduled to take were cancelled. sweet.

playing football that saturday in the snow was a highlight as well.

[EastCoast NPZ]

because of exemptions, i only had to take two exams that year/semester and they were scheduled for wednesday the 21st and friday the 23rd.

my car was hit from behind while pulling into school the morning of the 21st and i was sent home. classes were cancelled until approx. tuesday or wednesday the next week and as such the exams i was scheduled to take were cancelled. sweet.

playing football that saturday in the snow was a highlight as well.

We received 12 inches with the first, and 15" from the second storm. I was in 11th grade, and schools were closed here the rest of the week (first storm), and the entire next week. I beleive it was 7 consecutive school days. Temps remained below freezing for quite some time, so we had 2' snow depth for a while. That was truly a great stretch of weather.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Here's the full WaPo article about the 1/22/87 first storm: http://www.washingto...es/1987snow.htm

Here's the full WaPo article after the 1/25-26/87 second storm: http://www.washingto...s/1987snow1.htm

A nice little archive they haven't taken down that spans 1987-1996: http://www.washingto...es/archives.htm

"Forecaster Prosise said the city has "never before had two back-to-back 10-inch storms. So this is something to remember. You'll probably never see it again."

Took 23 years.

[Sparky]

Got 11 inches in the first and 9 inches in the second in NE Baltimore. Definately the most snow on the ground after second one since Feb 83. The first storm was the most exciting one with heavier snow and gustier winds.

[usedtobe]

My HPC guidance that i put out for both storms had it as snow with over and inch liquid and had us inside of an 8" inch or greater snow line. The jan 22 storm was a big coup for the NGM over the old LFM. It's superior horizontal resolution made a big difference and kep the 850 line south of DC while the LFM had it going north. The system also had a great storm track and double jet structure. Tony Mostek had brought an early NASA monagraph version of the KU northeast storms book and the case fit KU storm morphology to a tee. It sort of showed that the KU work was good stuff.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Forgive my ignorance, but a google search doesn't define "KU" (except as the Jayhawks). Can someone explain KU for me?

[North Balti Zen]

Google "Kocin Uccellini", two mets who have done fantastic work at defining and exploring what constitutes a significant northeast snowstorm.

Their two volume book is a must have for any NE winter weather enthusiast.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Google "Kocin Ucinelli", two mets who have done fantastic work at defining and exploring what constitutes a significant northeast snowstorm.

Their two volume book is a must have for any NE winter weather enthusiast.

I will search. Thanks!

[North Balti Zen]

Misspelled...its Uccellini for the second author. Try this link:

http://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640

[North Balti Zen]

Also, this is an overview:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale

[EastCoast NPZ]

Misspelled...its Uccellini for the second author. Try this link:

http://www.amazon.co...t/dp/1878220640

Thanks. Searching via the first spelling produced only this link (as well as a couple now-defunct forum threads):

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/001/index.html

It's a good read for those interested in the (mostly non-) weather out here in the Shenandoah Valley.

The link to Amazon is appreciated.

[Huffwx]

Great wiinter-- we had a little teaser just after new years and the big ones did great in 22 and 26. Interesting fact as I was in NE DE-- if you look at the KU map you can see where it quickly went from 6-7 inch totals to 10-11 inch totals (Jan 25-26) It was a matter of miles as my house near ILG had 6 inches and 4 miles south on 13 had 11 -12 .

I am a little shocked that DC was caught off guard. We had a WsWatch AM issued on the 21st with the watch continued with the afternoon package. It was worder-- 1-2 inches, changing to rain. Warnings issues N and W of Philly. Very early-- not the late evning change but more like 8 PM the watch was upgraded to a warning with it worded-- Snow, accumulation 4 inches and then changing to sleet and rain. I went to be fired up. Woke up the next morning and the early am package was 6-8 inches, possiblily mixing with sleet and rain-- upgraded ot 8-10 before I left for school (830 when the snow started) we literally left school as soon as we got there and it was changed to around a foot. We had a little sleet mix in as the heaviest of snow were winding down, but nothing of note-- and flurries lasted well into the late evening.

[usedtobe]

Great wiinter-- we had a little teaser just after new years and the big ones did great in 22 and 26. Interesting fact as I was in NE DE-- if you look at the KU map you can see where it quickly went from 6-7 inch totals to 10-11 inch totals (Jan 25-26) It was a matter of miles as my house near ILG had 6 inches and 4 miles south on 13 had 11 -12 .

I am a little shocked that DC was caught off guard. We had a WsWatch AM issued on the 21st with the watch continued with the afternoon package. It was worder-- 1-2 inches, changing to rain. Warnings issues N and W of Philly. Very early-- not the late evning change but more like 8 PM the watch was upgraded to a warning with it worded-- Snow, accumulation 4 inches and then changing to sleet and rain. I went to be fired up. Woke up the next morning and the early am package was 6-8 inches, possiblily mixing with sleet and rain-- upgraded ot 8-10 before I left for school (830 when the snow started) we literally left school as soon as we got there and it was changed to around a foot. We had a little sleet mix in as the heaviest of snow were winding down, but nothing of note-- and flurries lasted well into the late evening.

