superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I hope that this hasn't already been posted. Nevertheless, I was at the AMS Central Chapter meeting last Thursday and NWS RAH Chief Forecaster Darin Figursky spoke. He showed a short presentation about the differences between the 1971-200 normals and the 1981-2010 normals at KRDU. Anyways, two interestings things were noted. One was that the average temperature at KRDU rose from 59.8 to 60.6 degrees. The other was that the average snowfall per winter declined from 7.5"/year to only 5.9"/year. I also noticed that KGSO's snowfall totals went down from 8.5" to 7.7"/year (at least, I think KGSO was averaging 8.5"/year for the 1971-2000 average?). It is something interesting to note and goes to show that the previous decade was not a great one for snowfall. http://www.erh.noaa....010.normals.php http://www.erh.noaa....w.1981.2010.pdf http://www.erh.noaa....w.1981.2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I hope that this hasn't already been posted. Nevertheless, I was at the AMS Central Chapter meeting last Thursday and Chief Forecaster Darin Figursky spoke. He showed a short presentation about the differences between the 1971-200 normals and the 1981-2010 normals at KRDU. Anyways, two interestings things were noted. One was that the average temperature at KRDU rose from 59.8 to 60.6 degrees. The other was that the average snowfall per winter declined from 7.5"/year to only 5.9"/year. I also noticed that KGSO's snowfall totals went down from 8.5" to 7.7"/year (at least, I think KGSO was averaging 8.5"/year for the 1971-2000 average?). It is something interesting to note and goes to show that the previous decade was not a great one for snowfall. http://www.erh.noaa....010.normals.php http://www.erh.noaa....w.1981.2010.pdf http://www.erh.noaa....w.1981.2010.pdf I don't think that snowfall averages should be based on 30-year averages because, especially in the South, the normals are heavily reliant on just a handful of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelathos Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Long term (100 year) temperature trend for the Southeast is quite steady, but it also shows a 30 year trend similar to the one you cite. It helps that the 1960-70s were the lowest point on the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I would think a 50 or 100 year average would be better. Seems just as you are cycling into a new period you have to use they average from old period. Hasn't there been some research revealing 30 year cycles in the weather(snowfall specifically)? Nashville's avg has been as high as 12" and now down to near 6" due to the snow drought of the last two decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Classic example of one event skewing averages is for BHM. Average seasonal snowfall is 1.7" about 25% of that is due to March '93 alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 RDU's 50+ year average, 1950-2011, is about 7". The 90's was an awful decade where we only averaged about 2.9" of snow. Throw out that decade and our average is 7.7" over those 42 years. Our average since the 90's (2000-2011) is 7.5". The years we actually get snow (seasons with at least 1" of snow) we average about 9" of snow. In the past 124 years we have had 12 seasons with less than 1" of snow and only 1 with no trace of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Oh, what fun we can have with averages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Calloway Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Classic example of one event skewing averages is for BHM. Average seasonal snowfall is 1.7" about 25% of that is due to March '93 alone. Overall, the average snowfall for B'ham has basicly stayed the same throughout the decades. When the new normals are issued every 10 years, the normal stays within 1.5-1.7 inches. Whenever there's a big storm in a particular month, it's eventually raised (ex:March), but the other months drop to even it out. B'ham snowfall averages: 1896-2011: Jan .8, Feb, .3, March .3, Dec. .3 Total: 1.7 1981-2010: Jan .7, Feb. .2, March .6, Dec. .2 Total: 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 In 2011, the contiguous United States (CONUS) average annual temperature of 53.8 degrees F (12.1 degrees C) was 1.0 degree F (0.6 degree C) above the 20th century average, and was the 23rd warmest year on record. Since 1895, the CONUS has observed a long-term temperature increase of about 0.12 degree F (0.07 degree C) per decade. Precipitation across the CONUS in 2011 was 0.36 inch below the long-term average (LTA). Over the long-term, precipitation averaged across the CONUS, is increasing at a rate of about 0.18 inch (4.6 mm) per decade. http://www.daculawea...ate_summary.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 One thing I did note is that much of Raliegh's snowfall decrease seemed to be during the month of February. I can't remember the last significant February snowstorm we had, as a matter of fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 One thing I did note is that much of Raliegh's snowfall decrease seemed to be during the month of February. I can't remember the last significant February snowstorm we had, as a matter of fact. Feb 2004 was the last 6"+ snow storm for RDU. We haven't had a 6" Jan snow event since 2002. Quite the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 As Robert pointed out in his Winter Forecast, the long term trend for the NAO is headed downward. And as he also stated, we will still have our ups and downs, but the trend is encouraging for future winter weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Feb 2004 was the last 6"+ snow storm for RDU. We haven't had a 6" Jan snow event since 2002. Quite the drought. Forgot about that one. The Triad area got close to a foot in some cases and even more fell into Randolph County. I didn't live in NC then, so I am not very familar with it, though. I do recall being very irritated since I moved away from NC in December 2003 only to see a massive snowstorm brew up in February 2004... It looks like some portions of Raleigh may have picked up 6" in the Inauguration Day Snowstorm in 2009, but the airport was northwest of the main bulk of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Forgot about that one. The Triad area got close to a foot in some cases and even more fell into Randolph County. I didn't live in NC then, so I am not very familar with it, though. I do recall being very irritated since I moved away from NC in December 2003 only to see a massive snowstorm brew up in February 2004... It looks like some portions of Raleigh may have picked up 6" in the Inauguration Day Snowstorm in 2009, but the airport was northwest of the main bulk of the snow. Yeah, I got 6 but RDU officially didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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