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Jan. 25-27 Storm Thread


Nic

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It's so soupy outside. Were not getting squat.

The HRRR, which I have followed ever since it was the first model to catch onto our surprise snowstorm Feb 5th last winter, shows the first hints of snow showing up in MI (well to our NW) not until 9-10pm. Then light snow accumulations in SE MI after midnight. Expected zilch until the afternoon models hinted at some snow, and I will take as many nickels and dimes as ma nature wants to give us in a winter like this.

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The HRRR, which I have followed ever since it was the first model to catch onto our surprise snowstorm Feb 5th last winter, shows the first hints of snow showing up in MI (well to our NW) not until 9-10pm. Then light snow accumulations in SE MI after midnight. Expected zilch until the afternoon models hinted at some snow, and I will take as many nickels and dimes as ma nature wants to give us in a winter like this.

DTX just lowered amounts from 1-2" to inch or less. Its simply to warm. Story of the winter around here.

Baroclinic Leaf is moving into the region well north and northwest

of earlier model projections...which requires major adjustments to

the forecast as an area of rain will spread through the area this

evening and actually focus northwest of metropolitan Detroit...through the

Genesee and Saginaw Valley area into The Thumb. Rain will gradually

mix with snow along/north of I 69 during the evening with light

accumulations possible...perhaps in the 1-2 inch range over parts

of The Thumb where precipitation may fall primarily as snow and

an inch or less west/southwest back to near Flint and Saginaw.

This more northern track will also keep precipitation as rain much

longer from Detroit south as a rain/snow mix holds off until about

midnight at the earliest with a change to snow overnight as the

precipitation is ending. In these regions...will lower snowfall

accumulations from the previous 1-3 inches to an inch or less.

To the point...surface temperatures have held steadily around 34f

in most locations so do not anticipate widespread freezing rain as

precipitation will most likely be transitioning to snow by the

time 32f surface readings are widespread.

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The HRRR, which I have followed ever since it was the first model to catch onto our surprise snowstorm Feb 5th last winter, shows the first hints of snow showing up in MI (well to our NW) not until 9-10pm. Then light snow accumulations in SE MI after midnight. Expected zilch until the afternoon models hinted at some snow, and I will take as many nickels and dimes as ma nature wants to give us in a winter like this.

The Feb 5th system was completely different than this current one.

Don't expect a suprise.

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DTX just lowered amounts from 1-2" to inch or less. Its simply to warm. Story of the winter around here.

Baroclinic Leaf is moving into the region well north and northwest

of earlier model projections...which requires major adjustments to

the forecast as an area of rain will spread through the area this

evening and actually focus northwest of metropolitan Detroit...through the

Genesee and Saginaw Valley area into The Thumb. Rain will gradually

mix with snow along/north of I 69 during the evening with light

accumulations possible...perhaps in the 1-2 inch range over parts

of The Thumb where precipitation may fall primarily as snow and

an inch or less west/southwest back to near Flint and Saginaw.

This more northern track will also keep precipitation as rain much

longer from Detroit south as a rain/snow mix holds off until about

midnight at the earliest with a change to snow overnight as the

precipitation is ending. In these regions...will lower snowfall

accumulations from the previous 1-3 inches to an inch or less.

To the point...surface temperatures have held steadily around 34f

in most locations so do not anticipate widespread freezing rain as

precipitation will most likely be transitioning to snow by the

time 32f surface readings are widespread.

:facepalm:

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:facepalm: Is it spring yet?. This is getting really old

\

I actually was thinking about the same thing...can this winter just be finished..,.Sometimes I think it's worthless living up here with all these gray/ugly snowless days lol..We couldn't even get a foot of snow with the GHD blizzard..how pathetic.. lol

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\

I actually was thinking about the same thing...can this winter just be finished..,.Sometimes I think it's worthless living up here with all these gray/ugly snowless days lol..We could not even get a foot of snow with the GHD blizzard..how pathetic.. lol

Another month will be done

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Dry everwhere except OH, MI where it is still above normal. lol This spring it will be cold with a damaging April freeze/snow , mark my words. The NAO and AO will be negative until August.lol

:facepalm:

Maybe this winter is 10 years worth of boring weather, and now we will have 5-10 more good winters in a row after this one.

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Dry everwhere except OH, MI where it is still above normal. lol This spring it will be cold with a damaging April freeze/snow , mark my words. The NAO and AO will be negative until August.lol

:facepalm:

Maybe this winter is 10 years worth of boring weather, and now we will have 5-10 more good winters in a row after this one.

I totally agree. History has shown that warm winters are followed by cold springs. This was even noticed by people in the 19th century, according Sidney Pearley's Historic Storms of New England.

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HRRR remains very firm with a thin band of snow on the back edge. Its funny, this is very similar to the setup we saw in late Nov and early Dec, large areas of rain with a very thin snowband on the back edge. At that time of year its understandable...but in January!? Oh well maybe will wake up to some white. This could be the 3rd straight week we go through the same thing...snowy Fri-Sun, then the new week dawns mild and snowfree.

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