It all had to do with the rain snow one on the 13th. The LFM had the 850 temps warming up after 2-4 inches and that was what the forecast office went with. I worked the evening shift and the ngm came in cold and i issued a forecast for heavy snow. The NGM was the new model on the block and I'm not sure whether the dc forecast office saw it or not. I did contact them and told them what my guidance was going to be. Back then coordination was not as routine as it is today. I was pretty much blown off by the lead forecaster. He was older than I was and probably thought I was an upstart. However, even the NGM didn't come around to an all snow solution for DCA until 12 hours prior to the event so it wasn't like the models did a great job on the storm. It was a tough forecast as the temps were marginal until the vertial motion kicked in.

[Huffwx]

It all had to do with the rain snow one on the 13th. The LFM had the 850 temps warming up after 2-4 inches and that was what the forecast office went with. I worked the evening shift and the ngm came in cold and i issued a forecast for heavy snow. The NGM was the new model on the block and I'm not sure whether the dc forecast office saw it or not. I did contact them and told them what my guidance was going to be. Back then coordination was not as routine as it is today. I was pretty much blown off by the lead forecaster. He was older than I was and probably thought I was an upstart. However, even the NGM didn't come around to an all snow solution for DCA until 12 hours prior to the event so it wasn't like the models did a great job on the storm. It was a tough forecast as the temps were marginal until the vertial motion kicked in.

Thanks for the response, Wes-- I always appreciate your personal stories like this and the one you've told about PD1.

I suppose me being a little NE of DC at the time game the NWS ILG office a little better lead time. (Three hours is huge-- but it was raging snow as far south as TN over night-- )

Is it safe to say that the models today would have a better handle on it?

[gymengineer]

Thanks for the response, Wes-- I always appreciate your personal stories like this and the one you've told about PD1.

I suppose me being a little NE of DC at the time game the NWS ILG office a little better lead time. (Three hours is huge-- but it was raging snow as far south as TN over night-- )

Is it safe to say that the models today would have a better handle on it?

It stated in the article that the DC government followed Accu-Weather, which was predicting 4+" of snow, so they shut down. The Federal Government apparently went with the NWS and said that the NWS forecast was only for "an inch or two" of snow. But, you know how people always like to blame the weathermen, so I wonder what the actual forecast text was put out by the NWS in the overnight shift.

[usedtobe]

It stated in the article that the DC government followed Accu-Weather, which was predicting 4+" of snow, so they shut down. The Federal Government apparently went with the NWS and said that the NWS forecast was only for "an inch or two" of snow. But, you know how people always like to blame the weathermen, so I wonder what the actual forecast text was put out by the NWS in the overnight shift.

The actual nws local forecast for dc was 2-4 with the snow then changing to rain IIRC.

[usedtobe]

Thanks for the response, Wes-- I always appreciate your personal stories like this and the one you've told about PD1.

I suppose me being a little NE of DC at the time game the NWS ILG office a little better lead time. (Three hours is huge-- but it was raging snow as far south as TN over night-- )

Is it safe to say that the models today would have a better handle on it?

I think they would have done better and we'd have more lead time as the models have come a long way from then. Still the rain snow line can be tricky.

[gymengineer]

I think they would have done better and we'd have more lead time as the models have come a long way from then. Still the rain snow line can be tricky.

this was a one of our best thread-the-needle events, right?

[Deck Pic]

this was a one of our best thread-the-needle events, right?

has to be...

[usedtobe]

this was a one of our best thread-the-needle events, right?

Yes and no. I say that because it had many of the things we look for to get a snowstorm in the dc area. A closed low coming across the south inducing a surface low in the gulf, A strong negative NAO with a low just east of Nova Scotia (the 50 50 low) and baroclinic zone near the coast. Around 12 hours before the storm look where the low was located and look how cold the 850 temps were. We were also getting to be in the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet.

[gymengineer]

I could swear though that there were posts prior to the 1/17/08 storm about this storm being an anomaly in terms of the pattern producing... and being a slight analog to the 1/08 event.

[Deck Pic]

I could swear though that there were posts prior to the 1/17/08 storm about this storm being an anomaly in terms of the pattern producing... and being a slight analog to the 1/08 event.

the big deal was the lack of a cold air source...there was no real formidable high pressure in place and no closed 500mb low so we needed a good track which we got...I think in that sense it was "thread the needle", though looking back the air mass in place was quite legit

[Swiscaster]

I had just started as a Washington Post paperboy earlier that fall and I remember on the morning of the second storm, the roads were so bad that the distribution truck just dumped the 100 newspapers at the intersection of the main road near my neighborhood instead of neatly on my driveway per usual. I forget how I figured out where they were, but I remember I took a sled up to where the papers were, piled them in the sled, and sledded them back to my house to put them in the plastic bags. I also remember trudging through the deep snow delivering those things and was worried that people would complain about their papers being late, since it took me an extra hour to deliver. Actually, though, when I went door-to-door to collect people's money later that month, I got compliment after compliment regarding how reliable I was despite the weather. I got massive tips and became a neighborhood legend. My parents still live in that neighborhood and when the neighbors see me when I visit, they still mention how great of a paperboy I was, in large part because of that particular week!